Options/ESTC

ESTCElastic N.V.

Options Analysis Report•SERVICES-PREPACKAGED SOFTWARE

Market Cap $8.8B|NYSE

● 2026-09-11$83.48

BULLISH

Analysis: 2026-09-10 EOD data

1Y -6.3%YTD +15.0%7D -9.1%

Options Vol

1,206

30D

Implied Move

±8.6%

IV Rank

20%

ESTC Options Overview

IV is elevated with bullish flow. No clear edge detected.

REWARDS

RISK ANALYSIS

Snowflake Analysis

Balanced conditions with no clear edge

Learn

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ESTC Gamma Walls

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ESTC Hedge Radar

Neutral

Full Hedge Radar

Neither score is at an extreme today. Neither axis is a forecast — this is where ESTC sits on protection cost vs. fragility today.

Protection is priced in the cheap band (1.81) — options are pricing vol 37% below what the stock has actually been realizing, and near-dated vol is priced 8% below far-dated, measured against this name's own rolling 26-trading-day realized moves (478 overlapping windows). Fragility reads neutral (4.95): it is trading 10% above its hedge wall on a wall graded MEDIUM for reliability, and its realized-vol regime is expanding.

Protection cost

1.81/ 10cheap

Basis: cross_sectional

Fragility

4.95/ 10neutral

Basis: per_ticker

Value

Is IV priced right?

7.1

ExpensiveCheap

Measures whether options are cheap, fair, or rich relative to historical and peer

levels.

Risk Checks5/9 checks passed

IV Rank

≤35%

IV Rank 79.6% — elevated vs history

IV/HV Ratio

<1.05x

IV/HV 0.62x — IV ≤ HV

Sector Relative≤50%

Sector percentile 52% — above sector median

Term Structure

<1.1x

Front/Back 0.95x — contango

Skew Normal

<1.25x

Put/Call IV 1.16x — elevated

Absolute IV

<80%

ATM IV 58.2% — normal range

Spread-Adjusted Value

<80%

Effective IV 80.7% (ATM 58.2% + spread 11.3% + bias) — expensive

Execution Efficiency

<3.0%

Total drag 21.80% (spread 11.27% + slippage 10.53%) — high friction

Vega Efficiency

≥5.0

Vega efficiency 25.15 (vega 28.339 / spread 11.27%) — efficient

Sentiment

Bullish or bearish?

7.7

BearishBullish

Analyzes

put/call ratios

open interest skew

, and flow direction to determine market bias.

Risk ChecksVery Bullish - Strong signal (Conviction: +35%, Raw: +38%)

Flow Direction

|net sentiment| ≥25%

Conviction-weighted: +35% (strong bullish) — Raw: +38%

OI Skew Magnitude

≥15%

|OI skew| 52.2% — call-heavy

Volume-OI Alignment

Same sign, |vol skew| ≥10%

Vol skew +57.2%, OI skew +52.2% — aligned

Conviction Quality

≥2/3 conditions

0-DTE 0%, far-OTM 15%, avg DTE 30

OI Momentum

|change| ≥3%

OI change +0.0% (5d) — stable

Smart Money Flow

|weighted flow| ≥20%

ITM: +54%, ATM: +72%, OTM: +32% — strong bullish (ITM/ATM aligned)

Sector Relative≤40% or ≥60%

Sector P/C percentile 26% — very bullish vs sector

Activity

Unusual activity?

3.9

QuietActive

Detects volume surges,

block trades

, and unusual options activity that may signal moves.

Risk Checks2/8 checks passed

Volume Surge

≥1.5x

Volume 0.3x avg — normal

Turnover Rate

≥15%

Vol/OI 1.8% — normal turnover

Multi-Day Persistence

≥2 days

1 day(s) elevated — may be one-day event

OI Build

≥5%

OI change +16.0% (5d) — building

Sector Relative≥60%

Sector activity percentile 50% — neutral vs sector

Trade Quality

≥30%

Large trade volume 0% — mostly retail

Execution Urgency

≥60%

Aggressive execution 56% — patient

Flow Conviction

≥30

Conviction +35 (bullish) — moderate

Liquidity

Can I trade efficiently?

3.4

IlliquidLiquid

Evaluates

bid-ask spreads

, volume depth, and open interest for trade execution quality.

Risk Checks2/8 checks passed

Tradeable Spread

≤5.0%

Spread 11.3% — wide

Adequate OI

≥10,000

OI 66,032 — deep

Active Volume

≥500

Volume 1,206/day — adequate

Reasonable Cost

≤$0.50

$0.56 to cross — expensive

Strike Coverage

≥5 strikes

0 liquid strikes — limited options

Sector Relative≤40%

Sector spread percentile 71% — wider than sector

Order Book Depth

≥100 contracts

Depth 61.099999999999994 contracts (bid:18.7 ask:42.4) — thin

Execution Quality

<1.0%

Avg slippage 10.53% — poor

Timing

Is now a good time?

6.3

RiskyFavorable

Considers earnings proximity,

time decay

, and event calendar for optimal entry timing.

Risk Checks6/9 checks passed

Term Structure Clarity

|slope| ≥5%

Slope -5.5% — contango

IV Percentile Clarity

<30 or >70

IV percentile 80% — seller opportunity

Event Detection

≥10pts kink

IV kink -3.2pts — no clear event

Theta/Vega Clarity

<0.5 or >2.0

θ/ν ratio 772.19 — favors income trades

Expiration Distribution

≥3 expirations

4 liquid expirations — flexible

Event Risk

≥60% (safe)

caution advised: FOMC in 5d; CPI in 0d (HIGH)

Spread Momentum

<1.2 ratio

Spread ratio 1.00x — stable

Flow Momentum

≥25% strength + ≥50% consistency

Flow +35% @ 68% consistency — moderate (bullish)

Smart Money Timing

≥40 composite score

Score 30 (ITM 20% + inst 0%) — retail dominated

Directional Strategy Fit

Option Buyers

Long Calls7.4

bullishIV cheap, bullish flow

Long Puts4.7

bearishIV cheap, bullish flow

Premium Sellers

Cash-Secured Put5.2

bullishIV too cheap, bullish flow

Covered Call3.3

bearishIV too cheap, bullish flow

For educational purposes only. Not investment advice.

The Options Desk tracks the move options price into every US earnings report the week of Sep 7, next to how much each stock has actually moved on its past prints — plus the SPY, QQQ and IWM expected ranges and the gamma walls that box them in.

More on ESTC

ESTC gamma walls ESTC option chain ESTC max pain ESTC expected move ESTC IV rank ESTC put/call ratio ESTC options flow