Options/AAP

AAPADVANCE AUTO PARTS INC

Options Analysis Report•RETAIL-AUTO & HOME SUPPLY STORES

Market Cap $2.6B|NYSE

● 2026-09-11$43.31

NEUTRAL

Analysis: 2026-09-10 EOD data

1Y -30.4%YTD +11.4%7D -2.0%

Options Vol

3,409

30D

Implied Move

±14.0%

IV Rank

11%

AAP Options Overview

IV is elevated. No clear edge detected.

REWARDS

RISK ANALYSIS

Snowflake Analysis

Balanced conditions with no clear edge

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AAP Gamma Walls

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AAP Hedge Radar

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Full Hedge Radar

Fragility reads high; protection is priced cheap. Neither axis is a forecast — this is where AAP sits on protection cost vs. fragility today.

Protection is priced in the cheap band (2) — options are pricing vol 54% below what the stock has actually been realizing, and downside puts carry 0.3 IV points more than at-the-money, measured against this name's own rolling 21-trading-day realized moves (483 overlapping windows). Fragility reads fragile (6.36): its realized-vol regime is expanding, and it is trading 1% above its hedge wall on a wall graded MEDIUM for reliability.

Protection cost

2.00/ 10cheap

Basis: cross_sectional

Fragility

6.36/ 10fragile

Basis: per_ticker

Value

Is IV priced right?

6.8

ExpensiveCheap

Measures whether options are cheap, fair, or rich relative to historical and peer

levels.

Risk Checks6/9 checks passed

IV Rank

≤35%

IV Rank 72.8% — elevated vs history

IV/HV Ratio

<1.05x

IV/HV 0.48x — IV ≤ HV

Sector Relative≤50%

Sector percentile 76% — above sector median

Term Structure

<1.1x

Front/Back 0.87x — contango

Skew Normal

<1.25x

Put/Call IV 1.16x — elevated

Absolute IV

<80%

ATM IV 51.1% — normal range

Spread-Adjusted Value

<80%

Effective IV 79.7% (ATM 51.1% + spread 14.3% + bias) — fair

Execution Efficiency

<3.0%

Total drag 23.64% (spread 14.30% + slippage 9.34%) — high friction

Vega Efficiency

≥5.0

Vega efficiency 6.89 (vega 9.850 / spread 14.30%) — acceptable

Sentiment

Bullish or bearish?

5.2

BearishBullish

Analyzes

put/call ratios

open interest skew

, and flow direction to determine market bias.

Risk ChecksBullish - Moderate signal (Conviction: +23%, Raw: +32%)

Flow Direction

|net sentiment| ≥25%

Conviction-weighted: +23% (bullish) — Raw: +32%

OI Skew Magnitude

≥15%

|OI skew| 33.2% — call-heavy

Volume-OI Alignment

Same sign, |vol skew| ≥10%

Vol skew -43.5%, OI skew +33.2% — divergent (opposite)

Conviction Quality

≥2/3 conditions

0-DTE 45%, far-OTM 15%, avg DTE 30

OI Momentum

|change| ≥3%

OI change +0.0% (5d) — stable

Smart Money Flow

|weighted flow| ≥20%

ITM: +5%, ATM: +78%, OTM: +18% — strong bullish (ITM/ATM aligned)

Sector Relative≤40% or ≥60%

Sector P/C percentile 80% — very bearish vs sector

Activity

Unusual activity?

3.5

QuietActive

Detects volume surges,

block trades

, and unusual options activity that may signal moves.

Risk Checks1/8 checks passed

Volume Surge

≥1.5x

Volume 0.3x avg — normal

Turnover Rate

≥15%

Vol/OI 3.6% — normal turnover

Multi-Day Persistence

≥2 days

1 day(s) elevated — may be one-day event

OI Build

≥5%

OI change +1.8% (5d) — stable

Sector Relative≥60%

Sector activity percentile 61% — active vs sector

Trade Quality

≥30%

Large trade volume 28% — mixed

Execution Urgency

≥60%

Aggressive execution 43% — patient

Flow Conviction

≥30

Conviction +23 (bullish) — mixed

Liquidity

Can I trade efficiently?

3.2

IlliquidLiquid

Evaluates

bid-ask spreads

, volume depth, and open interest for trade execution quality.

Risk Checks3/8 checks passed

Tradeable Spread

≤5.0%

Spread 14.3% — wide

Adequate OI

≥10,000

OI 95,820 — deep

Active Volume

≥500

Volume 3,409/day — adequate

Reasonable Cost

≤$0.50

$0.72 to cross — expensive

Strike Coverage

≥5 strikes

0 liquid strikes — limited options

Sector Relative≤40%

Sector spread percentile 86% — much wider than sector

Order Book Depth

≥100 contracts

Depth 151.7 contracts (bid:85.3 ask:66.4) — adequate

Execution Quality

<1.0%

Avg slippage 9.34% — poor

Timing

Is now a good time?

7.0

RiskyFavorable

Considers earnings proximity,

time decay

, and event calendar for optimal entry timing.

Risk Checks6/9 checks passed

Term Structure Clarity

|slope| ≥5%

Slope -12.5% — contango

IV Percentile Clarity

<30 or >70

IV percentile 73% — seller opportunity

Event Detection

≥10pts kink

IV kink -3.0pts — no clear event

Theta/Vega Clarity

<0.5 or >2.0

θ/ν ratio 482.84 — favors income trades

Expiration Distribution

≥3 expirations

4 liquid expirations — flexible

Event Risk

≥60% (safe)

caution advised: FOMC in 5d; CPI in 0d (HIGH)

Spread Momentum

<1.2 ratio

Spread ratio 1.00x — stable

Flow Momentum

≥25% strength + ≥50% consistency

Flow +23% @ 62% consistency — unclear

Smart Money Timing

≥40 composite score

Score 58 (ITM 20% + inst 28%) — moderate institutional

Directional Strategy Fit

Option Buyers

Long Calls5.7

bullishIV cheap, mixed flow

Long Puts5.6

bearishIV cheap, mixed flow

Premium Sellers

Cash-Secured Put4.5

bullishIV too cheap, mixed flow

Covered Call4.3

bearishIV too cheap, mixed flow

For educational purposes only. Not investment advice.

The Options Desk tracks the move options price into every US earnings report the week of Sep 7, next to how much each stock has actually moved on its past prints — plus the SPY, QQQ and IWM expected ranges and the gamma walls that box them in.

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