GEOThe GEO Group, Inc.
Options Analysis Report•GENERAL BLDG CONTRACTORS - RESIDENTIAL BLDGS
Market Cap $3.1B|NYSE
● 2026-05-15$23.39
BULLISH
Analysis: 2026-05-14 EOD data
1Y -13.0%YTD +46.8%7D +7.5%
Options Vol
10,467
30D
Implied Move
±8.6%
IV Rank
18%
GEO Options Overview
bullish flow with unusual activity. No clear edge detected.
REWARDS
RISK ANALYSIS
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Value
Is IV priced right?
6.6
ExpensiveCheap
Measures whether options are cheap, fair, or rich relative to historical and peer
IV
levels.Risk Checks6/9 checks passed
IV Rank
≤35%IV Rank 68.2% — elevated vs history
IV/HV Ratio
<1.05xIV/HV 0.74x — IV ≤ HV
Sector Relative≤50%
Sector percentile 68% — above sector median
Term Structure
<1.1xFront/Back 0.92x — contango
Skew Normal
<1.25xPut/Call IV 1.16x — elevated
Absolute IV
<80%ATM IV 55.6% — normal range
Spread-Adjusted Value
<80%Effective IV 78.8% (ATM 55.6% + spread 11.6% + bias) — fair
Execution Efficiency
<3.0%Total drag 14.57% (spread 11.61% + slippage 2.96%) — high friction
Vega Efficiency
≥5.0Vega efficiency 6.28 (vega 7.288 / spread 11.61%) — acceptable
Sentiment
Bullish or bearish?
5.0
BearishBullish
Analyzes
put/call ratios
, open interest skew
, and flow direction to determine market bias.Risk ChecksVery Bearish - Strong signal (Conviction: -44%, Raw: -37%)
Flow Direction
|net sentiment| ≥25%Conviction-weighted: -44% (strong bearish) — Raw: -37%
OI Skew Magnitude
≥15%|OI skew| 53.2% — call-heavy
Volume-OI Alignment
Same sign, |vol skew| ≥10%Vol skew +96.7%, OI skew +53.2% — aligned
Conviction Quality
≥2/3 conditions0-DTE 9%, far-OTM 15%, avg DTE 30
OI Momentum
|change| ≥3%OI change +0.0% (5d) — stable
Smart Money Flow
|weighted flow| ≥20%ITM: -31%, ATM: +83%, OTM: -48% — bullish (ITM/ATM divergent)
Sector Relative≤40% or ≥60%
Sector P/C percentile 3% — very bullish vs sector
Activity
Unusual activity?
6.0
QuietActive
Detects volume surges,
block trades
, and unusual options activity that may signal moves.Risk Checks5/9 checks passed
Volume Surge
≥1.5xVolume 1.7x avg — elevated
Turnover Rate
≥15%Vol/OI 6.2% — normal turnover
Strike Concentration
≥60%Top 3 strikes = 50% — dispersed
Multi-Day Persistence
≥2 days1 day(s) elevated — may be one-day event
OI Build
≥5%OI change +6.0% (5d) — building
Sector Relative≥60%
Sector activity percentile 74% — active vs sector
Trade Quality
≥30%Large trade volume 82% — heavy institutional
Execution Urgency
≥60%Aggressive execution 23% — patient
Flow Conviction
≥30Conviction -44 (bearish) — moderate
Liquidity
Can I trade efficiently?
3.9
IlliquidLiquid
Evaluates
bid-ask spreads
, volume depth, and open interest for trade execution quality.Risk Checks3/8 checks passed
Tradeable Spread
≤5.0%Spread 11.6% — wide
Adequate OI
≥10,000OI 167,586 — deep
Active Volume
≥500Volume 10,467/day — active
Reasonable Cost
≤$0.50$0.58 to cross — expensive
Strike Coverage
≥5 strikes0 liquid strikes — limited options
Sector Relative≤40%
Sector spread percentile 81% — much wider than sector
Order Book Depth
≥100 contractsDepth 1,017.8 contracts (bid:559.9 ask:457.9) — deep
Execution Quality
<1.0%Avg slippage 2.96% — poor
Timing
Is now a good time?
7.7
RiskyFavorable
Considers earnings proximity,
time decay
, and event calendar for optimal entry timing.Risk Checks7/9 checks passed
Term Structure Clarity
|slope| ≥5%Slope -8.4% — contango
IV Percentile Clarity
<30 or >70IV percentile 68% — neutral
Event Detection
≥10pts kinkIV kink -2.4pts — no clear event
Theta/Vega Clarity
<0.5 or >2.0θ/ν ratio 809.83 — favors income trades
Expiration Distribution
≥3 expirations3 liquid expirations — flexible
Event Risk
≥60% (safe)safe window: No earnings detected
Spread Momentum
<1.2 ratioSpread ratio 1.00x — stable
Flow Momentum
≥25% strength + ≥50% consistencyFlow -44% @ 72% consistency — STRONG directional (bearish)
Smart Money Timing
≥40 composite scoreScore 112 (ITM 20% + inst 82%) — HIGH institutional
Directional Strategy Fit
Option Buyers
Long Calls5.8
bullishIV cheap, mixed flow
Long Puts5.8
bearishIV cheap, mixed flow
Premium Sellers
Cash-Secured Put4.3
bullishIV too cheap, mixed flow
Covered Call4.7
bearishIV too cheap, mixed flow
For educational purposes only. Not investment advice.