IV is elevated with unusual activity. Conditions favor premium sellers.
Is IV priced right?
Measures whether options are cheap, fair, or rich relative to historical and peer
IV Rank 82.3% — elevated vs history
IV/HV 1.20x — IV premium over HV
Sector percentile 50% — below sector median
Front/Back 1.15x — backwardation
Put/Call IV 1.16x — elevated
ATM IV 52.0% — normal range
Effective IV 61.2% (ATM 52.0% + spread 4.6% + bias) — good value
Total drag 8.35% (spread 4.58% + slippage 3.77%) — high friction
Vega efficiency 382.41 (vega 175.146 / spread 4.58%) — efficient
Bullish or bearish?
Analyzes
Conviction-weighted: -9% (neutral) — Raw: -10%
|OI skew| 6.9% — balanced
Vol skew +8.7%, OI skew -6.9% — divergent (opposite)
0-DTE 30%, far-OTM 15%, avg DTE 30
OI change +0.0% (5d) — stable
ITM: -14%, ATM: -10%, OTM: -10% — bearish (ITM/ATM aligned)
Sector P/C percentile 65% — bearish vs sector
Unusual activity?
Detects volume surges,
Volume 0.8x avg — normal
Vol/OI 12.6% — normal turnover
Top 3 strikes = 50% — dispersed
1 day(s) elevated — may be one-day event
OI change +1.7% (5d) — stable
Sector activity percentile 83% — very active vs sector
Large trade volume 24% — mixed
Aggressive execution 36% — patient
Conviction -9 (bearish) — mixed
Can I trade efficiently?
Evaluates
Spread 4.6% — acceptable
OI 1,911,834 — deep
Volume 240,864/day — active
$0.23 to cross — cheap
2 liquid strikes — limited options
Sector spread percentile 52% — neutral vs sector
Depth 243.0 contracts (bid:119.6 ask:123.4) — adequate
Avg slippage 3.77% — poor
Is now a good time?
Considers earnings proximity,
Slope +14.6% — backwardation
IV percentile 82% — seller opportunity
IV kink 6.6pts — no clear event
θ/ν ratio 1739.28 — favors income trades
5 liquid expirations — flexible
HIGH RISK: FOMC in 0d (HIGH)
Spread ratio 1.00x — stable
Flow -9% @ 54% consistency — unclear
Score 54 (ITM 20% + inst 24%) — moderate institutional
For educational purposes only. Not investment advice.