CFCF Industries Holding, Inc.
Options Analysis Report•AGRICULTURAL CHEMICALS
Market Cap $18.9B|NYSE
● 2026-05-15$122.97
BULLISH
Analysis: 2026-05-14 EOD data
1Y +42.6%YTD +53.5%7D +6.9%
Options Vol
24,234
30D
Implied Move
±14.8%
IV Rank
48%
CF Options Overview
IV is elevated with bullish flow. No clear edge detected.
REWARDS
RISK ANALYSIS
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Value
Is IV priced right?
4.9
ExpensiveCheap
Measures whether options are cheap, fair, or rich relative to historical and peer
IV
levels.Risk Checks5/9 checks passed
IV Rank
≤35%IV Rank 87.9% — elevated vs history
IV/HV Ratio
<1.05xIV/HV 0.80x — IV ≤ HV
Sector Relative≤50%
Sector percentile 89% — above sector median
Term Structure
<1.1xFront/Back 1.07x — backwardation
Skew Normal
<1.25xPut/Call IV 1.16x — elevated
Absolute IV
<80%ATM IV 54.1% — normal range
Spread-Adjusted Value
<80%Effective IV 86.8% (ATM 54.1% + spread 16.4% + bias) — expensive
Execution Efficiency
<3.0%Total drag 18.91% (spread 16.36% + slippage 2.55%) — high friction
Vega Efficiency
≥5.0Vega efficiency 21.27 (vega 34.800 / spread 16.36%) — efficient
Sentiment
Bullish or bearish?
7.6
BearishBullish
Analyzes
put/call ratios
, open interest skew
, and flow direction to determine market bias.Risk ChecksVery Bullish - Strong signal (Conviction: +33%, Raw: +33%)
Flow Direction
|net sentiment| ≥25%Conviction-weighted: +33% (strong bullish) — Raw: +33%
OI Skew Magnitude
≥15%|OI skew| 19.2% — call-heavy
Volume-OI Alignment
Same sign, |vol skew| ≥10%Vol skew +77.5%, OI skew +19.2% — aligned
Conviction Quality
≥2/3 conditions0-DTE 72%, far-OTM 15%, avg DTE 30
OI Momentum
|change| ≥3%OI change +0.0% (5d) — stable
Smart Money Flow
|weighted flow| ≥20%ITM: +44%, ATM: -24%, OTM: -15% — bullish (ITM/ATM divergent)
Sector Relative≤40% or ≥60%
Sector P/C percentile 10% — very bullish vs sector
Activity
Unusual activity?
6.5
QuietActive
Detects volume surges,
block trades
, and unusual options activity that may signal moves.Risk Checks5/9 checks passed
Volume Surge
≥1.5xVolume 2.1x avg — hot
Turnover Rate
≥15%Vol/OI 20.6% — high turnover
Strike Concentration
≥60%Top 3 strikes = 50% — dispersed
Multi-Day Persistence
≥2 days1 day(s) elevated — may be one-day event
OI Build
≥5%OI change +2.0% (5d) — building
Sector Relative≥60%
Sector activity percentile 95% — very active vs sector
Trade Quality
≥30%Large trade volume 48% — institutional presence
Execution Urgency
≥60%Aggressive execution 16% — patient
Flow Conviction
≥30Conviction +33 (bullish) — moderate
Liquidity
Can I trade efficiently?
3.5
IlliquidLiquid
Evaluates
bid-ask spreads
, volume depth, and open interest for trade execution quality.Risk Checks3/8 checks passed
Tradeable Spread
≤5.0%Spread 16.4% — wide
Adequate OI
≥10,000OI 117,800 — deep
Active Volume
≥500Volume 24,234/day — active
Reasonable Cost
≤$0.50$0.82 to cross — expensive
Strike Coverage
≥5 strikes0 liquid strikes — limited options
Sector Relative≤40%
Sector spread percentile 90% — much wider than sector
Order Book Depth
≥100 contractsDepth 317.2 contracts (bid:190.7 ask:126.5) — adequate
Execution Quality
<1.0%Avg slippage 2.55% — poor
Timing
Is now a good time?
8.0
RiskyFavorable
Considers earnings proximity,
time decay
, and event calendar for optimal entry timing.Risk Checks8/9 checks passed
Term Structure Clarity
|slope| ≥5%Slope +6.5% — backwardation
IV Percentile Clarity
<30 or >70IV percentile 88% — seller opportunity
Event Detection
≥10pts kinkIV kink 3.1pts — no clear event
Theta/Vega Clarity
<0.5 or >2.0θ/ν ratio 693.23 — favors income trades
Expiration Distribution
≥3 expirations5 liquid expirations — flexible
Event Risk
≥60% (safe)safe window: No events detected
Spread Momentum
<1.2 ratioSpread ratio 1.00x — stable
Flow Momentum
≥25% strength + ≥50% consistencyFlow +33% @ 66% consistency — moderate (bullish)
Smart Money Timing
≥40 composite scoreScore 78 (ITM 20% + inst 48%) — HIGH institutional
Directional Strategy Fit
Option Buyers
Long Calls6.1
bullishIV fair, bullish flow
Long Puts4.3
bearishIV fair, bullish flow
Premium Sellers
Cash-Secured Put5.7
bullishIV fair, bullish flow
Covered Call4.3
bearishIV fair, bullish flow
For educational purposes only. Not investment advice.