IV is low with unusual activity. Conditions favor option buyers.
Is IV priced right?
Measures whether options are cheap, fair, or rich relative to historical and peer
IV Rank 22.7% — cheap vs history
IV/HV 0.96x — IV ≤ HV
Sector percentile 37% — below sector median
Front/Back 0.99x — contango
Put/Call IV 1.16x — elevated
ATM IV 23.8% — normal range
Effective IV 32.7% (ATM 23.8% + spread 4.5% + bias) — excellent value
Total drag 6.51% (spread 4.47% + slippage 2.04%) — high friction
Vega efficiency 305.65 (vega 136.624 / spread 4.47%) — efficient
Bullish or bearish?
Analyzes
Conviction-weighted: -8% (neutral) — Raw: -6%
|OI skew| 25.2% — call-heavy
Vol skew +16.2%, OI skew +25.2% — aligned
0-DTE 12%, far-OTM 15%, avg DTE 30
OI change +0.0% (5d) — stable
ITM: +27%, ATM: -7%, OTM: -8% — bullish (ITM/ATM divergent)
Sector P/C percentile 24% — very bullish vs sector
Unusual activity?
Detects volume surges,
Volume 0.9x avg — normal
Vol/OI 6.9% — normal turnover
Top 3 strikes = 50% — dispersed
1 day(s) elevated — may be one-day event
OI change -6.0% (5d) — unwinding
Sector activity percentile 80% — active vs sector
Large trade volume 38% — institutional presence
Aggressive execution 26% — patient
Conviction -8 (bearish) — mixed
Can I trade efficiently?
Evaluates
Spread 4.5% — acceptable
OI 4,784,907 — deep
Volume 330,100/day — active
$0.22 to cross — cheap
8 liquid strikes — good coverage
Sector spread percentile 47% — neutral vs sector
Depth 287.29999999999995 contracts (bid:138.2 ask:149.1) — adequate
Avg slippage 2.04% — poor
Is now a good time?
Considers earnings proximity,
Slope -1.3% — flat/unclear
IV percentile 23% — buyer opportunity
IV kink 0.4pts — no clear event
θ/ν ratio 1574.01 — favors income trades
5 liquid expirations — flexible
HIGH RISK: No earnings detected; FOMC in 0d (HIGH)
Spread ratio 1.00x — stable
Flow -8% @ 54% consistency — unclear
Score 68 (ITM 20% + inst 38%) — HIGH institutional
For educational purposes only. Not investment advice.