IV is elevated with unusual activity. Conditions favor premium sellers.
Neither score is at an extreme today. Neither axis is a forecast — this is where CRM sits on protection cost vs. fragility today.
Protection is priced in the fair band (5.47) — near-dated vol is priced 61% above far-dated, and the move being priced is 1.52x this name's own median 19-trading-day move, measured against this name's own rolling 19-trading-day realized moves (485 overlapping windows). Fragility reads resilient (3.01): it is trading 8% above its hedge wall on a wall graded HIGH for reliability, and its realized-vol regime is stable.
Is IV priced right?
Measures whether options are cheap, fair, or rich relative to historical and peer
IV Rank 89.8% — elevated vs history
IV/HV 1.05x — IV ≤ HV
Sector percentile 60% — above sector median
Front/Back 1.61x — backwardation
Put/Call IV 1.16x — elevated
ATM IV 48.9% — normal range
Effective IV 60.2% (ATM 48.9% + spread 5.7% + bias) — good value
Total drag 12.08% (spread 5.66% + slippage 6.42%) — high friction
Vega efficiency 40.71 (vega 23.043 / spread 5.66%) — efficient
Bullish or bearish?
Analyzes
Conviction-weighted: -2% (neutral) — Raw: +3%
|OI skew| 9.5% — balanced
Vol skew +13.7%, OI skew +9.5% — aligned
0-DTE 0%, far-OTM 15%, avg DTE 30
OI change +0.0% (5d) — stable
ITM: +4%, ATM: -3%, OTM: +6% — neutral (ITM/ATM divergent)
Sector P/C percentile 60% — bearish vs sector
Unusual activity?
Detects volume surges,
Volume 1.0x avg — normal
Vol/OI 7.0% — normal turnover
1 day(s) elevated — may be one-day event
OI change -2.4% (5d) — unwinding
Sector activity percentile 64% — active vs sector
Large trade volume 23% — mixed
Aggressive execution 26% — patient
Conviction -2 (bearish) — mixed
Can I trade efficiently?
Evaluates
Spread 5.7% — wide
OI 947,742 — deep
Volume 66,378/day — active
$0.28 to cross — cheap
0 liquid strikes — limited options
Sector spread percentile 60% — wider than sector
Depth 229.0 contracts (bid:76.5 ask:152.5) — adequate
Avg slippage 6.42% — poor
Is now a good time?
Considers earnings proximity,
Slope +60.6% — backwardation
IV percentile 90% — seller opportunity
IV kink 24.6pts — event priced
θ/ν ratio 112.57 — favors income trades
5 liquid expirations — flexible
HIGH RISK: Earnings in 2d (HIGH RISK)
Spread ratio 1.00x — stable
Flow -2% @ 51% consistency — unclear
Score 53 (ITM 20% + inst 23%) — moderate institutional
For educational purposes only. Not investment advice.