IV is elevated. Conditions favor premium sellers.
Is IV priced right?
Measures whether options are cheap, fair, or rich relative to historical and peer
IV Rank 96.8% — elevated vs history
IV/HV 1.29x — IV premium over HV
Sector percentile 97% — above sector median
Front/Back 1.27x — backwardation
Put/Call IV 1.16x — elevated
ATM IV 78.4% — normal range
Effective IV 90.3% (ATM 78.4% + spread 6.0% + bias) — expensive
Total drag 10.92% (spread 5.95% + slippage 4.97%) — high friction
Vega efficiency 48.14 (vega 28.646 / spread 5.95%) — efficient
Bullish or bearish?
Analyzes
Conviction-weighted: -8% (neutral) — Raw: -8%
|OI skew| 17.6% — call-heavy
Vol skew +16.0%, OI skew +17.6% — aligned
0-DTE 0%, far-OTM 15%, avg DTE 30
OI change +0.0% (5d) — stable
ITM: -14%, ATM: -8%, OTM: -8% — bearish (ITM/ATM aligned)
Sector P/C percentile 45% — neutral vs sector
Unusual activity?
Detects volume surges,
Volume 0.5x avg — normal
Vol/OI 8.7% — normal turnover
Top 3 strikes = 50% — dispersed
1 day(s) elevated — may be one-day event
OI change -2.3% (5d) — unwinding
Sector activity percentile 87% — very active vs sector
Large trade volume 11% — mostly retail
Aggressive execution 32% — patient
Conviction -8 (bearish) — mixed
Can I trade efficiently?
Evaluates
Spread 6.0% — wide
OI 1,144,692 — deep
Volume 99,200/day — active
$0.30 to cross — cheap
1 liquid strikes — limited options
Sector spread percentile 97% — much wider than sector
Depth 198.5 contracts (bid:99.5 ask:99.0) — adequate
Avg slippage 4.97% — poor
Is now a good time?
Considers earnings proximity,
Slope +26.8% — backwardation
IV percentile 97% — seller opportunity
IV kink 15.5pts — event priced
θ/ν ratio 128.75 — favors income trades
5 liquid expirations — flexible
HIGH RISK: Earnings in 8d; FOMC in 0d (HIGH)
Spread ratio 1.00x — stable
Flow -8% @ 54% consistency — unclear
Score 41 (ITM 20% + inst 11%) — moderate institutional
For educational purposes only. Not investment advice.