AAAlcoa Corporation
Options Analysis Report•PRIMARY PRODUCTION OF ALUMINUM
Market Cap $17.4B|NYSE
● 2026-05-15$66.02
NEUTRAL
Analysis: 2026-05-14 EOD data
1Y +130.3%YTD +16.8%7D +4.5%
Options Vol
12,326
30D
Implied Move
±16.3%
IV Rank
33%
AA Options Overview
IV is elevated. Conditions favor premium sellers.
REWARDS
RISK ANALYSIS
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Value
Is IV priced right?
5.6
ExpensiveCheap
Measures whether options are cheap, fair, or rich relative to historical and peer
IV
levels.Risk Checks4/9 checks passed
IV Rank
≤35%IV Rank 71.0% — elevated vs history
IV/HV Ratio
<1.05xIV/HV 1.23x — IV premium over HV
Sector Relative≤50%
Sector percentile 56% — above sector median
Term Structure
<1.1xFront/Back 1.01x — flat
Skew Normal
<1.25xPut/Call IV 1.16x — elevated
Absolute IV
<80%ATM IV 58.8% — normal range
Spread-Adjusted Value
<80%Effective IV 89.7% (ATM 58.8% + spread 15.4% + bias) — expensive
Execution Efficiency
<3.0%Total drag 21.72% (spread 15.45% + slippage 6.27%) — high friction
Vega Efficiency
≥5.0Vega efficiency 5.81 (vega 8.973 / spread 15.45%) — acceptable
Sentiment
Bullish or bearish?
4.9
BearishBullish
Analyzes
put/call ratios
, open interest skew
, and flow direction to determine market bias.Risk ChecksBearish - Moderate signal (Conviction: -26%, Raw: -14%)
Flow Direction
|net sentiment| ≥25%Conviction-weighted: -26% (bearish) — Raw: -14%
OI Skew Magnitude
≥15%|OI skew| 6.8% — balanced
Volume-OI Alignment
Same sign, |vol skew| ≥10%Vol skew +10.2%, OI skew +6.8% — aligned
Conviction Quality
≥2/3 conditions0-DTE 21%, far-OTM 15%, avg DTE 30
OI Momentum
|change| ≥3%OI change +0.0% (5d) — stable
Smart Money Flow
|weighted flow| ≥20%ITM: -7%, ATM: -7%, OTM: -15% — neutral (ITM/ATM aligned)
Sector Relative≤40% or ≥60%
Sector P/C percentile 73% — very bearish vs sector
Activity
Unusual activity?
4.0
QuietActive
Detects volume surges,
block trades
, and unusual options activity that may signal moves.Risk Checks2/9 checks passed
Volume Surge
≥1.5xVolume 0.7x avg — normal
Turnover Rate
≥15%Vol/OI 4.7% — normal turnover
Strike Concentration
≥60%Top 3 strikes = 50% — dispersed
Multi-Day Persistence
≥2 days1 day(s) elevated — may be one-day event
OI Build
≥5%OI change +13.3% (5d) — building
Sector Relative≥60%
Sector activity percentile 77% — active vs sector
Trade Quality
≥30%Large trade volume 13% — mostly retail
Execution Urgency
≥60%Aggressive execution 31% — patient
Flow Conviction
≥30Conviction -26 (bearish) — mixed
Liquidity
Can I trade efficiently?
3.5
IlliquidLiquid
Evaluates
bid-ask spreads
, volume depth, and open interest for trade execution quality.Risk Checks3/8 checks passed
Tradeable Spread
≤5.0%Spread 15.4% — wide
Adequate OI
≥10,000OI 263,247 — deep
Active Volume
≥500Volume 12,326/day — active
Reasonable Cost
≤$0.50$0.77 to cross — expensive
Strike Coverage
≥5 strikes0 liquid strikes — limited options
Sector Relative≤40%
Sector spread percentile 76% — wider than sector
Order Book Depth
≥100 contractsDepth 344.6 contracts (bid:179.9 ask:164.7) — adequate
Execution Quality
<1.0%Avg slippage 6.27% — poor
Timing
Is now a good time?
7.2
RiskyFavorable
Considers earnings proximity,
time decay
, and event calendar for optimal entry timing.Risk Checks7/9 checks passed
Term Structure Clarity
|slope| ≥5%Slope +0.9% — flat/unclear
IV Percentile Clarity
<30 or >70IV percentile 71% — seller opportunity
Event Detection
≥10pts kinkIV kink 1.8pts — no clear event
Theta/Vega Clarity
<0.5 or >2.0θ/ν ratio 141.30 — favors income trades
Expiration Distribution
≥3 expirations5 liquid expirations — flexible
Event Risk
≥60% (safe)safe window: No events detected
Spread Momentum
<1.2 ratioSpread ratio 1.00x — stable
Flow Momentum
≥25% strength + ≥50% consistencyFlow -26% @ 63% consistency — moderate (bearish)
Smart Money Timing
≥40 composite scoreScore 43 (ITM 20% + inst 13%) — moderate institutional
Directional Strategy Fit
Option Buyers
Long Calls5.3
bullishIV fair, mixed flow
Long Puts5.4
bearishIV fair, mixed flow
Premium Sellers
Cash-Secured Put4.8
bullishIV fair, mixed flow
Covered Call4.9
bearishIV fair, mixed flow
For educational purposes only. Not investment advice.