Options/CCL

CCLCarnival Corporation Ltd.

Options Analysis Report•WATER TRANSPORTATION

Market Cap $34.2B|NYSE

● 2026-08-28$24.95

NEUTRAL

Analysis: 2026-08-27 EOD data

1Y -23.2%YTD -19.3%7D -3.0%

Options Vol

34,357

30D

Implied Move

±11.1%

IV Rank

15%

CCL Options Overview

IV is elevated. Conditions favor premium sellers.

REWARDS

RISK ANALYSIS

Snowflake Analysis

Favorable conditions for premium sellers

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CCL Gamma Walls

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CCL Hedge Radar

Hedge window open

Full Hedge Radar

Fragility reads high; protection is priced cheap. Neither axis is a forecast — this is where CCL sits on protection cost vs. fragility today.

Protection is priced in the cheap band (2.21) — near-dated vol is priced 17% below far-dated, and downside puts carry 0.5 IV points more than at-the-money, measured against this name's own rolling 20-trading-day realized moves (484 overlapping windows). Fragility reads fragile (6.62): it is trading 12% below its hedge wall on a wall graded MEDIUM for reliability, and its realized-vol regime is stable.

Protection cost

2.21/ 10cheap

Basis: cross_sectional

Fragility

6.62/ 10fragile

Basis: per_ticker

Value

Is IV priced right?

4.9

ExpensiveCheap

Measures whether options are cheap, fair, or rich relative to historical and peer

levels.

Risk Checks4/9 checks passed

IV Rank

≤35%

IV Rank 83.6% — elevated vs history

IV/HV Ratio

<1.05x

IV/HV 1.21x — IV premium over HV

Sector Relative≤50%

Sector percentile 92% — above sector median

Term Structure

<1.1x

Front/Back 0.83x — contango

Skew Normal

<1.25x

Put/Call IV 1.16x — elevated

Absolute IV

<80%

ATM IV 44.3% — normal range

Spread-Adjusted Value

<80%

Effective IV 62.1% (ATM 44.3% + spread 8.9% + bias) — good value

Execution Efficiency

<3.0%

Total drag 15.33% (spread 8.92% + slippage 6.41%) — high friction

Vega Efficiency

≥5.0

Vega efficiency 2.17 (vega 1.934 / spread 8.92%) — spread drag

Sentiment

Bullish or bearish?

4.8

BearishBullish

Analyzes

put/call ratios

open interest skew

, and flow direction to determine market bias.

Risk ChecksBullish - Moderate signal (Conviction: +14%, Raw: +8%)

Flow Direction

|net sentiment| ≥25%

Conviction-weighted: +14% (bullish) — Raw: +8%

OI Skew Magnitude

≥15%

|OI skew| 16.9% — put-heavy

Volume-OI Alignment

Same sign, |vol skew| ≥10%

Vol skew -7.5%, OI skew -16.9% — weak (same direction)

Conviction Quality

≥2/3 conditions

0-DTE 26%, far-OTM 15%, avg DTE 30

OI Momentum

|change| ≥3%

OI change +0.0% (5d) — stable

Smart Money Flow

|weighted flow| ≥20%

ITM: +11%, ATM: +6%, OTM: +8% — neutral (ITM/ATM aligned)

Sector Relative≤40% or ≥60%

Sector P/C percentile 64% — bearish vs sector

Activity

Unusual activity?

3.1

QuietActive

Detects volume surges,

block trades

, and unusual options activity that may signal moves.

Risk Checks0/8 checks passed

Volume Surge

≥1.5x

Volume 1.0x avg — normal

Turnover Rate

≥15%

Vol/OI 3.4% — normal turnover

Multi-Day Persistence

≥2 days

1 day(s) elevated — may be one-day event

OI Build

≥5%

OI change -2.9% (5d) — unwinding

Sector Relative≥60%

Sector activity percentile 30% — below sector avg

Trade Quality

≥30%

Large trade volume 27% — mixed

Execution Urgency

≥60%

Aggressive execution 39% — patient

Flow Conviction

≥30

Conviction +14 (bullish) — mixed

Liquidity

Can I trade efficiently?

4.9

IlliquidLiquid

Evaluates

bid-ask spreads

, volume depth, and open interest for trade execution quality.

Risk Checks4/8 checks passed

Tradeable Spread

≤5.0%

Spread 8.9% — wide

Adequate OI

≥10,000

OI 1,002,679 — deep

Active Volume

≥500

Volume 34,357/day — active

Reasonable Cost

≤$0.50

$0.45 to cross — cheap

Strike Coverage

≥5 strikes

0 liquid strikes — limited options

Sector Relative≤40%

Sector spread percentile 92% — much wider than sector

Order Book Depth

≥100 contracts

Depth 609.4000000000001 contracts (bid:303.1 ask:306.3) — deep

Execution Quality

<1.0%

Avg slippage 6.41% — poor

Timing

Is now a good time?

7.6

RiskyFavorable

Considers earnings proximity,

time decay

, and event calendar for optimal entry timing.

Risk Checks7/9 checks passed

Term Structure Clarity

|slope| ≥5%

Slope -17.1% — contango

IV Percentile Clarity

<30 or >70

IV percentile 84% — seller opportunity

Event Detection

≥10pts kink

IV kink -5.9pts — no clear event

Theta/Vega Clarity

<0.5 or >2.0

θ/ν ratio 55.91 — favors income trades

Expiration Distribution

≥3 expirations

5 liquid expirations — flexible

Event Risk

≥60% (safe)

safe window: No events detected

Spread Momentum

<1.2 ratio

Spread ratio 1.00x — stable

Flow Momentum

≥25% strength + ≥50% consistency

Flow +14% @ 57% consistency — unclear

Smart Money Timing

≥40 composite score

Score 57 (ITM 20% + inst 27%) — moderate institutional

Directional Strategy Fit

Option Buyers

Long Calls5.3

bullishIV fair, mixed flow

Long Puts5.4

bearishIV fair, mixed flow

Premium Sellers

Cash-Secured Put5.3

bullishIV fair, mixed flow

Covered Call5.5

bearishIV fair, mixed flow

For educational purposes only. Not investment advice.