CRCLCircle Internet Group, Inc.
Options Analysis Report•FINANCE SERVICES
Market Cap $30.8B|NYSE
● 2026-05-15$123.88
BULLISH
Analysis: 2026-05-14 EOD data
1Y +48.8%YTD +48.4%7D +9.0%
Options Vol
265,689
30D
Implied Move
±28.4%
IV Rank
80%
CRCL Options Overview
IV is elevated with bullish flow. Conditions favor premium sellers.
REWARDS
RISK ANALYSIS
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Value
Is IV priced right?
2.5
ExpensiveCheap
Measures whether options are cheap, fair, or rich relative to historical and peer
IV
levels.Risk Checks3/9 checks passed
IV Rank
≤35%IV Rank 91.7% — elevated vs history
IV/HV Ratio
<1.05xIV/HV 0.87x — IV ≤ HV
Sector Relative≤50%
Sector percentile 95% — above sector median
Term Structure
<1.1xFront/Back 1.17x — backwardation
Skew Normal
<1.25xPut/Call IV 1.16x — elevated
Absolute IV
<80%ATM IV 101.7% — crisis-level IV
Spread-Adjusted Value
<80%Effective IV 120.4% (ATM 101.7% + spread 9.4% + bias) — expensive
Execution Efficiency
<3.0%Total drag 12.89% (spread 9.37% + slippage 3.52%) — high friction
Vega Efficiency
≥5.0Vega efficiency 26.63 (vega 24.956 / spread 9.37%) — efficient
Sentiment
Bullish or bearish?
6.4
BearishBullish
Analyzes
put/call ratios
, open interest skew
, and flow direction to determine market bias.Risk ChecksNeutral - Moderate signal (Conviction: -3%, Raw: -3%)
Flow Direction
|net sentiment| ≥25%Conviction-weighted: -3% (neutral) — Raw: -3%
OI Skew Magnitude
≥15%|OI skew| 15.0% — call-heavy
Volume-OI Alignment
Same sign, |vol skew| ≥10%Vol skew +64.3%, OI skew +15.0% — aligned
Conviction Quality
≥2/3 conditions0-DTE 59%, far-OTM 15%, avg DTE 30
OI Momentum
|change| ≥3%OI change +0.0% (5d) — stable
Smart Money Flow
|weighted flow| ≥20%ITM: +11%, ATM: -0%, OTM: -4% — neutral (ITM/ATM divergent)
Sector Relative≤40% or ≥60%
Sector P/C percentile 15% — very bullish vs sector
Activity
Unusual activity?
6.4
QuietActive
Detects volume surges,
block trades
, and unusual options activity that may signal moves.Risk Checks4/9 checks passed
Volume Surge
≥1.5xVolume 2.1x avg — hot
Turnover Rate
≥15%Vol/OI 29.7% — high turnover
Strike Concentration
≥60%Top 3 strikes = 50% — dispersed
Multi-Day Persistence
≥2 days1 day(s) elevated — may be one-day event
OI Build
≥5%OI change +30.6% (5d) — building
Sector Relative≥60%
Sector activity percentile 96% — very active vs sector
Trade Quality
≥30%Large trade volume 18% — mixed
Execution Urgency
≥60%Aggressive execution 46% — patient
Flow Conviction
≥30Conviction -3 (bearish) — mixed
Liquidity
Can I trade efficiently?
5.1
IlliquidLiquid
Evaluates
bid-ask spreads
, volume depth, and open interest for trade execution quality.Risk Checks4/8 checks passed
Tradeable Spread
≤5.0%Spread 9.4% — wide
Adequate OI
≥10,000OI 895,795 — deep
Active Volume
≥500Volume 265,689/day — active
Reasonable Cost
≤$0.50$0.47 to cross — cheap
Strike Coverage
≥5 strikes0 liquid strikes — limited options
Sector Relative≤40%
Sector spread percentile 95% — much wider than sector
Order Book Depth
≥100 contractsDepth 161.9 contracts (bid:79.7 ask:82.2) — adequate
Execution Quality
<1.0%Avg slippage 3.52% — poor
Timing
Is now a good time?
7.8
RiskyFavorable
Considers earnings proximity,
time decay
, and event calendar for optimal entry timing.Risk Checks8/9 checks passed
Term Structure Clarity
|slope| ≥5%Slope +17.3% — backwardation
IV Percentile Clarity
<30 or >70IV percentile 92% — seller opportunity
Event Detection
≥10pts kinkIV kink 10.8pts — event priced
Theta/Vega Clarity
<0.5 or >2.0θ/ν ratio 200.61 — favors income trades
Expiration Distribution
≥3 expirations5 liquid expirations — flexible
Event Risk
≥60% (safe)safe window: No earnings detected
Spread Momentum
<1.2 ratioSpread ratio 1.00x — stable
Flow Momentum
≥25% strength + ≥50% consistencyFlow -3% @ 52% consistency — unclear
Smart Money Timing
≥40 composite scoreScore 48 (ITM 20% + inst 18%) — moderate institutional
Directional Strategy Fit
Option Buyers
Long Calls5.1
bullishIV expensive, bullish flow
Long Puts4.1
bearishIV expensive, bullish flow
Premium Sellers
Cash-Secured Put6.8
bullishIV rich premium, bullish flow
Covered Call5.7
bearishIV rich premium, bullish flow
For educational purposes only. Not investment advice.