CATCaterpillar Inc.
Options Analysis Report•CONSTRUCTION MACHINERY & EQUIP
Market Cap $423.8B|NYSE
● 2026-05-15$920.22
NEUTRAL
Analysis: 2026-05-14 EOD data
1Y +163.1%YTD +53.8%7D +2.5%
Options Vol
19,225
30D
Implied Move
±10.6%
IV Rank
57%
CAT Options Overview
Mixed signals. Conditions favor premium sellers.
REWARDS
RISK ANALYSIS
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Value
Is IV priced right?
5.3
ExpensiveCheap
Measures whether options are cheap, fair, or rich relative to historical and peer
IV
levels.Risk Checks6/9 checks passed
IV Rank
≤35%IV Rank 63.4% — elevated vs history
IV/HV Ratio
<1.05xIV/HV 0.88x — IV ≤ HV
Sector Relative≤50%
Sector percentile 66% — above sector median
Term Structure
<1.1xFront/Back 0.97x — contango
Skew Normal
<1.25xPut/Call IV 1.16x — elevated
Absolute IV
<80%ATM IV 38.8% — normal range
Spread-Adjusted Value
<80%Effective IV 58.6% (ATM 38.8% + spread 9.9% + bias) — good value
Execution Efficiency
<3.0%Total drag 21.89% (spread 9.88% + slippage 12.01%) — high friction
Vega Efficiency
≥5.0Vega efficiency 126.25 (vega 124.738 / spread 9.88%) — efficient
Sentiment
Bullish or bearish?
4.8
BearishBullish
Analyzes
put/call ratios
, open interest skew
, and flow direction to determine market bias.Risk ChecksNeutral - Moderate signal (Conviction: -2%, Raw: +4%)
Flow Direction
|net sentiment| ≥25%Conviction-weighted: -2% (neutral) — Raw: +4%
OI Skew Magnitude
≥15%|OI skew| 19.3% — put-heavy
Volume-OI Alignment
Same sign, |vol skew| ≥10%Vol skew +3.2%, OI skew -19.3% — divergent (opposite)
Conviction Quality
≥2/3 conditions0-DTE 33%, far-OTM 15%, avg DTE 30
OI Momentum
|change| ≥3%OI change +0.0% (5d) — stable
Smart Money Flow
|weighted flow| ≥20%ITM: +34%, ATM: +1%, OTM: +3% — bullish (ITM/ATM aligned)
Sector Relative≤40% or ≥60%
Sector P/C percentile 59% — bearish vs sector
Activity
Unusual activity?
3.7
QuietActive
Detects volume surges,
block trades
, and unusual options activity that may signal moves.Risk Checks2/9 checks passed
Volume Surge
≥1.5xVolume 0.7x avg — normal
Turnover Rate
≥15%Vol/OI 6.3% — normal turnover
Strike Concentration
≥60%Top 3 strikes = 50% — dispersed
Multi-Day Persistence
≥2 days1 day(s) elevated — may be one-day event
OI Build
≥5%OI change +9.2% (5d) — building
Sector Relative≥60%
Sector activity percentile 77% — active vs sector
Trade Quality
≥30%Large trade volume 7% — mostly retail
Execution Urgency
≥60%Aggressive execution 21% — patient
Flow Conviction
≥30Conviction -2 (bearish) — mixed
Liquidity
Can I trade efficiently?
4.8
IlliquidLiquid
Evaluates
bid-ask spreads
, volume depth, and open interest for trade execution quality.Risk Checks3/8 checks passed
Tradeable Spread
≤5.0%Spread 9.9% — wide
Adequate OI
≥10,000OI 303,832 — deep
Active Volume
≥500Volume 19,225/day — active
Reasonable Cost
≤$0.50$0.49 to cross — cheap
Strike Coverage
≥5 strikes3 liquid strikes — limited options
Sector Relative≤40%
Sector spread percentile 68% — wider than sector
Order Book Depth
≥100 contractsDepth 76.7 contracts (bid:30.6 ask:46.1) — thin
Execution Quality
<1.0%Avg slippage 12.01% — poor
Timing
Is now a good time?
6.7
RiskyFavorable
Considers earnings proximity,
time decay
, and event calendar for optimal entry timing.Risk Checks4/9 checks passed
Term Structure Clarity
|slope| ≥5%Slope -2.9% — flat/unclear
IV Percentile Clarity
<30 or >70IV percentile 63% — neutral
Event Detection
≥10pts kinkIV kink 1.4pts — no clear event
Theta/Vega Clarity
<0.5 or >2.0θ/ν ratio 221.32 — favors income trades
Expiration Distribution
≥3 expirations5 liquid expirations — flexible
Event Risk
≥60% (safe)safe window: No events detected
Spread Momentum
<1.2 ratioSpread ratio 1.00x — stable
Flow Momentum
≥25% strength + ≥50% consistencyFlow -2% @ 51% consistency — unclear
Smart Money Timing
≥40 composite scoreScore 37 (ITM 20% + inst 7%) — retail dominated
Directional Strategy Fit
Option Buyers
Long Calls5.3
bullishIV fair, mixed flow
Long Puts5.4
bearishIV fair, mixed flow
Premium Sellers
Cash-Secured Put5.0
bullishIV fair, mixed flow
Covered Call5.2
bearishIV fair, mixed flow
For educational purposes only. Not investment advice.