CMGChipotle Mexican Grill, Inc.
Options Analysis Report•RETAIL-EATING PLACES
Market Cap $41.2B|NYSE
● 2026-05-15$32.09
BEARISH
Analysis: 2026-05-14 EOD data
1Y -38.3%YTD -14.4%7D -1.2%
Options Vol
35,047
30D
Implied Move
±10.1%
IV Rank
21%
CMG Options Overview
Mixed signals. Conditions favor premium sellers.
REWARDS
RISK ANALYSIS
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Value
Is IV priced right?
6.2
ExpensiveCheap
Measures whether options are cheap, fair, or rich relative to historical and peer
IV
levels.Risk Checks5/9 checks passed
IV Rank
≤35%IV Rank 63.0% — elevated vs history
IV/HV Ratio
<1.05xIV/HV 1.20x — IV premium over HV
Sector Relative≤50%
Sector percentile 43% — below sector median
Term Structure
<1.1xFront/Back 0.85x — contango
Skew Normal
<1.25xPut/Call IV 1.16x — elevated
Absolute IV
<80%ATM IV 38.8% — normal range
Spread-Adjusted Value
<80%Effective IV 64.1% (ATM 38.8% + spread 12.7% + bias) — good value
Execution Efficiency
<3.0%Total drag 19.06% (spread 12.66% + slippage 6.40%) — high friction
Vega Efficiency
≥5.0Vega efficiency 3.45 (vega 4.363 / spread 12.66%) — spread drag
Sentiment
Bullish or bearish?
1.4
BearishBullish
Analyzes
put/call ratios
, open interest skew
, and flow direction to determine market bias.Risk ChecksVery Bearish - Moderate signal (Conviction: -74%, Raw: -55%)
Flow Direction
|net sentiment| ≥25%Conviction-weighted: -74% (strong bearish) — Raw: -55%
OI Skew Magnitude
≥15%|OI skew| 1.0% — balanced
Volume-OI Alignment
Same sign, |vol skew| ≥10%Vol skew -35.5%, OI skew +1.0% — divergent (opposite)
Conviction Quality
≥2/3 conditions0-DTE 21%, far-OTM 15%, avg DTE 30
OI Momentum
|change| ≥3%OI change +0.0% (5d) — stable
Smart Money Flow
|weighted flow| ≥20%ITM: -66%, ATM: -76%, OTM: -5% — strong bearish (ITM/ATM aligned)
Sector Relative≤40% or ≥60%
Sector P/C percentile 84% — very bearish vs sector
Activity
Unusual activity?
4.3
QuietActive
Detects volume surges,
block trades
, and unusual options activity that may signal moves.Risk Checks2/9 checks passed
Volume Surge
≥1.5xVolume 0.8x avg — normal
Turnover Rate
≥15%Vol/OI 3.8% — normal turnover
Strike Concentration
≥60%Top 3 strikes = 50% — dispersed
Multi-Day Persistence
≥2 days1 day(s) elevated — may be one-day event
OI Build
≥5%OI change +4.4% (5d) — building
Sector Relative≥60%
Sector activity percentile 44% — neutral vs sector
Trade Quality
≥30%Large trade volume 58% — heavy institutional
Execution Urgency
≥60%Aggressive execution 46% — patient
Flow Conviction
≥30Conviction -74 (bearish) — strong conviction
Liquidity
Can I trade efficiently?
4.7
IlliquidLiquid
Evaluates
bid-ask spreads
, volume depth, and open interest for trade execution quality.Risk Checks3/8 checks passed
Tradeable Spread
≤5.0%Spread 12.7% — wide
Adequate OI
≥10,000OI 923,957 — deep
Active Volume
≥500Volume 35,047/day — active
Reasonable Cost
≤$0.50$0.63 to cross — expensive
Strike Coverage
≥5 strikes0 liquid strikes — limited options
Sector Relative≤40%
Sector spread percentile 44% — neutral vs sector
Order Book Depth
≥100 contractsDepth 605.1 contracts (bid:287.5 ask:317.6) — deep
Execution Quality
<1.0%Avg slippage 6.40% — poor
Timing
Is now a good time?
7.7
RiskyFavorable
Considers earnings proximity,
time decay
, and event calendar for optimal entry timing.Risk Checks7/9 checks passed
Term Structure Clarity
|slope| ≥5%Slope -14.7% — contango
IV Percentile Clarity
<30 or >70IV percentile 63% — neutral
Event Detection
≥10pts kinkIV kink -2.1pts — no clear event
Theta/Vega Clarity
<0.5 or >2.0θ/ν ratio 209.75 — favors income trades
Expiration Distribution
≥3 expirations5 liquid expirations — flexible
Event Risk
≥60% (safe)safe window: No events detected
Spread Momentum
<1.2 ratioSpread ratio 1.00x — stable
Flow Momentum
≥25% strength + ≥50% consistencyFlow -74% @ 87% consistency — STRONG directional (bearish)
Smart Money Timing
≥40 composite scoreScore 88 (ITM 20% + inst 58%) — HIGH institutional
Directional Strategy Fit
Option Buyers
Long Calls4.5
bullishIV cheap, bearish flow
Long Puts7.0
bearishIV cheap, bearish flow
Premium Sellers
Cash-Secured Put3.7
bullishIV too cheap, bearish flow
Covered Call5.7
bearishIV too cheap, bearish flow
For educational purposes only. Not investment advice.