AVAVAeroVironment, Inc.
Options Analysis Report•AIRCRAFT
Market Cap $8.4B|NASDAQ
● 2026-05-15$165.27
BULLISH
Analysis: 2026-05-14 EOD data
1Y -0.1%YTD -35.5%7D -1.8%
Options Vol
5,171
30D
Implied Move
±19.3%
IV Rank
35%
AVAV Options Overview
IV is elevated with bullish flow. Conditions favor premium sellers.
REWARDS
RISK ANALYSIS
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Value
Is IV priced right?
3.7
ExpensiveCheap
Measures whether options are cheap, fair, or rich relative to historical and peer
IV
levels.Risk Checks3/9 checks passed
IV Rank
≤35%IV Rank 82.0% — elevated vs history
IV/HV Ratio
<1.05xIV/HV 1.16x — IV premium over HV
Sector Relative≤50%
Sector percentile 83% — above sector median
Term Structure
<1.1xFront/Back 0.90x — contango
Skew Normal
<1.25xPut/Call IV 1.16x — elevated
Absolute IV
<80%ATM IV 74.0% — normal range
Spread-Adjusted Value
<80%Effective IV 102.8% (ATM 74.0% + spread 14.4% + bias) — expensive
Execution Efficiency
<3.0%Total drag 22.16% (spread 14.38% + slippage 7.78%) — high friction
Vega Efficiency
≥5.0Vega efficiency 2.22 (vega 3.190 / spread 14.38%) — spread drag
Sentiment
Bullish or bearish?
6.5
BearishBullish
Analyzes
put/call ratios
, open interest skew
, and flow direction to determine market bias.Risk ChecksNeutral - Moderate signal (Conviction: +1%, Raw: +3%)
Flow Direction
|net sentiment| ≥25%Conviction-weighted: +1% (neutral) — Raw: +3%
OI Skew Magnitude
≥15%|OI skew| 39.0% — call-heavy
Volume-OI Alignment
Same sign, |vol skew| ≥10%Vol skew +36.8%, OI skew +39.0% — aligned
Conviction Quality
≥2/3 conditions0-DTE 30%, far-OTM 15%, avg DTE 30
OI Momentum
|change| ≥3%OI change +0.0% (5d) — stable
Smart Money Flow
|weighted flow| ≥20%ITM: -1%, ATM: +27%, OTM: -1% — bullish (ITM/ATM divergent)
Sector Relative≤40% or ≥60%
Sector P/C percentile 46% — neutral vs sector
Activity
Unusual activity?
3.8
QuietActive
Detects volume surges,
block trades
, and unusual options activity that may signal moves.Risk Checks2/9 checks passed
Volume Surge
≥1.5xVolume 0.8x avg — normal
Turnover Rate
≥15%Vol/OI 6.9% — normal turnover
Strike Concentration
≥60%Top 3 strikes = 50% — dispersed
Multi-Day Persistence
≥2 days1 day(s) elevated — may be one-day event
OI Build
≥5%OI change +13.5% (5d) — building
Sector Relative≥60%
Sector activity percentile 76% — active vs sector
Trade Quality
≥30%Large trade volume 8% — mostly retail
Execution Urgency
≥60%Aggressive execution 27% — patient
Flow Conviction
≥30Conviction +1 (bullish) — mixed
Liquidity
Can I trade efficiently?
3.2
IlliquidLiquid
Evaluates
bid-ask spreads
, volume depth, and open interest for trade execution quality.Risk Checks3/8 checks passed
Tradeable Spread
≤5.0%Spread 14.4% — wide
Adequate OI
≥10,000OI 74,502 — deep
Active Volume
≥500Volume 5,171/day — active
Reasonable Cost
≤$0.50$0.72 to cross — expensive
Strike Coverage
≥5 strikes0 liquid strikes — limited options
Sector Relative≤40%
Sector spread percentile 89% — much wider than sector
Order Book Depth
≥100 contractsDepth 143.5 contracts (bid:81.9 ask:61.6) — adequate
Execution Quality
<1.0%Avg slippage 7.78% — poor
Timing
Is now a good time?
7.2
RiskyFavorable
Considers earnings proximity,
time decay
, and event calendar for optimal entry timing.Risk Checks6/9 checks passed
Term Structure Clarity
|slope| ≥5%Slope -9.9% — contango
IV Percentile Clarity
<30 or >70IV percentile 82% — seller opportunity
Event Detection
≥10pts kinkIV kink -4.1pts — no clear event
Theta/Vega Clarity
<0.5 or >2.0θ/ν ratio 2.29 — favors income trades
Expiration Distribution
≥3 expirations5 liquid expirations — flexible
Event Risk
≥60% (safe)safe window: No events detected
Spread Momentum
<1.2 ratioSpread ratio 1.00x — stable
Flow Momentum
≥25% strength + ≥50% consistencyFlow +1% @ 50% consistency — unclear
Smart Money Timing
≥40 composite scoreScore 38 (ITM 20% + inst 8%) — retail dominated
Directional Strategy Fit
Option Buyers
Long Calls5.1
bullishIV expensive, bullish flow
Long Puts4.1
bearishIV expensive, bullish flow
Premium Sellers
Cash-Secured Put6.0
bullishIV rich premium, bullish flow
Covered Call4.8
bearishIV rich premium, bullish flow
For educational purposes only. Not investment advice.