HCCWarrior Met Coal, Inc.
Options Analysis Report•BITUMINOUS COAL & LIGNITE MINING
Market Cap $4.5B|NYSE
● 2026-05-15$85.87
BULLISH
Analysis: 2026-05-14 EOD data
1Y +83.2%YTD -4.1%7D +0.0%
Options Vol
65
30D
Implied Move
±8.6%
IV Rank
47%
HCC Options Overview
IV is elevated. Conditions favor premium sellers.
REWARDS
RISK ANALYSIS
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Value
Is IV priced right?
2.8
ExpensiveCheap
Measures whether options are cheap, fair, or rich relative to historical and peer
IV
levels.Risk Checks3/9 checks passed
IV Rank
≤35%IV Rank 71.3% — elevated vs history
IV/HV Ratio
<1.05xIV/HV 1.75x — IV premium over HV
Sector Relative≤50%
Sector percentile 70% — above sector median
Term Structure
<1.1xFront/Back 0.97x — contango
Skew Normal
<1.25xPut/Call IV 1.16x — elevated
Absolute IV
<80%ATM IV 59.2% — normal range
Spread-Adjusted Value
<80%Effective IV 133.4% (ATM 59.2% + spread 37.1% + bias) — expensive
Execution Efficiency
<3.0%Total drag 52.55% (spread 37.11% + slippage 15.44%) — high friction
Vega Efficiency
≥5.0Vega efficiency 0.47 (vega 1.755 / spread 37.11%) — spread drag
Sentiment
Bullish or bearish?
5.7
BearishBullish
Analyzes
put/call ratios
, open interest skew
, and flow direction to determine market bias.Risk ChecksBearish - Strong signal (Conviction: -23%, Raw: -30%)
Flow Direction
|net sentiment| ≥25%Conviction-weighted: -23% (bearish) — Raw: -30%
OI Skew Magnitude
≥15%|OI skew| 69.0% — call-heavy
Volume-OI Alignment
Same sign, |vol skew| ≥10%Vol skew +38.5%, OI skew +69.0% — aligned
Conviction Quality
≥2/3 conditions0-DTE 48%, far-OTM 15%, avg DTE 30
OI Momentum
|change| ≥3%OI change +0.0% (5d) — stable
Smart Money Flow
|weighted flow| ≥20%ITM: -33%, ATM: +23%, OTM: -46% — bearish (ITM/ATM divergent)
Sector Relative≤40% or ≥60%
Sector P/C percentile 65% — bearish vs sector
Activity
Unusual activity?
2.3
QuietActive
Detects volume surges,
block trades
, and unusual options activity that may signal moves.Risk Checks0/9 checks passed
Volume Surge
≥1.5xVolume 0.3x avg — normal
Turnover Rate
≥15%Vol/OI 0.3% — normal turnover
Strike Concentration
≥60%Top 3 strikes = 50% — dispersed
Multi-Day Persistence
≥2 days1 day(s) elevated — may be one-day event
OI Build
≥5%OI change +2.6% (5d) — building
Sector Relative≥60%
Sector activity percentile 3% — quiet vs sector
Trade Quality
≥30%Large trade volume 0% — mostly retail
Execution Urgency
≥60%Aggressive execution 22% — patient
Flow Conviction
≥30Conviction -23 (bearish) — mixed
Liquidity
Can I trade efficiently?
2.6
IlliquidLiquid
Evaluates
bid-ask spreads
, volume depth, and open interest for trade execution quality.Risk Checks1/8 checks passed
Tradeable Spread
≤5.0%Spread 37.1% — wide
Adequate OI
≥10,000OI 19,975 — adequate
Active Volume
≥500Volume 65/day — thin
Reasonable Cost
≤$0.50$1.86 to cross — expensive
Strike Coverage
≥5 strikes0 liquid strikes — limited options
Sector Relative≤40%
Sector spread percentile 83% — much wider than sector
Order Book Depth
≥100 contractsDepth 92.80000000000001 contracts (bid:47.2 ask:45.6) — thin
Execution Quality
<1.0%Avg slippage 15.44% — poor
Timing
Is now a good time?
6.3
RiskyFavorable
Considers earnings proximity,
time decay
, and event calendar for optimal entry timing.Risk Checks4/9 checks passed
Term Structure Clarity
|slope| ≥5%Slope -2.9% — flat/unclear
IV Percentile Clarity
<30 or >70IV percentile 71% — seller opportunity
Event Detection
≥10pts kinkIV kink 0.0pts — no clear event
Theta/Vega Clarity
<0.5 or >2.0θ/ν ratio 1.79 — favors mixed
Expiration Distribution
≥3 expirations3 liquid expirations — flexible
Event Risk
≥60% (safe)safe window: No earnings detected
Spread Momentum
<1.2 ratioSpread ratio 1.00x — stable
Flow Momentum
≥25% strength + ≥50% consistencyFlow -23% @ 63% consistency — unclear
Smart Money Timing
≥40 composite scoreScore 30 (ITM 20% + inst 0%) — retail dominated
Directional Strategy Fit
Option Buyers
Long Calls4.3
bullishIV expensive, mixed flow
Long Puts3.8
bearishIV expensive, mixed flow
Premium Sellers
Cash-Secured Put6.2
bullishIV rich premium, mixed flow
Covered Call5.1
bearishIV rich premium, mixed flow
For educational purposes only. Not investment advice.