CENXCentury Aluminum Co
Options Analysis Report•PRIMARY PRODUCTION OF ALUMINUM
Market Cap $6.1B|NASDAQ
● 2026-05-15$61.44
BULLISH
Analysis: 2026-05-14 EOD data
1Y +271.9%YTD +50.1%7D +4.3%
Options Vol
3,823
30D
Implied Move
±8.6%
IV Rank
48%
CENX Options Overview
bullish flow. Conditions favor option buyers.
REWARDS
RISK ANALYSIS
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Value
Is IV priced right?
5.8
ExpensiveCheap
Measures whether options are cheap, fair, or rich relative to historical and peer
IV
levels.Risk Checks6/9 checks passed
IV Rank
≤35%IV Rank 50.0% — elevated vs history
IV/HV Ratio
<1.05xIV/HV 1.00x — IV ≤ HV
Sector Relative≤50%
Sector percentile 50% — below sector median
Term Structure
<1.1xFront/Back 0.99x — contango
Skew Normal
<1.25xPut/Call IV 1.00x — normal
Absolute IV
<80%ATM IV 0.0% — normal range
Spread-Adjusted Value
<80%Effective IV 30.1% (ATM 0.0% + spread 15.0% + bias) — excellent value
Execution Efficiency
<3.0%Total drag 21.03% (spread 15.04% + slippage 5.99%) — high friction
Vega Efficiency
≥5.0Vega efficiency 0.00 (vega 0.000 / spread 15.04%) — spread drag
Sentiment
Bullish or bearish?
5.8
BearishBullish
Analyzes
put/call ratios
, open interest skew
, and flow direction to determine market bias.Risk ChecksBearish - Strong signal (Conviction: -21%, Raw: -18%)
Flow Direction
|net sentiment| ≥25%Conviction-weighted: -21% (bearish) — Raw: -18%
OI Skew Magnitude
≥15%|OI skew| 52.0% — call-heavy
Volume-OI Alignment
Same sign, |vol skew| ≥10%Vol skew +87.7%, OI skew +52.0% — aligned
Conviction Quality
≥2/3 conditions0-DTE 18%, far-OTM 15%, avg DTE 30
OI Momentum
|change| ≥3%OI change +0.0% (5d) — stable
Smart Money Flow
|weighted flow| ≥20%ITM: +8%, ATM: +28%, OTM: -19% — bullish (ITM/ATM aligned)
Sector Relative≤40% or ≥60%
Sector P/C percentile 11% — very bullish vs sector
Activity
Unusual activity?
5.4
QuietActive
Detects volume surges,
block trades
, and unusual options activity that may signal moves.Risk Checks4/9 checks passed
Volume Surge
≥1.5xVolume 1.6x avg — elevated
Turnover Rate
≥15%Vol/OI 7.6% — normal turnover
Strike Concentration
≥60%Top 3 strikes = 50% — dispersed
Multi-Day Persistence
≥2 days2 day(s) elevated — sustained
OI Build
≥5%OI change +7.9% (5d) — building
Sector Relative≥60%
Sector activity percentile 90% — very active vs sector
Trade Quality
≥30%Large trade volume 18% — mixed
Execution Urgency
≥60%Aggressive execution 37% — patient
Flow Conviction
≥30Conviction -21 (bearish) — mixed
Liquidity
Can I trade efficiently?
3.7
IlliquidLiquid
Evaluates
bid-ask spreads
, volume depth, and open interest for trade execution quality.Risk Checks4/8 checks passed
Tradeable Spread
≤5.0%Spread 15.0% — wide
Adequate OI
≥10,000OI 50,482 — deep
Active Volume
≥500Volume 3,823/day — adequate
Reasonable Cost
≤$0.50$0.75 to cross — expensive
Strike Coverage
≥5 strikes0 liquid strikes — limited options
Sector Relative≤40%
Sector spread percentile 0% — much tighter than sector
Order Book Depth
≥100 contractsDepth 121.4 contracts (bid:70.2 ask:51.2) — adequate
Execution Quality
<1.0%Avg slippage 5.99% — poor
Timing
Is now a good time?
5.9
RiskyFavorable
Considers earnings proximity,
time decay
, and event calendar for optimal entry timing.Risk Checks4/9 checks passed
Term Structure Clarity
|slope| ≥5%Slope -1.3% — flat/unclear
IV Percentile Clarity
<30 or >70IV percentile 50% — neutral
Event Detection
≥10pts kinkIV kink 0.8pts — no clear event
Theta/Vega Clarity
<0.5 or >2.0θ/ν ratio 1.00 — favors mixed
Expiration Distribution
≥3 expirations3 liquid expirations — flexible
Event Risk
≥60% (safe)safe window: No earnings detected
Spread Momentum
<1.2 ratioSpread ratio 1.00x — stable
Flow Momentum
≥25% strength + ≥50% consistencyFlow -21% @ 60% consistency — unclear
Smart Money Timing
≥40 composite scoreScore 48 (ITM 20% + inst 18%) — moderate institutional
Directional Strategy Fit
Option Buyers
Long Calls5.5
bullishIV fair, mixed flow
Long Puts4.9
bearishIV fair, mixed flow
Premium Sellers
Cash-Secured Put4.9
bullishIV fair, mixed flow
Covered Call4.4
bearishIV fair, mixed flow
For educational purposes only. Not investment advice.