BTUPeabody Energy Corporation
Options Analysis Report•BITUMINOUS COAL & LIGNITE SURFACE MINING
Market Cap $3.0B|NYSE
● 2026-05-15$24.26
NEUTRAL
Analysis: 2026-05-14 EOD data
1Y +69.5%YTD -20.9%7D +2.8%
Options Vol
1,345
30D
Implied Move
±17.0%
IV Rank
30%
BTU Options Overview
IV is elevated. Conditions favor premium sellers.
REWARDS
RISK ANALYSIS
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Value
Is IV priced right?
3.7
ExpensiveCheap
Measures whether options are cheap, fair, or rich relative to historical and peer
IV
levels.Risk Checks3/9 checks passed
IV Rank
≤35%IV Rank 72.6% — elevated vs history
IV/HV Ratio
<1.05xIV/HV 1.34x — IV premium over HV
Sector Relative≤50%
Sector percentile 73% — above sector median
Term Structure
<1.1xFront/Back 1.04x — flat
Skew Normal
<1.25xPut/Call IV 1.16x — elevated
Absolute IV
<80%ATM IV 61.0% — normal range
Spread-Adjusted Value
<80%Effective IV 103.4% (ATM 61.0% + spread 21.2% + bias) — expensive
Execution Efficiency
<3.0%Total drag 31.48% (spread 21.20% + slippage 10.28%) — high friction
Vega Efficiency
≥5.0Vega efficiency 3.16 (vega 6.709 / spread 21.20%) — spread drag
Sentiment
Bullish or bearish?
7.1
BearishBullish
Analyzes
put/call ratios
, open interest skew
, and flow direction to determine market bias.Risk ChecksBullish - Strong signal (Conviction: +20%, Raw: +4%)
Flow Direction
|net sentiment| ≥25%Conviction-weighted: +20% (bullish) — Raw: +4%
OI Skew Magnitude
≥15%|OI skew| 14.4% — balanced
Volume-OI Alignment
Same sign, |vol skew| ≥10%Vol skew +27.4%, OI skew +14.4% — aligned
Conviction Quality
≥2/3 conditions0-DTE 25%, far-OTM 15%, avg DTE 30
OI Momentum
|change| ≥3%OI change +0.0% (5d) — stable
Smart Money Flow
|weighted flow| ≥20%ITM: +40%, ATM: -13%, OTM: -7% — bullish (ITM/ATM divergent)
Sector Relative≤40% or ≥60%
Sector P/C percentile 71% — very bearish vs sector
Activity
Unusual activity?
2.7
QuietActive
Detects volume surges,
block trades
, and unusual options activity that may signal moves.Risk Checks0/9 checks passed
Volume Surge
≥1.5xVolume 0.3x avg — normal
Turnover Rate
≥15%Vol/OI 0.9% — normal turnover
Strike Concentration
≥60%Top 3 strikes = 50% — dispersed
Multi-Day Persistence
≥2 days1 day(s) elevated — may be one-day event
OI Build
≥5%OI change +4.8% (5d) — building
Sector Relative≥60%
Sector activity percentile 19% — quiet vs sector
Trade Quality
≥30%Large trade volume 0% — mostly retail
Execution Urgency
≥60%Aggressive execution 34% — patient
Flow Conviction
≥30Conviction +20 (bullish) — mixed
Liquidity
Can I trade efficiently?
3.2
IlliquidLiquid
Evaluates
bid-ask spreads
, volume depth, and open interest for trade execution quality.Risk Checks3/8 checks passed
Tradeable Spread
≤5.0%Spread 21.2% — wide
Adequate OI
≥10,000OI 150,490 — deep
Active Volume
≥500Volume 1,345/day — adequate
Reasonable Cost
≤$0.50$1.06 to cross — expensive
Strike Coverage
≥5 strikes1 liquid strikes — limited options
Sector Relative≤40%
Sector spread percentile 85% — much wider than sector
Order Book Depth
≥100 contractsDepth 578.8 contracts (bid:275.6 ask:303.2) — deep
Execution Quality
<1.0%Avg slippage 10.28% — poor
Timing
Is now a good time?
6.9
RiskyFavorable
Considers earnings proximity,
time decay
, and event calendar for optimal entry timing.Risk Checks5/9 checks passed
Term Structure Clarity
|slope| ≥5%Slope +4.0% — flat/unclear
IV Percentile Clarity
<30 or >70IV percentile 73% — seller opportunity
Event Detection
≥10pts kinkIV kink 4.4pts — no clear event
Theta/Vega Clarity
<0.5 or >2.0θ/ν ratio 583.36 — favors income trades
Expiration Distribution
≥3 expirations5 liquid expirations — flexible
Event Risk
≥60% (safe)safe window: No earnings detected
Spread Momentum
<1.2 ratioSpread ratio 1.00x — stable
Flow Momentum
≥25% strength + ≥50% consistencyFlow +20% @ 60% consistency — unclear
Smart Money Timing
≥40 composite scoreScore 30 (ITM 20% + inst 0%) — retail dominated
Directional Strategy Fit
Option Buyers
Long Calls5.3
bullishIV expensive, bullish flow
Long Puts3.8
bearishIV expensive, bullish flow
Premium Sellers
Cash-Secured Put6.0
bullishIV rich premium, bullish flow
Covered Call4.6
bearishIV rich premium, bullish flow
For educational purposes only. Not investment advice.