ALKAlaska Air Group, Inc.
Options Analysis Report•AIR TRANSPORTATION, SCHEDULED
Market Cap $4.3B|NYSE
● 2026-05-15$38.16
NEUTRAL
Analysis: 2026-05-14 EOD data
1Y -28.0%YTD -25.9%7D -6.6%
Options Vol
2,631
30D
Implied Move
±8.6%
IV Rank
85%
ALK Options Overview
IV is elevated. No clear edge detected.
REWARDS
RISK ANALYSIS
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Value
Is IV priced right?
3.9
ExpensiveCheap
Measures whether options are cheap, fair, or rich relative to historical and peer
IV
levels.Risk Checks4/9 checks passed
IV Rank
≤35%IV Rank 75.1% — elevated vs history
IV/HV Ratio
<1.05xIV/HV 1.10x — IV premium over HV
Sector Relative≤50%
Sector percentile 77% — above sector median
Term Structure
<1.1xFront/Back 1.01x — flat
Skew Normal
<1.25xPut/Call IV 1.16x — elevated
Absolute IV
<80%ATM IV 63.8% — normal range
Spread-Adjusted Value
<80%Effective IV 87.2% (ATM 63.8% + spread 11.7% + bias) — expensive
Execution Efficiency
<3.0%Total drag 16.49% (spread 11.70% + slippage 4.79%) — high friction
Vega Efficiency
≥5.0Vega efficiency 9.54 (vega 11.162 / spread 11.70%) — efficient
Sentiment
Bullish or bearish?
5.9
BearishBullish
Analyzes
put/call ratios
, open interest skew
, and flow direction to determine market bias.Risk ChecksBearish - Strong signal (Conviction: -16%, Raw: -29%)
Flow Direction
|net sentiment| ≥25%Conviction-weighted: -16% (bearish) — Raw: -29%
OI Skew Magnitude
≥15%|OI skew| 25.7% — call-heavy
Volume-OI Alignment
Same sign, |vol skew| ≥10%Vol skew +48.5%, OI skew +25.7% — aligned
Conviction Quality
≥2/3 conditions0-DTE 24%, far-OTM 15%, avg DTE 30
OI Momentum
|change| ≥3%OI change +0.0% (5d) — stable
Smart Money Flow
|weighted flow| ≥20%ITM: -76%, ATM: -29%, OTM: -24% — strong bearish (ITM/ATM aligned)
Sector Relative≤40% or ≥60%
Sector P/C percentile 39% — bullish vs sector
Activity
Unusual activity?
3.4
QuietActive
Detects volume surges,
block trades
, and unusual options activity that may signal moves.Risk Checks0/9 checks passed
Volume Surge
≥1.5xVolume 0.4x avg — normal
Turnover Rate
≥15%Vol/OI 2.5% — normal turnover
Strike Concentration
≥60%Top 3 strikes = 50% — dispersed
Multi-Day Persistence
≥2 days1 day(s) elevated — may be one-day event
OI Build
≥5%OI change -2.2% (5d) — unwinding
Sector Relative≥60%
Sector activity percentile 51% — neutral vs sector
Trade Quality
≥30%Large trade volume 29% — mixed
Execution Urgency
≥60%Aggressive execution 51% — patient
Flow Conviction
≥30Conviction -16 (bearish) — mixed
Liquidity
Can I trade efficiently?
3.5
IlliquidLiquid
Evaluates
bid-ask spreads
, volume depth, and open interest for trade execution quality.Risk Checks3/8 checks passed
Tradeable Spread
≤5.0%Spread 11.7% — wide
Adequate OI
≥10,000OI 107,266 — deep
Active Volume
≥500Volume 2,631/day — adequate
Reasonable Cost
≤$0.50$0.58 to cross — expensive
Strike Coverage
≥5 strikes0 liquid strikes — limited options
Sector Relative≤40%
Sector spread percentile 86% — much wider than sector
Order Book Depth
≥100 contractsDepth 241.4 contracts (bid:163.3 ask:78.1) — adequate
Execution Quality
<1.0%Avg slippage 4.79% — poor
Timing
Is now a good time?
7.2
RiskyFavorable
Considers earnings proximity,
time decay
, and event calendar for optimal entry timing.Risk Checks6/9 checks passed
Term Structure Clarity
|slope| ≥5%Slope +0.8% — flat/unclear
IV Percentile Clarity
<30 or >70IV percentile 75% — seller opportunity
Event Detection
≥10pts kinkIV kink 1.3pts — no clear event
Theta/Vega Clarity
<0.5 or >2.0θ/ν ratio 627.06 — favors income trades
Expiration Distribution
≥3 expirations3 liquid expirations — flexible
Event Risk
≥60% (safe)safe window: No events detected
Spread Momentum
<1.2 ratioSpread ratio 1.00x — stable
Flow Momentum
≥25% strength + ≥50% consistencyFlow -16% @ 58% consistency — unclear
Smart Money Timing
≥40 composite scoreScore 59 (ITM 20% + inst 29%) — moderate institutional
Directional Strategy Fit
Option Buyers
Long Calls5.0
bullishIV expensive, mixed flow
Long Puts4.4
bearishIV expensive, mixed flow
Premium Sellers
Cash-Secured Put5.7
bullishIV rich premium, mixed flow
Covered Call5.0
bearishIV rich premium, mixed flow
For educational purposes only. Not investment advice.