EXEExpand Energy Corporation Common Stock
Options Analysis Report•CRUDE PETROLEUM & NATURAL GAS
Market Cap $23.1B|NASDAQ
● 2026-05-15$96.70
NEUTRAL
Analysis: 2026-05-14 EOD data
1Y -15.2%YTD -11.9%7D +0.8%
Options Vol
18,150
30D
Implied Move
±8.6%
IV Rank
25%
EXE Options Overview
Mixed signals. No clear edge detected.
REWARDS
RISK ANALYSIS
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Value
Is IV priced right?
6.7
ExpensiveCheap
Measures whether options are cheap, fair, or rich relative to historical and peer
IV
levels.Risk Checks6/9 checks passed
IV Rank
≤35%IV Rank 41.3% — elevated vs history
IV/HV Ratio
<1.05xIV/HV 1.31x — IV premium over HV
Sector Relative≤50%
Sector percentile 27% — below sector median
Term Structure
<1.1xFront/Back 0.97x — contango
Skew Normal
<1.25xPut/Call IV 1.16x — elevated
Absolute IV
<80%ATM IV 32.4% — normal range
Spread-Adjusted Value
<80%Effective IV 56.4% (ATM 32.4% + spread 12.0% + bias) — good value
Execution Efficiency
<3.0%Total drag 16.66% (spread 11.99% + slippage 4.67%) — high friction
Vega Efficiency
≥5.0Vega efficiency 25.30 (vega 30.334 / spread 11.99%) — efficient
Sentiment
Bullish or bearish?
6.7
BearishBullish
Analyzes
put/call ratios
, open interest skew
, and flow direction to determine market bias.Risk ChecksVery Bullish - Strong signal (Conviction: +92%, Raw: +90%)
Flow Direction
|net sentiment| ≥25%Conviction-weighted: +92% (strong bullish) — Raw: +90%
OI Skew Magnitude
≥15%|OI skew| 40.1% — put-heavy
Volume-OI Alignment
Same sign, |vol skew| ≥10%Vol skew -87.3%, OI skew -40.1% — aligned
Conviction Quality
≥2/3 conditions0-DTE 24%, far-OTM 15%, avg DTE 30
OI Momentum
|change| ≥3%OI change +0.0% (5d) — stable
Smart Money Flow
|weighted flow| ≥20%ITM: +8%, ATM: +5%, OTM: +94% — neutral (ITM/ATM aligned)
Sector Relative≤40% or ≥60%
Sector P/C percentile 95% — very bearish vs sector
Activity
Unusual activity?
6.7
QuietActive
Detects volume surges,
block trades
, and unusual options activity that may signal moves.Risk Checks4/9 checks passed
Volume Surge
≥1.5xVolume 2.2x avg — hot
Turnover Rate
≥15%Vol/OI 8.2% — normal turnover
Strike Concentration
≥60%Top 3 strikes = 50% — dispersed
Multi-Day Persistence
≥2 days1 day(s) elevated — may be one-day event
OI Build
≥5%OI change +4.8% (5d) — building
Sector Relative≥60%
Sector activity percentile 86% — very active vs sector
Trade Quality
≥30%Large trade volume 89% — heavy institutional
Execution Urgency
≥60%Aggressive execution 57% — patient
Flow Conviction
≥30Conviction +92 (bullish) — strong conviction
Liquidity
Can I trade efficiently?
4.5
IlliquidLiquid
Evaluates
bid-ask spreads
, volume depth, and open interest for trade execution quality.Risk Checks4/8 checks passed
Tradeable Spread
≤5.0%Spread 12.0% — wide
Adequate OI
≥10,000OI 220,074 — deep
Active Volume
≥500Volume 18,150/day — active
Reasonable Cost
≤$0.50$0.60 to cross — expensive
Strike Coverage
≥5 strikes0 liquid strikes — limited options
Sector Relative≤40%
Sector spread percentile 27% — tighter than sector
Order Book Depth
≥100 contractsDepth 177.5 contracts (bid:103.7 ask:73.8) — adequate
Execution Quality
<1.0%Avg slippage 4.67% — poor
Timing
Is now a good time?
7.2
RiskyFavorable
Considers earnings proximity,
time decay
, and event calendar for optimal entry timing.Risk Checks6/9 checks passed
Term Structure Clarity
|slope| ≥5%Slope -2.5% — flat/unclear
IV Percentile Clarity
<30 or >70IV percentile 41% — neutral
Event Detection
≥10pts kinkIV kink -0.8pts — no clear event
Theta/Vega Clarity
<0.5 or >2.0θ/ν ratio 1313.16 — favors income trades
Expiration Distribution
≥3 expirations3 liquid expirations — flexible
Event Risk
≥60% (safe)safe window: No events detected
Spread Momentum
<1.2 ratioSpread ratio 1.00x — stable
Flow Momentum
≥25% strength + ≥50% consistencyFlow +92% @ 96% consistency — STRONG directional (bullish)
Smart Money Timing
≥40 composite scoreScore 119 (ITM 20% + inst 89%) — HIGH institutional
Directional Strategy Fit
Option Buyers
Long Calls6.4
bullishIV cheap, bullish flow
Long Puts5.2
bearishIV cheap, bullish flow
Premium Sellers
Cash-Secured Put5.3
bullishIV too cheap, bullish flow
Covered Call4.1
bearishIV too cheap, bullish flow
For educational purposes only. Not investment advice.