Options/DLTR

DLTRDollar Tree Inc.

Options Analysis Report•RETAIL-VARIETY STORES

Market Cap $22.3B|NASDAQ

● 2026-09-11$118.17

NEUTRAL

Analysis: 2026-09-10 EOD data

1Y +21.3%YTD -7.5%7D -10.1%

Options Vol

2,458

30D

Implied Move

±10.3%

IV Rank

14%

DLTR Options Overview

Mixed signals. Conditions favor premium sellers.

REWARDS

RISK ANALYSIS

Snowflake Analysis

Balanced conditions with no clear edge

Learn

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DLTR Gamma Walls

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DLTR Hedge Radar

Hedge window open

Full Hedge Radar

Fragility reads high; protection is priced cheap. Neither axis is a forecast — this is where DLTR sits on protection cost vs. fragility today.

Protection is priced in the cheap band (2.22) — implied vol sits in the 14th percentile of its own past year, and near-dated vol is priced 1% above far-dated, measured against this name's own rolling 20-trading-day realized moves (484 overlapping windows). Fragility reads fragile (6.28): it is trading 8% below its hedge wall on a wall graded MEDIUM for reliability, and its realized-vol regime is stable.

Protection cost

2.22/ 10cheap

Basis: cross_sectional

Fragility

6.28/ 10fragile

Basis: per_ticker

Value

Is IV priced right?

5.9

ExpensiveCheap

Measures whether options are cheap, fair, or rich relative to historical and peer

levels.

Risk Checks5/9 checks passed

IV Rank

≤35%

IV Rank 67.2% — elevated vs history

IV/HV Ratio

<1.05x

IV/HV 0.95x — IV ≤ HV

Sector Relative≤50%

Sector percentile 84% — above sector median

Term Structure

<1.1x

Front/Back 1.01x — flat

Skew Normal

<1.25x

Put/Call IV 1.16x — elevated

Absolute IV

<80%

ATM IV 38.4% — normal range

Spread-Adjusted Value

<80%

Effective IV 86.8% (ATM 38.4% + spread 24.2% + bias) — expensive

Execution Efficiency

<3.0%

Total drag 38.87% (spread 24.21% + slippage 14.66%) — high friction

Vega Efficiency

≥5.0

Vega efficiency 5.51 (vega 13.337 / spread 24.21%) — acceptable

Sentiment

Bullish or bearish?

6.5

BearishBullish

Analyzes

put/call ratios

open interest skew

, and flow direction to determine market bias.

Risk ChecksNeutral - Moderate signal (Conviction: +3%, Raw: -7%)

Flow Direction

|net sentiment| ≥25%

Conviction-weighted: +3% (neutral) — Raw: -7%

OI Skew Magnitude

≥15%

|OI skew| 17.1% — call-heavy

Volume-OI Alignment

Same sign, |vol skew| ≥10%

Vol skew +27.6%, OI skew +17.1% — aligned

Conviction Quality

≥2/3 conditions

0-DTE 22%, far-OTM 15%, avg DTE 30

OI Momentum

|change| ≥3%

OI change +0.0% (5d) — stable

Smart Money Flow

|weighted flow| ≥20%

ITM: +15%, ATM: +3%, OTM: -16% — bullish (ITM/ATM aligned)

Sector Relative≤40% or ≥60%

Sector P/C percentile 23% — very bullish vs sector

Activity

Unusual activity?

2.0

QuietActive

Detects volume surges,

block trades

, and unusual options activity that may signal moves.

Risk Checks0/8 checks passed

Volume Surge

≥1.5x

Volume 0.4x avg — normal

Turnover Rate

≥15%

Vol/OI 2.5% — normal turnover

Multi-Day Persistence

≥2 days

1 day(s) elevated — may be one-day event

OI Build

≥5%

OI change -0.7% (5d) — stable

Sector Relative≥60%

Sector activity percentile 37% — below sector avg

Trade Quality

≥30%

Large trade volume 0% — mostly retail

Execution Urgency

≥60%

Aggressive execution 19% — patient

Flow Conviction

≥30

Conviction +3 (bullish) — mixed

Liquidity

Can I trade efficiently?

3.0

IlliquidLiquid

Evaluates

bid-ask spreads

, volume depth, and open interest for trade execution quality.

Risk Checks2/8 checks passed

Tradeable Spread

≤5.0%

Spread 24.2% — wide

Adequate OI

≥10,000

OI 98,386 — deep

Active Volume

≥500

Volume 2,458/day — adequate

Reasonable Cost

≤$0.50

$1.21 to cross — expensive

Strike Coverage

≥5 strikes

0 liquid strikes — limited options

Sector Relative≤40%

Sector spread percentile 86% — much wider than sector

Order Book Depth

≥100 contracts

Depth 51.0 contracts (bid:24.8 ask:26.2) — thin

Execution Quality

<1.0%

Avg slippage 14.66% — poor

Timing

Is now a good time?

5.5

RiskyFavorable

Considers earnings proximity,

time decay

, and event calendar for optimal entry timing.

Risk Checks3/9 checks passed

Term Structure Clarity

|slope| ≥5%

Slope +1.0% — flat/unclear

IV Percentile Clarity

<30 or >70

IV percentile 67% — neutral

Event Detection

≥10pts kink

IV kink 3.4pts — no clear event

Theta/Vega Clarity

<0.5 or >2.0

θ/ν ratio 170.12 — favors income trades

Expiration Distribution

≥3 expirations

5 liquid expirations — flexible

Event Risk

≥60% (safe)

caution advised: FOMC in 5d; CPI in 0d (HIGH)

Spread Momentum

<1.2 ratio

Spread ratio 1.00x — stable

Flow Momentum

≥25% strength + ≥50% consistency

Flow +3% @ 52% consistency — unclear

Smart Money Timing

≥40 composite score

Score 30 (ITM 20% + inst 0%) — retail dominated

Directional Strategy Fit

Option Buyers

Long Calls5.6

bullishIV fair, bullish flow

Long Puts4.6

bearishIV fair, bullish flow

Premium Sellers

Cash-Secured Put4.9

bullishIV fair, bullish flow

Covered Call3.9

bearishIV fair, bullish flow

For educational purposes only. Not investment advice.

The Options Desk tracks the move options price into every US earnings report the week of Sep 7, next to how much each stock has actually moved on its past prints — plus the SPY, QQQ and IWM expected ranges and the gamma walls that box them in.

More on DLTR

DLTR gamma walls DLTR option chain DLTR max pain DLTR expected move DLTR IV rank DLTR put/call ratio DLTR options flow