CCLCarnival Corporation Ltd.
Options Analysis Report•WATER TRANSPORTATION
Market Cap $34.9B|NYSE
● 2026-05-15$25.20
NEUTRAL
Analysis: 2026-05-14 EOD data
1Y +9.6%YTD -18.5%7D -4.5%
Options Vol
38,209
30D
Implied Move
±14.6%
IV Rank
46%
CCL Options Overview
IV is elevated. Conditions favor premium sellers.
REWARDS
RISK ANALYSIS
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Value
Is IV priced right?
4.6
ExpensiveCheap
Measures whether options are cheap, fair, or rich relative to historical and peer
IV
levels.Risk Checks6/9 checks passed
IV Rank
≤35%IV Rank 87.2% — elevated vs history
IV/HV Ratio
<1.05xIV/HV 1.04x — IV ≤ HV
Sector Relative≤50%
Sector percentile 92% — above sector median
Term Structure
<1.1xFront/Back 1.04x — flat
Skew Normal
<1.25xPut/Call IV 1.16x — elevated
Absolute IV
<80%ATM IV 53.2% — normal range
Spread-Adjusted Value
<80%Effective IV 78.6% (ATM 53.2% + spread 12.7% + bias) — fair
Execution Efficiency
<3.0%Total drag 20.34% (spread 12.70% + slippage 7.64%) — high friction
Vega Efficiency
≥5.0Vega efficiency 6.24 (vega 7.924 / spread 12.70%) — acceptable
Sentiment
Bullish or bearish?
4.9
BearishBullish
Analyzes
put/call ratios
, open interest skew
, and flow direction to determine market bias.Risk ChecksNeutral - Weak signal (Conviction: -5%, Raw: -10%)
Flow Direction
|net sentiment| ≥25%Conviction-weighted: -5% (neutral) — Raw: -10%
OI Skew Magnitude
≥15%|OI skew| 3.6% — balanced
Volume-OI Alignment
Same sign, |vol skew| ≥10%Vol skew +5.2%, OI skew -3.6% — divergent (opposite)
Conviction Quality
≥2/3 conditions0-DTE 30%, far-OTM 15%, avg DTE 30
OI Momentum
|change| ≥3%OI change +0.0% (5d) — stable
Smart Money Flow
|weighted flow| ≥20%ITM: -4%, ATM: -13%, OTM: -10% — neutral (ITM/ATM aligned)
Sector Relative≤40% or ≥60%
Sector P/C percentile 56% — bearish vs sector
Activity
Unusual activity?
3.1
QuietActive
Detects volume surges,
block trades
, and unusual options activity that may signal moves.Risk Checks0/9 checks passed
Volume Surge
≥1.5xVolume 0.6x avg — normal
Turnover Rate
≥15%Vol/OI 3.0% — normal turnover
Strike Concentration
≥60%Top 3 strikes = 50% — dispersed
Multi-Day Persistence
≥2 days1 day(s) elevated — may be one-day event
OI Build
≥5%OI change +2.6% (5d) — building
Sector Relative≥60%
Sector activity percentile 32% — below sector avg
Trade Quality
≥30%Large trade volume 30% — mixed
Execution Urgency
≥60%Aggressive execution 48% — patient
Flow Conviction
≥30Conviction -5 (bearish) — mixed
Liquidity
Can I trade efficiently?
4.3
IlliquidLiquid
Evaluates
bid-ask spreads
, volume depth, and open interest for trade execution quality.Risk Checks3/8 checks passed
Tradeable Spread
≤5.0%Spread 12.7% — wide
Adequate OI
≥10,000OI 1,257,098 — deep
Active Volume
≥500Volume 38,209/day — active
Reasonable Cost
≤$0.50$0.64 to cross — expensive
Strike Coverage
≥5 strikes0 liquid strikes — limited options
Sector Relative≤40%
Sector spread percentile 92% — much wider than sector
Order Book Depth
≥100 contractsDepth 788.4 contracts (bid:394.4 ask:394.0) — deep
Execution Quality
<1.0%Avg slippage 7.64% — poor
Timing
Is now a good time?
7.3
RiskyFavorable
Considers earnings proximity,
time decay
, and event calendar for optimal entry timing.Risk Checks6/9 checks passed
Term Structure Clarity
|slope| ≥5%Slope +3.6% — flat/unclear
IV Percentile Clarity
<30 or >70IV percentile 87% — seller opportunity
Event Detection
≥10pts kinkIV kink 2.1pts — no clear event
Theta/Vega Clarity
<0.5 or >2.0θ/ν ratio 861.30 — favors income trades
Expiration Distribution
≥3 expirations5 liquid expirations — flexible
Event Risk
≥60% (safe)safe window: No events detected
Spread Momentum
<1.2 ratioSpread ratio 1.00x — stable
Flow Momentum
≥25% strength + ≥50% consistencyFlow -5% @ 52% consistency — unclear
Smart Money Timing
≥40 composite scoreScore 60 (ITM 20% + inst 30%) — moderate institutional
Directional Strategy Fit
Option Buyers
Long Calls5.1
bullishIV fair, mixed flow
Long Puts5.1
bearishIV fair, mixed flow
Premium Sellers
Cash-Secured Put5.3
bullishIV fair, mixed flow
Covered Call5.3
bearishIV fair, mixed flow
For educational purposes only. Not investment advice.