Options/AVAV

AVAVAeroVironment, Inc.

Options Analysis Report•AIRCRAFT

Market Cap $7.4B|NASDAQ

● 2026-09-04$144.65

NEUTRAL

Analysis: 2026-09-03 EOD data

1Y -36.0%YTD -43.5%7D -2.2%

Options Vol

9,744

30D

Implied Move

±23.5%

IV Rank

28%

AVAV Options Overview

IV is elevated with unusual activity. Conditions favor premium sellers.

REWARDS

RISK ANALYSIS

Snowflake Analysis

Favorable conditions for premium sellers

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AVAV Gamma Walls

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AVAV Hedge Radar

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Full Hedge Radar

Fragility reads high; protection is priced cheap. Neither axis is a forecast — this is where AVAV sits on protection cost vs. fragility today.

Protection is priced in the cheap band (2.25) — downside puts carry 0.2 IV points LESS than at-the-money, and near-dated vol is priced 18% below far-dated, measured against this name's own rolling 19-trading-day realized moves (485 overlapping windows). Fragility reads fragile (7.5): it is trading 12% below its hedge wall on a wall graded HIGH for reliability, and its realized-vol regime is stable.

Protection cost

2.25/ 10cheap

Basis: cross_sectional

Fragility

7.50/ 10fragile

Basis: per_ticker

Value

Is IV priced right?

2.2

ExpensiveCheap

Measures whether options are cheap, fair, or rich relative to historical and peer

levels.

Risk Checks1/9 checks passed

IV Rank

≤35%

IV Rank 92.9% — elevated vs history

IV/HV Ratio

<1.05x

IV/HV 1.35x — IV premium over HV

Sector Relative≤50%

Sector percentile 96% — above sector median

Term Structure

<1.1x

Front/Back 1.49x — backwardation

Skew Normal

<1.25x

Put/Call IV 1.16x — elevated

Absolute IV

<80%

ATM IV 85.1% — crisis-level IV

Spread-Adjusted Value

<80%

Effective IV 117.0% (ATM 85.1% + spread 15.9% + bias) — expensive

Execution Efficiency

<3.0%

Total drag 23.54% (spread 15.95% + slippage 7.59%) — high friction

Vega Efficiency

≥5.0

Vega efficiency 1.91 (vega 3.044 / spread 15.95%) — spread drag

Sentiment

Bullish or bearish?

6.2

BearishBullish

Analyzes

put/call ratios

open interest skew

, and flow direction to determine market bias.

Risk ChecksNeutral - Moderate signal (Conviction: -9%, Raw: -8%)

Flow Direction

|net sentiment| ≥25%

Conviction-weighted: -9% (neutral) — Raw: -8%

OI Skew Magnitude

≥15%

|OI skew| 19.1% — call-heavy

Volume-OI Alignment

Same sign, |vol skew| ≥10%

Vol skew +40.7%, OI skew +19.1% — aligned

Conviction Quality

≥2/3 conditions

0-DTE 46%, far-OTM 15%, avg DTE 30

OI Momentum

|change| ≥3%

OI change +0.0% (5d) — stable

Smart Money Flow

|weighted flow| ≥20%

ITM: +13%, ATM: -29%, OTM: +7% — neutral (ITM/ATM divergent)

Sector Relative≤40% or ≥60%

Sector P/C percentile 36% — bullish vs sector

Activity

Unusual activity?

5.6

QuietActive

Detects volume surges,

block trades

, and unusual options activity that may signal moves.

Risk Checks3/8 checks passed

Volume Surge

≥1.5x

Volume 1.7x avg — elevated

Turnover Rate

≥15%

Vol/OI 13.4% — normal turnover

Multi-Day Persistence

≥2 days

1 day(s) elevated — may be one-day event

OI Build

≥5%

OI change +9.9% (5d) — building

Sector Relative≥60%

Sector activity percentile 94% — very active vs sector

Trade Quality

≥30%

Large trade volume 12% — mostly retail

Execution Urgency

≥60%

Aggressive execution 24% — patient

Flow Conviction

≥30

Conviction -9 (bearish) — mixed

Liquidity

Can I trade efficiently?

3.3

IlliquidLiquid

Evaluates

bid-ask spreads

, volume depth, and open interest for trade execution quality.

Risk Checks2/8 checks passed

Tradeable Spread

≤5.0%

Spread 15.9% — wide

Adequate OI

≥10,000

OI 72,500 — deep

Active Volume

≥500

Volume 9,744/day — active

Reasonable Cost

≤$0.50

$0.80 to cross — expensive

Strike Coverage

≥5 strikes

0 liquid strikes — limited options

Sector Relative≤40%

Sector spread percentile 98% — much wider than sector

Order Book Depth

≥100 contracts

Depth 69.5 contracts (bid:32.8 ask:36.7) — thin

Execution Quality

<1.0%

Avg slippage 7.59% — poor

Timing

Is now a good time?

6.2

RiskyFavorable

Considers earnings proximity,

time decay

, and event calendar for optimal entry timing.

Risk Checks6/9 checks passed

Term Structure Clarity

|slope| ≥5%

Slope +49.4% — backwardation

IV Percentile Clarity

<30 or >70

IV percentile 93% — seller opportunity

Event Detection

≥10pts kink

IV kink 34.3pts — event priced

Theta/Vega Clarity

<0.5 or >2.0

θ/ν ratio 1.20 — favors mixed

Expiration Distribution

≥3 expirations

4 liquid expirations — flexible

Event Risk

≥60% (safe)

caution advised: Earnings in 5d (elevated risk)

Spread Momentum

<1.2 ratio

Spread ratio 1.00x — stable

Flow Momentum

≥25% strength + ≥50% consistency

Flow -9% @ 54% consistency — unclear

Smart Money Timing

≥40 composite score

Score 42 (ITM 20% + inst 12%) — moderate institutional

Directional Strategy Fit

Option Buyers

Long Calls4.3

bullishIV expensive, bullish flow

Long Puts3.5

bearishIV expensive, bullish flow

Premium Sellers

Cash-Secured Put6.1

bullishIV rich premium, bullish flow

Covered Call5.3

bearishIV rich premium, bullish flow

For educational purposes only. Not investment advice.

Earnings · week of Sep 7

Options price a ±13.1% move into AVAV's Sep 9 earnings

AVAV reports on Wednesday, September 9 after the close. The at-the-money straddle covering that report prices a ±13.1% move — roughly $125.70 to $163.60 from $144.65. AVAV has averaged ±10.5% on its last 7 earnings reactions (biggest: 22%), so this print is priced at 1.2× its own history.

1.2× RICHimplied ±13.1%history ±10.5%Sep 11 expiry

See the implied move for every US stock reporting the week of Sep 7

Implied move = the live at-the-money straddle for the expiry covering the report (Sep 11); it shifts intraday. Historical move = the average of AVAV’s own 1-day earnings reactions over its last reported quarters — a reference, not a forecast.

More on AVAV

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