ESTCElastic N.V.
Options Analysis Report•SERVICES-PREPACKAGED SOFTWARE
Market Cap $5.2B|NYSE
● 2026-05-15$49.78
BULLISH
Analysis: 2026-05-14 EOD data
1Y -46.0%YTD -31.4%7D -4.7%
Options Vol
657
30D
Implied Move
±8.6%
IV Rank
72%
ESTC Options Overview
IV is elevated with bullish flow. Conditions favor premium sellers.
REWARDS
RISK ANALYSIS
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Value
Is IV priced right?
3.1
ExpensiveCheap
Measures whether options are cheap, fair, or rich relative to historical and peer
IV
levels.Risk Checks3/9 checks passed
IV Rank
≤35%IV Rank 82.8% — elevated vs history
IV/HV Ratio
<1.05xIV/HV 1.54x — IV premium over HV
Sector Relative≤50%
Sector percentile 64% — above sector median
Term Structure
<1.1xFront/Back 1.13x — backwardation
Skew Normal
<1.25xPut/Call IV 1.16x — elevated
Absolute IV
<80%ATM IV 75.6% — normal range
Spread-Adjusted Value
<80%Effective IV 96.2% (ATM 75.6% + spread 10.3% + bias) — expensive
Execution Efficiency
<3.0%Total drag 14.14% (spread 10.32% + slippage 3.82%) — high friction
Vega Efficiency
≥5.0Vega efficiency 18.58 (vega 19.179 / spread 10.32%) — efficient
Sentiment
Bullish or bearish?
4.5
BearishBullish
Analyzes
put/call ratios
, open interest skew
, and flow direction to determine market bias.Risk ChecksVery Bearish - Strong signal (Conviction: -58%, Raw: -17%)
Flow Direction
|net sentiment| ≥25%Conviction-weighted: -58% (strong bearish) — Raw: -17%
OI Skew Magnitude
≥15%|OI skew| 73.3% — call-heavy
Volume-OI Alignment
Same sign, |vol skew| ≥10%Vol skew +82.6%, OI skew +73.3% — aligned
Conviction Quality
≥2/3 conditions0-DTE 10%, far-OTM 15%, avg DTE 30
OI Momentum
|change| ≥3%OI change +0.0% (5d) — stable
Smart Money Flow
|weighted flow| ≥20%ITM: -71%, ATM: -61%, OTM: +47% — strong bearish (ITM/ATM aligned)
Sector Relative≤40% or ≥60%
Sector P/C percentile 21% — very bullish vs sector
Activity
Unusual activity?
3.1
QuietActive
Detects volume surges,
block trades
, and unusual options activity that may signal moves.Risk Checks1/9 checks passed
Volume Surge
≥1.5xVolume 0.4x avg — normal
Turnover Rate
≥15%Vol/OI 0.9% — normal turnover
Strike Concentration
≥60%Top 3 strikes = 50% — dispersed
Multi-Day Persistence
≥2 days1 day(s) elevated — may be one-day event
OI Build
≥5%OI change +1.4% (5d) — stable
Sector Relative≥60%
Sector activity percentile 17% — quiet vs sector
Trade Quality
≥30%Large trade volume 23% — mixed
Execution Urgency
≥60%Aggressive execution 48% — patient
Flow Conviction
≥30Conviction -58 (bearish) — strong conviction
Liquidity
Can I trade efficiently?
3.7
IlliquidLiquid
Evaluates
bid-ask spreads
, volume depth, and open interest for trade execution quality.Risk Checks2/8 checks passed
Tradeable Spread
≤5.0%Spread 10.3% — wide
Adequate OI
≥10,000OI 69,215 — deep
Active Volume
≥500Volume 657/day — adequate
Reasonable Cost
≤$0.50$0.52 to cross — expensive
Strike Coverage
≥5 strikes0 liquid strikes — limited options
Sector Relative≤40%
Sector spread percentile 80% — much wider than sector
Order Book Depth
≥100 contractsDepth 94.5 contracts (bid:45.8 ask:48.7) — thin
Execution Quality
<1.0%Avg slippage 3.82% — poor
Timing
Is now a good time?
8.4
RiskyFavorable
Considers earnings proximity,
time decay
, and event calendar for optimal entry timing.Risk Checks8/9 checks passed
Term Structure Clarity
|slope| ≥5%Slope +13.1% — backwardation
IV Percentile Clarity
<30 or >70IV percentile 83% — seller opportunity
Event Detection
≥10pts kinkIV kink 9.6pts — no clear event
Theta/Vega Clarity
<0.5 or >2.0θ/ν ratio 1077.49 — favors income trades
Expiration Distribution
≥3 expirations3 liquid expirations — flexible
Event Risk
≥60% (safe)safe window: No earnings detected
Spread Momentum
<1.2 ratioSpread ratio 1.00x — stable
Flow Momentum
≥25% strength + ≥50% consistencyFlow -58% @ 79% consistency — STRONG directional (bearish)
Smart Money Timing
≥40 composite scoreScore 53 (ITM 20% + inst 23%) — moderate institutional
Directional Strategy Fit
Option Buyers
Long Calls4.4
bullishIV expensive, mixed flow
Long Puts4.8
bearishIV expensive, mixed flow
Premium Sellers
Cash-Secured Put5.9
bullishIV rich premium, mixed flow
Covered Call6.0
bearishIV rich premium, mixed flow
For educational purposes only. Not investment advice.