IV is low with bullish flow. Conditions favor option buyers.
Is IV priced right?
Measures whether options are cheap, fair, or rich relative to historical and peer
IV Rank 1.7% — cheap vs history
IV/HV 1.33x — IV premium over HV
Sector percentile 3% — below sector median
Front/Back 0.91x — contango
Put/Call IV 1.16x — elevated
ATM IV 13.3% — normal range
Effective IV 78.7% (ATM 13.3% + spread 32.7% + bias) — fair
Total drag 38.29% (spread 32.69% + slippage 5.60%) — high friction
Vega efficiency 5.16 (vega 16.879 / spread 32.69%) — acceptable
Bullish or bearish?
Analyzes
Conviction-weighted: -6% (neutral) — Raw: -8%
|OI skew| 75.3% — call-heavy
Vol skew +77.8%, OI skew +75.3% — aligned
0-DTE 1%, far-OTM 15%, avg DTE 30
OI change +0.0% (5d) — stable
ITM: -100%, ATM: +24%, OTM: -15% — strong bearish (ITM/ATM divergent)
Sector P/C percentile 10% — very bullish vs sector
Unusual activity?
Detects volume surges,
Volume 0.5x avg — normal
Vol/OI 2.2% — normal turnover
Top 3 strikes = 50% — dispersed
1 day(s) elevated — may be one-day event
OI change +2.4% (5d) — building
Sector activity percentile 40% — neutral vs sector
Large trade volume 0% — mostly retail
Aggressive execution 23% — patient
Conviction -6 (bearish) — mixed
Can I trade efficiently?
Evaluates
Spread 32.7% — wide
OI 104,285 — deep
Volume 2,272/day — adequate
$1.63 to cross — expensive
0 liquid strikes — limited options
Sector spread percentile 18% — much tighter than sector
Depth 79.1 contracts (bid:21.3 ask:57.8) — thin
Avg slippage 5.60% — poor
Is now a good time?
Considers earnings proximity,
Slope -8.5% — contango
IV percentile 2% — buyer opportunity
IV kink -3.8pts — no clear event
θ/ν ratio 2446.17 — favors income trades
3 liquid expirations — flexible
safe window: No earnings detected
Spread ratio 1.00x — stable
Flow -6% @ 53% consistency — unclear
Score 30 (ITM 20% + inst 0%) — retail dominated
For educational purposes only. Not investment advice.