IV is elevated with unusual activity. Conditions favor premium sellers.
Is IV priced right?
Measures whether options are cheap, fair, or rich relative to historical and peer
IV Rank 82.8% — elevated vs history
IV/HV 1.04x — IV ≤ HV
Sector percentile 45% — below sector median
Front/Back 0.95x — contango
Put/Call IV 1.16x — elevated
ATM IV 50.0% — normal range
Effective IV 61.1% (ATM 50.0% + spread 5.6% + bias) — good value
Total drag 8.56% (spread 5.57% + slippage 2.99%) — high friction
Vega efficiency 145.24 (vega 80.898 / spread 5.57%) — efficient
Bullish or bearish?
Analyzes
Conviction-weighted: -16% (bearish) — Raw: -13%
|OI skew| 14.8% — balanced
Vol skew +3.9%, OI skew +14.8% — weak (same direction)
0-DTE 54%, far-OTM 15%, avg DTE 30
OI change +0.0% (5d) — stable
ITM: -24%, ATM: +7%, OTM: -9% — bearish (ITM/ATM divergent)
Sector P/C percentile 77% — very bearish vs sector
Unusual activity?
Detects volume surges,
Volume 1.4x avg — normal
Vol/OI 10.7% — normal turnover
Top 3 strikes = 50% — dispersed
1 day(s) elevated — may be one-day event
OI change +8.7% (5d) — building
Sector activity percentile 72% — active vs sector
Large trade volume 50% — heavy institutional
Aggressive execution 42% — patient
Conviction -16 (bearish) — mixed
Can I trade efficiently?
Evaluates
Spread 5.6% — wide
OI 962,187 — deep
Volume 103,023/day — active
$0.28 to cross — cheap
0 liquid strikes — limited options
Sector spread percentile 47% — neutral vs sector
Depth 248.8 contracts (bid:95.5 ask:153.3) — adequate
Avg slippage 2.99% — poor
Is now a good time?
Considers earnings proximity,
Slope -4.8% — flat/unclear
IV percentile 83% — seller opportunity
IV kink -7.3pts — no clear event
θ/ν ratio 2192.37 — favors income trades
5 liquid expirations — flexible
acceptable: Earnings in 12d
Spread ratio 1.00x — stable
Flow -16% @ 58% consistency — unclear
Score 80 (ITM 20% + inst 50%) — HIGH institutional
For educational purposes only. Not investment advice.