Options/CMG

CMGChipotle Mexican Grill, Inc.

Options Analysis Report•RETAIL-EATING PLACES

Market Cap $45.7B|NYSE

● 2026-09-11$36.13

BEARISH

Analysis: 2026-09-10 EOD data

1Y -7.3%YTD -3.6%7D -2.2%

Options Vol

22,657

30D

Implied Move

±9.8%

IV Rank

CMG Options Overview

bearish flow. Conditions favor premium sellers.

REWARDS

RISK ANALYSIS

Snowflake Analysis

Favorable conditions for premium sellers

Learn

Loading score history...

CMG Gamma Walls

Loading gamma walls...

Value

Is IV priced right?

6.2

ExpensiveCheap

Measures whether options are cheap, fair, or rich relative to historical and peer

levels.

Risk Checks4/9 checks passed

IV Rank

≤35%

IV Rank 68.0% — elevated vs history

IV/HV Ratio

<1.05x

IV/HV 1.17x — IV premium over HV

Sector Relative≤50%

Sector percentile 61% — above sector median

Term Structure

<1.1x

Front/Back 0.89x — contango

Skew Normal

<1.25x

Put/Call IV 1.16x — elevated

Absolute IV

<80%

ATM IV 38.8% — normal range

Spread-Adjusted Value

<80%

Effective IV 59.8% (ATM 38.8% + spread 10.5% + bias) — good value

Execution Efficiency

<3.0%

Total drag 16.27% (spread 10.50% + slippage 5.77%) — high friction

Vega Efficiency

≥5.0

Vega efficiency 3.35 (vega 3.516 / spread 10.50%) — spread drag

Sentiment

Bullish or bearish?

2.8

BearishBullish

Analyzes

put/call ratios

open interest skew

, and flow direction to determine market bias.

Risk ChecksVery Bearish - Moderate signal (Conviction: -45%, Raw: -38%)

Flow Direction

|net sentiment| ≥25%

Conviction-weighted: -45% (strong bearish) — Raw: -38%

OI Skew Magnitude

≥15%

|OI skew| 15.8% — call-heavy

Volume-OI Alignment

Same sign, |vol skew| ≥10%

Vol skew -30.9%, OI skew +15.8% — divergent (opposite)

Conviction Quality

≥2/3 conditions

0-DTE 18%, far-OTM 15%, avg DTE 30

OI Momentum

|change| ≥3%

OI change +0.0% (5d) — stable

Smart Money Flow

|weighted flow| ≥20%

ITM: +24%, ATM: -53%, OTM: -42% — neutral (ITM/ATM divergent)

Sector Relative≤40% or ≥60%

Sector P/C percentile 68% — bearish vs sector

Activity

Unusual activity?

3.9

QuietActive

Detects volume surges,

block trades

, and unusual options activity that may signal moves.

Risk Checks2/8 checks passed

Volume Surge

≥1.5x

Volume 0.7x avg — normal

Turnover Rate

≥15%

Vol/OI 2.9% — normal turnover

Multi-Day Persistence

≥2 days

1 day(s) elevated — may be one-day event

OI Build

≥5%

OI change +1.4% (5d) — stable

Sector Relative≥60%

Sector activity percentile 34% — below sector avg

Trade Quality

≥30%

Large trade volume 35% — institutional presence

Execution Urgency

≥60%

Aggressive execution 55% — patient

Flow Conviction

≥30

Conviction -45 (bearish) — moderate

Liquidity

Can I trade efficiently?

4.5

IlliquidLiquid

Evaluates

bid-ask spreads

, volume depth, and open interest for trade execution quality.

Risk Checks3/8 checks passed

Tradeable Spread

≤5.0%

Spread 10.5% — wide

Adequate OI

≥10,000

OI 775,288 — deep

Active Volume

≥500

Volume 22,657/day — active

Reasonable Cost

≤$0.50

$0.53 to cross — expensive

Strike Coverage

≥5 strikes

0 liquid strikes — limited options

Sector Relative≤40%

Sector spread percentile 62% — wider than sector

Order Book Depth

≥100 contracts

Depth 232.8 contracts (bid:103.3 ask:129.5) — adequate

Execution Quality

<1.0%

Avg slippage 5.77% — poor

Timing

Is now a good time?

7.3

RiskyFavorable

Considers earnings proximity,

time decay

, and event calendar for optimal entry timing.

Risk Checks6/9 checks passed

Term Structure Clarity

|slope| ≥5%

Slope -11.1% — contango

IV Percentile Clarity

<30 or >70

IV percentile 68% — neutral

Event Detection

≥10pts kink

IV kink -2.3pts — no clear event

Theta/Vega Clarity

<0.5 or >2.0

θ/ν ratio 113.79 — favors income trades

Expiration Distribution

≥3 expirations

4 liquid expirations — flexible

Event Risk

≥60% (safe)

caution advised: FOMC in 5d; CPI in 0d (HIGH)

Spread Momentum

<1.2 ratio

Spread ratio 1.00x — stable

Flow Momentum

≥25% strength + ≥50% consistency

Flow -45% @ 73% consistency — STRONG directional (bearish)

Smart Money Timing

≥40 composite score

Score 65 (ITM 20% + inst 35%) — HIGH institutional

Directional Strategy Fit

Option Buyers

Long Calls4.9

bullishIV cheap, bearish flow

Long Puts7.1

bearishIV cheap, bearish flow

Premium Sellers

Cash-Secured Put4.2

bullishIV too cheap, bearish flow

Covered Call5.7

bearishIV too cheap, bearish flow

For educational purposes only. Not investment advice.

The Options Desk tracks the move options price into every US earnings report the week of Sep 7, next to how much each stock has actually moved on its past prints — plus the SPY, QQQ and IWM expected ranges and the gamma walls that box them in.

More on CMG

CMG gamma walls CMG option chain CMG max pain CMG expected move CMG IV rank CMG put/call ratio CMG options flow