Options/CSX

CSXCSX Corporation

Options Analysis Report•RAILROADS, LINE-HAUL OPERATING

Market Cap $90.8B|NASDAQ

● 2026-09-11$49.04

NEUTRAL

Analysis: 2026-09-10 EOD data

1Y +49.3%YTD +35.2%7D -0.7%

Options Vol

2,369

30D

Implied Move

±7.9%

IV Rank

CSX Options Overview

Mixed signals. No clear edge detected.

REWARDS

RISK ANALYSIS

Snowflake Analysis

Balanced conditions with no clear edge

Learn

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CSX Gamma Walls

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CSX Hedge Radar

Neutral

Full Hedge Radar

Neither score is at an extreme today. Neither axis is a forecast — this is where CSX sits on protection cost vs. fragility today.

Protection is priced in the fair band (4.59) — implied vol sits in the 10th percentile of its own past year, and options are pricing vol 59% above what the stock has actually been realizing, measured against this name's own rolling 21-trading-day realized moves (483 overlapping windows). Fragility reads neutral (5.38): it is trading 2% below its hedge wall on a wall graded MEDIUM for reliability, and its realized-vol regime is stable.

Protection cost

4.59/ 10fair

Basis: cross_sectional

Fragility

5.38/ 10neutral

Basis: per_ticker

Value

Is IV priced right?

6.9

ExpensiveCheap

Measures whether options are cheap, fair, or rich relative to historical and peer

levels.

Risk Checks6/9 checks passed

IV Rank

≤35%

IV Rank 31.3% — cheap vs history

IV/HV Ratio

<1.05x

IV/HV 1.54x — IV premium over HV

Sector Relative≤50%

Sector percentile 32% — below sector median

Term Structure

<1.1x

Front/Back 1.00x — contango

Skew Normal

<1.25x

Put/Call IV 1.16x — elevated

Absolute IV

<80%

ATM IV 28.2% — normal range

Spread-Adjusted Value

<80%

Effective IV 57.8% (ATM 28.2% + spread 14.8% + bias) — good value

Execution Efficiency

<3.0%

Total drag 23.11% (spread 14.80% + slippage 8.31%) — high friction

Vega Efficiency

≥5.0

Vega efficiency 3.70 (vega 5.469 / spread 14.80%) — spread drag

Sentiment

Bullish or bearish?

4.5

BearishBullish

Analyzes

put/call ratios

open interest skew

, and flow direction to determine market bias.

Risk ChecksVery Bearish - Moderate signal (Conviction: -30%, Raw: -29%)

Flow Direction

|net sentiment| ≥25%

Conviction-weighted: -30% (strong bearish) — Raw: -29%

OI Skew Magnitude

≥15%

|OI skew| 14.2% — balanced

Volume-OI Alignment

Same sign, |vol skew| ≥10%

Vol skew -3.9%, OI skew +14.2% — divergent (opposite)

Conviction Quality

≥2/3 conditions

0-DTE 13%, far-OTM 15%, avg DTE 30

OI Momentum

|change| ≥3%

OI change +0.0% (5d) — stable

Smart Money Flow

|weighted flow| ≥20%

ITM: +20%, ATM: -26%, OTM: -33% — neutral (ITM/ATM divergent)

Sector Relative≤40% or ≥60%

Sector P/C percentile 59% — bearish vs sector

Activity

Unusual activity?

2.4

QuietActive

Detects volume surges,

block trades

, and unusual options activity that may signal moves.

Risk Checks1/8 checks passed

Volume Surge

≥1.5x

Volume 0.2x avg — normal

Turnover Rate

≥15%

Vol/OI 1.0% — normal turnover

Multi-Day Persistence

≥2 days

1 day(s) elevated — may be one-day event

OI Build

≥5%

OI change +1.1% (5d) — stable

Sector Relative≥60%

Sector activity percentile 12% — quiet vs sector

Trade Quality

≥30%

Large trade volume 0% — mostly retail

Execution Urgency

≥60%

Aggressive execution 37% — patient

Flow Conviction

≥30

Conviction -30 (bearish) — moderate

Liquidity

Can I trade efficiently?

3.8

IlliquidLiquid

Evaluates

bid-ask spreads

, volume depth, and open interest for trade execution quality.

Risk Checks4/8 checks passed

Tradeable Spread

≤5.0%

Spread 14.8% — wide

Adequate OI

≥10,000

OI 237,339 — deep

Active Volume

≥500

Volume 2,369/day — adequate

Reasonable Cost

≤$0.50

$0.74 to cross — expensive

Strike Coverage

≥5 strikes

0 liquid strikes — limited options

Sector Relative≤40%

Sector spread percentile 37% — tighter than sector

Order Book Depth

≥100 contracts

Depth 387.29999999999995 contracts (bid:224.6 ask:162.7) — adequate

Execution Quality

<1.0%

Avg slippage 8.31% — poor

Timing

Is now a good time?

6.2

RiskyFavorable

Considers earnings proximity,

time decay

, and event calendar for optimal entry timing.

Risk Checks4/9 checks passed

Term Structure Clarity

|slope| ≥5%

Slope -0.4% — flat/unclear

IV Percentile Clarity

<30 or >70

IV percentile 31% — neutral

Event Detection

≥10pts kink

IV kink -1.0pts — no clear event

Theta/Vega Clarity

<0.5 or >2.0

θ/ν ratio 232.71 — favors income trades

Expiration Distribution

≥3 expirations

5 liquid expirations — flexible

Event Risk

≥60% (safe)

caution advised: FOMC in 5d; CPI in 0d (HIGH)

Spread Momentum

<1.2 ratio

Spread ratio 1.00x — stable

Flow Momentum

≥25% strength + ≥50% consistency

Flow -30% @ 65% consistency — moderate (bearish)

Smart Money Timing

≥40 composite score

Score 30 (ITM 20% + inst 0%) — retail dominated

Directional Strategy Fit

Option Buyers

Long Calls5.5

bullishIV cheap, mixed flow

Long Puts5.8

bearishIV cheap, mixed flow

Premium Sellers

Cash-Secured Put4.2

bullishIV too cheap, mixed flow

Covered Call4.5

bearishIV too cheap, mixed flow

For educational purposes only. Not investment advice.

The Options Desk tracks the move options price into every US earnings report the week of Sep 7, next to how much each stock has actually moved on its past prints — plus the SPY, QQQ and IWM expected ranges and the gamma walls that box them in.

More on CSX

CSX gamma walls CSX option chain CSX max pain CSX expected move CSX IV rank CSX put/call ratio CSX options flow