IV is low with bearish flow. Conditions favor option buyers.
Is IV priced right?
Measures whether options are cheap, fair, or rich relative to historical and peer
IV Rank 7.2% — cheap vs history
IV/HV 1.07x — IV premium over HV
Sector percentile 11% — below sector median
Front/Back 1.24x — backwardation
Put/Call IV 1.16x — elevated
ATM IV 21.6% — normal range
Effective IV 63.4% (ATM 21.6% + spread 20.9% + bias) — good value
Total drag 24.90% (spread 20.90% + slippage 4.00%) — high friction
Vega efficiency 5.29 (vega 11.062 / spread 20.90%) — acceptable
Bullish or bearish?
Analyzes
Conviction-weighted: -13% (bearish) — Raw: -14%
|OI skew| 26.2% — put-heavy
Vol skew -9.3%, OI skew -26.2% — weak (same direction)
0-DTE 52%, far-OTM 15%, avg DTE 30
OI change +0.0% (5d) — stable
ITM: +58%, ATM: -11%, OTM: -31% — strong bullish (ITM/ATM divergent)
Sector P/C percentile 88% — very bearish vs sector
Unusual activity?
Detects volume surges,
Volume 0.9x avg — normal
Vol/OI 3.3% — normal turnover
Top 3 strikes = 50% — dispersed
1 day(s) elevated — may be one-day event
OI change +6.1% (5d) — building
Sector activity percentile 52% — neutral vs sector
Large trade volume 78% — heavy institutional
Aggressive execution 12% — patient
Conviction -13 (bearish) — mixed
Can I trade efficiently?
Evaluates
Spread 20.9% — wide
OI 1,610,071 — deep
Volume 52,757/day — active
$1.04 to cross — expensive
0 liquid strikes — limited options
Sector spread percentile 25% — tighter than sector
Depth 231.3 contracts (bid:61.2 ask:170.1) — adequate
Avg slippage 4.00% — poor
Is now a good time?
Considers earnings proximity,
Slope +24.0% — backwardation
IV percentile 7% — buyer opportunity
IV kink 3.4pts — no clear event
θ/ν ratio 239.95 — favors income trades
5 liquid expirations — flexible
safe window: No earnings detected
Spread ratio 1.00x — stable
Flow -13% @ 57% consistency — unclear
Score 108 (ITM 20% + inst 78%) — HIGH institutional
For educational purposes only. Not investment advice.