COFCapital One Financial
Options Analysis Report•NATIONAL COMMERCIAL BANKS
Market Cap $115.6B|NYSE
● 2026-05-15$185.79
NEUTRAL
Analysis: 2026-05-14 EOD data
1Y -5.9%YTD -25.1%7D -1.9%
Options Vol
9,066
30D
Implied Move
±9.1%
IV Rank
36%
COF Options Overview
Mixed signals. No clear edge detected.
REWARDS
RISK ANALYSIS
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Value
Is IV priced right?
4.8
ExpensiveCheap
Measures whether options are cheap, fair, or rich relative to historical and peer
IV
levels.Risk Checks5/9 checks passed
IV Rank
≤35%IV Rank 48.9% — elevated vs history
IV/HV Ratio
<1.05xIV/HV 1.39x — IV premium over HV
Sector Relative≤50%
Sector percentile 75% — above sector median
Term Structure
<1.1xFront/Back 0.93x — contango
Skew Normal
<1.25xPut/Call IV 1.16x — elevated
Absolute IV
<80%ATM IV 34.5% — normal range
Spread-Adjusted Value
<80%Effective IV 57.2% (ATM 34.5% + spread 11.3% + bias) — good value
Execution Efficiency
<3.0%Total drag 16.92% (spread 11.34% + slippage 5.58%) — high friction
Vega Efficiency
≥5.0Vega efficiency 49.21 (vega 55.807 / spread 11.34%) — efficient
Sentiment
Bullish or bearish?
5.2
BearishBullish
Analyzes
put/call ratios
, open interest skew
, and flow direction to determine market bias.Risk ChecksBearish - Moderate signal (Conviction: -13%, Raw: -6%)
Flow Direction
|net sentiment| ≥25%Conviction-weighted: -13% (bearish) — Raw: -6%
OI Skew Magnitude
≥15%|OI skew| 2.3% — balanced
Volume-OI Alignment
Same sign, |vol skew| ≥10%Vol skew +18.8%, OI skew -2.3% — divergent (opposite)
Conviction Quality
≥2/3 conditions0-DTE 23%, far-OTM 15%, avg DTE 30
OI Momentum
|change| ≥3%OI change +0.0% (5d) — stable
Smart Money Flow
|weighted flow| ≥20%ITM: +68%, ATM: -15%, OTM: -15% — strong bullish (ITM/ATM divergent)
Sector Relative≤40% or ≥60%
Sector P/C percentile 60% — bearish vs sector
Activity
Unusual activity?
3.8
QuietActive
Detects volume surges,
block trades
, and unusual options activity that may signal moves.Risk Checks1/9 checks passed
Volume Surge
≥1.5xVolume 0.8x avg — normal
Turnover Rate
≥15%Vol/OI 4.7% — normal turnover
Strike Concentration
≥60%Top 3 strikes = 50% — dispersed
Multi-Day Persistence
≥2 days1 day(s) elevated — may be one-day event
OI Build
≥5%OI change +4.7% (5d) — building
Sector Relative≥60%
Sector activity percentile 72% — active vs sector
Trade Quality
≥30%Large trade volume 17% — mixed
Execution Urgency
≥60%Aggressive execution 43% — patient
Flow Conviction
≥30Conviction -13 (bearish) — mixed
Liquidity
Can I trade efficiently?
4.0
IlliquidLiquid
Evaluates
bid-ask spreads
, volume depth, and open interest for trade execution quality.Risk Checks3/8 checks passed
Tradeable Spread
≤5.0%Spread 11.3% — wide
Adequate OI
≥10,000OI 193,303 — deep
Active Volume
≥500Volume 9,066/day — active
Reasonable Cost
≤$0.50$0.57 to cross — expensive
Strike Coverage
≥5 strikes0 liquid strikes — limited options
Sector Relative≤40%
Sector spread percentile 76% — wider than sector
Order Book Depth
≥100 contractsDepth 100.69999999999999 contracts (bid:62.3 ask:38.4) — adequate
Execution Quality
<1.0%Avg slippage 5.58% — poor
Timing
Is now a good time?
7.2
RiskyFavorable
Considers earnings proximity,
time decay
, and event calendar for optimal entry timing.Risk Checks6/9 checks passed
Term Structure Clarity
|slope| ≥5%Slope -6.9% — contango
IV Percentile Clarity
<30 or >70IV percentile 49% — neutral
Event Detection
≥10pts kinkIV kink -1.2pts — no clear event
Theta/Vega Clarity
<0.5 or >2.0θ/ν ratio 1094.26 — favors income trades
Expiration Distribution
≥3 expirations5 liquid expirations — flexible
Event Risk
≥60% (safe)safe window: No events detected
Spread Momentum
<1.2 ratioSpread ratio 1.00x — stable
Flow Momentum
≥25% strength + ≥50% consistencyFlow -13% @ 56% consistency — unclear
Smart Money Timing
≥40 composite scoreScore 47 (ITM 20% + inst 17%) — moderate institutional
Directional Strategy Fit
Option Buyers
Long Calls5.2
bullishIV fair, mixed flow
Long Puts5.0
bearishIV fair, mixed flow
Premium Sellers
Cash-Secured Put5.3
bullishIV fair, mixed flow
Covered Call5.1
bearishIV fair, mixed flow
For educational purposes only. Not investment advice.