IV is elevated with bearish flow. Conditions favor premium sellers.
Is IV priced right?
Measures whether options are cheap, fair, or rich relative to historical and peer
IV Rank 90.4% — elevated vs history
IV/HV 1.25x — IV premium over HV
Sector percentile 95% — above sector median
Front/Back 0.96x — contango
Put/Call IV 1.16x — elevated
ATM IV 55.9% — normal range
Effective IV 100.8% (ATM 55.9% + spread 22.4% + bias) — expensive
Total drag 36.73% (spread 22.45% + slippage 14.28%) — high friction
Vega efficiency 1.86 (vega 4.173 / spread 22.45%) — spread drag
Bullish or bearish?
Analyzes
Conviction-weighted: -12% (bearish) — Raw: +2%
|OI skew| 7.6% — balanced
Vol skew -18.1%, OI skew -7.6% — aligned
0-DTE 41%, far-OTM 15%, avg DTE 30
OI change +0.0% (5d) — stable
ITM: -6%, ATM: -12%, OTM: +4% — neutral (ITM/ATM aligned)
Sector P/C percentile 79% — very bearish vs sector
Unusual activity?
Detects volume surges,
Volume 0.4x avg — normal
Vol/OI 2.3% — normal turnover
Top 3 strikes = 50% — dispersed
1 day(s) elevated — may be one-day event
OI change +7.3% (5d) — building
Sector activity percentile 38% — below sector avg
Large trade volume 0% — mostly retail
Aggressive execution 26% — patient
Conviction -12 (bearish) — mixed
Can I trade efficiently?
Evaluates
Spread 22.4% — wide
OI 12,210 — adequate
Volume 281/day — thin
$1.12 to cross — expensive
0 liquid strikes — limited options
Sector spread percentile 96% — much wider than sector
Depth 65.2 contracts (bid:35.0 ask:30.2) — thin
Avg slippage 14.28% — poor
Is now a good time?
Considers earnings proximity,
Slope -4.0% — flat/unclear
IV percentile 90% — seller opportunity
IV kink -3.1pts — no clear event
θ/ν ratio 2.17 — favors income trades
3 liquid expirations — flexible
safe window: No events detected
Spread ratio 1.00x — stable
Flow -12% @ 56% consistency — unclear
Score 30 (ITM 20% + inst 0%) — retail dominated
For educational purposes only. Not investment advice.