Options/ARES

ARESAres Management Corporation Class A Common Stock

Options Analysis Report•INVESTMENT ADVICE

Market Cap $29.7B|NYSE

● 2026-09-11$130.63

NEUTRAL

Analysis: 2026-09-10 EOD data

1Y -29.3%YTD -21.5%7D -6.8%

Options Vol

1,574

30D

Implied Move

±11.7%

IV Rank

10%

ARES Options Overview

IV is elevated with bearish flow. Conditions favor premium sellers.

REWARDS

RISK ANALYSIS

Snowflake Analysis

Favorable conditions for premium sellers

Learn

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ARES Gamma Walls

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ARES Hedge Radar

No action needed

Full Hedge Radar

Fragility reads low; protection is priced cheap. Neither axis is a forecast — this is where ARES sits on protection cost vs. fragility today.

Protection is priced in the cheap band (3.33) — implied vol sits in the 15th percentile of its own past year, and downside puts carry 2.7 IV points more than at-the-money, measured against this name's own rolling 20-trading-day realized moves (484 overlapping windows). Fragility reads resilient (2.5): it is trading 17% above its hedge wall on a wall graded HIGH for reliability, and its realized-vol regime is stable.

Protection cost

3.33/ 10cheap

Basis: cross_sectional

Fragility

2.50/ 10resilient

Basis: per_ticker

Value

Is IV priced right?

5.3

ExpensiveCheap

Measures whether options are cheap, fair, or rich relative to historical and peer

levels.

Risk Checks4/9 checks passed

IV Rank

≤35%

IV Rank 77.8% — elevated vs history

IV/HV Ratio

<1.05x

IV/HV 1.25x — IV premium over HV

Sector Relative≤50%

Sector percentile 94% — above sector median

Term Structure

<1.1x

Front/Back 1.10x — backwardation

Skew Normal

<1.25x

Put/Call IV 1.16x — elevated

Absolute IV

<80%

ATM IV 42.4% — normal range

Spread-Adjusted Value

<80%

Effective IV 64.5% (ATM 42.4% + spread 11.1% + bias) — good value

Execution Efficiency

<3.0%

Total drag 14.50% (spread 11.07% + slippage 3.43%) — high friction

Vega Efficiency

≥5.0

Vega efficiency 13.06 (vega 14.462 / spread 11.07%) — efficient

Sentiment

Bullish or bearish?

4.8

BearishBullish

Analyzes

put/call ratios

open interest skew

, and flow direction to determine market bias.

Risk ChecksVery Bullish - Strong signal (Conviction: +32%, Raw: +22%)

Flow Direction

|net sentiment| ≥25%

Conviction-weighted: +32% (strong bullish) — Raw: +22%

OI Skew Magnitude

≥15%

|OI skew| 43.8% — put-heavy

Volume-OI Alignment

Same sign, |vol skew| ≥10%

Vol skew -15.9%, OI skew -43.8% — aligned

Conviction Quality

≥2/3 conditions

0-DTE 3%, far-OTM 15%, avg DTE 30

OI Momentum

|change| ≥3%

OI change +0.0% (5d) — stable

Smart Money Flow

|weighted flow| ≥20%

ITM: +37%, ATM: +52%, OTM: +15% — strong bullish (ITM/ATM aligned)

Sector Relative≤40% or ≥60%

Sector P/C percentile 78% — very bearish vs sector

Activity

Unusual activity?

3.4

QuietActive

Detects volume surges,

block trades

, and unusual options activity that may signal moves.

Risk Checks1/8 checks passed

Volume Surge

≥1.5x

Volume 1.1x avg — normal

Turnover Rate

≥15%

Vol/OI 2.1% — normal turnover

Multi-Day Persistence

≥2 days

1 day(s) elevated — may be one-day event

OI Build

≥5%

OI change +0.3% (5d) — stable

Sector Relative≥60%

Sector activity percentile 44% — neutral vs sector

Trade Quality

≥30%

Large trade volume 0% — mostly retail

Execution Urgency

≥60%

Aggressive execution 27% — patient

Flow Conviction

≥30

Conviction +32 (bullish) — moderate

Liquidity

Can I trade efficiently?

3.5

IlliquidLiquid

Evaluates

bid-ask spreads

, volume depth, and open interest for trade execution quality.

Risk Checks2/8 checks passed

Tradeable Spread

≤5.0%

Spread 11.1% — wide

Adequate OI

≥10,000

OI 75,543 — deep

Active Volume

≥500

Volume 1,574/day — adequate

Reasonable Cost

≤$0.50

$0.55 to cross — expensive

Strike Coverage

≥5 strikes

0 liquid strikes — limited options

Sector Relative≤40%

Sector spread percentile 94% — much wider than sector

Order Book Depth

≥100 contracts

Depth 58.3 contracts (bid:25.2 ask:33.1) — thin

Execution Quality

<1.0%

Avg slippage 3.43% — poor

Timing

Is now a good time?

6.4

RiskyFavorable

Considers earnings proximity,

time decay

, and event calendar for optimal entry timing.

Risk Checks6/9 checks passed

Term Structure Clarity

|slope| ≥5%

Slope +10.0% — backwardation

IV Percentile Clarity

<30 or >70

IV percentile 78% — seller opportunity

Event Detection

≥10pts kink

IV kink 4.1pts — no clear event

Theta/Vega Clarity

<0.5 or >2.0

θ/ν ratio 161.41 — favors income trades

Expiration Distribution

≥3 expirations

5 liquid expirations — flexible

Event Risk

≥60% (safe)

caution advised: FOMC in 5d; CPI in 0d (HIGH)

Spread Momentum

<1.2 ratio

Spread ratio 1.00x — stable

Flow Momentum

≥25% strength + ≥50% consistency

Flow +32% @ 66% consistency — moderate (bullish)

Smart Money Timing

≥40 composite score

Score 30 (ITM 20% + inst 0%) — retail dominated

Directional Strategy Fit

Option Buyers

Long Calls5.0

bullishIV fair, mixed flow

Long Puts5.1

bearishIV fair, mixed flow

Premium Sellers

Cash-Secured Put4.8

bullishIV fair, mixed flow

Covered Call4.9

bearishIV fair, mixed flow

For educational purposes only. Not investment advice.

The Options Desk tracks the move options price into every US earnings report the week of Sep 7, next to how much each stock has actually moved on its past prints — plus the SPY, QQQ and IWM expected ranges and the gamma walls that box them in.

More on ARES

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