AALAmerican Airlines Group Inc.
Options Analysis Report•AIR TRANSPORTATION, SCHEDULED
Market Cap $8.4B|NASDAQ
● 2026-05-15$12.70
NEUTRAL
Analysis: 2026-05-14 EOD data
1Y +8.0%YTD -18.0%7D -4.9%
Options Vol
41,031
30D
Implied Move
±13.7%
IV Rank
43%
AAL Options Overview
bearish flow. No clear edge detected.
REWARDS
RISK ANALYSIS
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Value
Is IV priced right?
5.5
ExpensiveCheap
Measures whether options are cheap, fair, or rich relative to historical and peer
IV
levels.Risk Checks5/9 checks passed
IV Rank
≤35%IV Rank 59.7% — elevated vs history
IV/HV Ratio
<1.05xIV/HV 1.04x — IV ≤ HV
Sector Relative≤50%
Sector percentile 57% — above sector median
Term Structure
<1.1xFront/Back 0.90x — contango
Skew Normal
<1.25xPut/Call IV 1.16x — elevated
Absolute IV
<80%ATM IV 49.3% — normal range
Spread-Adjusted Value
<80%Effective IV 71.6% (ATM 49.3% + spread 11.2% + bias) — fair
Execution Efficiency
<3.0%Total drag 18.69% (spread 11.16% + slippage 7.53%) — high friction
Vega Efficiency
≥5.0Vega efficiency 0.90 (vega 1.001 / spread 11.16%) — spread drag
Sentiment
Bullish or bearish?
3.6
BearishBullish
Analyzes
put/call ratios
, open interest skew
, and flow direction to determine market bias.Risk ChecksBearish - Moderate signal (Conviction: -15%, Raw: -7%)
Flow Direction
|net sentiment| ≥25%Conviction-weighted: -15% (bearish) — Raw: -7%
OI Skew Magnitude
≥15%|OI skew| 29.0% — put-heavy
Volume-OI Alignment
Same sign, |vol skew| ≥10%Vol skew -13.3%, OI skew -29.0% — aligned
Conviction Quality
≥2/3 conditions0-DTE 34%, far-OTM 15%, avg DTE 30
OI Momentum
|change| ≥3%OI change +0.0% (5d) — stable
Smart Money Flow
|weighted flow| ≥20%ITM: -0%, ATM: -7%, OTM: -7% — neutral (ITM/ATM aligned)
Sector Relative≤40% or ≥60%
Sector P/C percentile 82% — very bearish vs sector
Activity
Unusual activity?
3.1
QuietActive
Detects volume surges,
block trades
, and unusual options activity that may signal moves.Risk Checks1/9 checks passed
Volume Surge
≥1.5xVolume 0.3x avg — normal
Turnover Rate
≥15%Vol/OI 1.4% — normal turnover
Strike Concentration
≥60%Top 3 strikes = 50% — dispersed
Multi-Day Persistence
≥2 days1 day(s) elevated — may be one-day event
OI Build
≥5%OI change +2.8% (5d) — building
Sector Relative≥60%
Sector activity percentile 37% — below sector avg
Trade Quality
≥30%Large trade volume 31% — institutional presence
Execution Urgency
≥60%Aggressive execution 56% — patient
Flow Conviction
≥30Conviction -15 (bearish) — mixed
Liquidity
Can I trade efficiently?
4.6
IlliquidLiquid
Evaluates
bid-ask spreads
, volume depth, and open interest for trade execution quality.Risk Checks3/8 checks passed
Tradeable Spread
≤5.0%Spread 11.2% — wide
Adequate OI
≥10,000OI 2,940,928 — deep
Active Volume
≥500Volume 41,031/day — active
Reasonable Cost
≤$0.50$0.56 to cross — expensive
Strike Coverage
≥5 strikes0 liquid strikes — limited options
Sector Relative≤40%
Sector spread percentile 74% — wider than sector
Order Book Depth
≥100 contractsDepth 545.3 contracts (bid:298.5 ask:246.8) — deep
Execution Quality
<1.0%Avg slippage 7.53% — poor
Timing
Is now a good time?
7.5
RiskyFavorable
Considers earnings proximity,
time decay
, and event calendar for optimal entry timing.Risk Checks6/9 checks passed
Term Structure Clarity
|slope| ≥5%Slope -10.0% — contango
IV Percentile Clarity
<30 or >70IV percentile 60% — neutral
Event Detection
≥10pts kinkIV kink -3.3pts — no clear event
Theta/Vega Clarity
<0.5 or >2.0θ/ν ratio 59.60 — favors income trades
Expiration Distribution
≥3 expirations5 liquid expirations — flexible
Event Risk
≥60% (safe)safe window: No events detected
Spread Momentum
<1.2 ratioSpread ratio 1.00x — stable
Flow Momentum
≥25% strength + ≥50% consistencyFlow -15% @ 58% consistency — unclear
Smart Money Timing
≥40 composite scoreScore 61 (ITM 20% + inst 31%) — HIGH institutional
Directional Strategy Fit
Option Buyers
Long Calls5.0
bullishIV fair, bearish flow
Long Puts6.0
bearishIV fair, bearish flow
Premium Sellers
Cash-Secured Put4.7
bullishIV fair, bearish flow
Covered Call5.6
bearishIV fair, bearish flow
For educational purposes only. Not investment advice.