bearish flow. Conditions favor premium sellers.
Is IV priced right?
Measures whether options are cheap, fair, or rich relative to historical and peer
IV Rank 61.2% — elevated vs history
IV/HV 1.73x — IV premium over HV
Sector percentile 53% — above sector median
Front/Back 1.11x — backwardation
Put/Call IV 1.16x — elevated
ATM IV 50.1% — normal range
Effective IV 80.7% (ATM 50.1% + spread 15.3% + bias) — expensive
Total drag 19.87% (spread 15.29% + slippage 4.58%) — high friction
Vega efficiency 26.16 (vega 40.004 / spread 15.29%) — efficient
Bullish or bearish?
Analyzes
Conviction-weighted: -39% (strong bearish) — Raw: -37%
|OI skew| 62.4% — put-heavy
Vol skew -30.3%, OI skew -62.4% — aligned
0-DTE 26%, far-OTM 15%, avg DTE 30
OI change +0.0% (5d) — stable
ITM: -47%, ATM: -50%, OTM: -32% — strong bearish (ITM/ATM aligned)
Sector P/C percentile 86% — very bearish vs sector
Unusual activity?
Detects volume surges,
Volume 0.6x avg — normal
Vol/OI 2.9% — normal turnover
Top 3 strikes = 50% — dispersed
1 day(s) elevated — may be one-day event
OI change +21.8% (5d) — building
Sector activity percentile 51% — neutral vs sector
Large trade volume 0% — mostly retail
Aggressive execution 34% — patient
Conviction -39 (bearish) — moderate
Can I trade efficiently?
Evaluates
Spread 15.3% — wide
OI 46,920 — adequate
Volume 1,355/day — adequate
$0.76 to cross — expensive
0 liquid strikes — limited options
Sector spread percentile 75% — wider than sector
Depth 36.8 contracts (bid:23.8 ask:13.0) — thin
Avg slippage 4.58% — poor
Is now a good time?
Considers earnings proximity,
Slope +11.0% — backwardation
IV percentile 61% — neutral
IV kink 1.2pts — no clear event
θ/ν ratio 178.75 — favors income trades
5 liquid expirations — flexible
safe window: No earnings detected
Spread ratio 1.00x — stable
Flow -39% @ 69% consistency — moderate (bearish)
Score 30 (ITM 20% + inst 0%) — retail dominated
For educational purposes only. Not investment advice.