HSYThe Hershey Company
Options Analysis Report•SUGAR & CONFECTIONERY PRODUCTS
Market Cap $38.6B|NYSE
● 2026-05-15$190.32
NEUTRAL
Analysis: 2026-05-14 EOD data
1Y +16.3%YTD +4.3%7D +2.4%
Options Vol
4,125
30D
Implied Move
±7.8%
IV Rank
24%
HSY Options Overview
IV is low with bullish flow. No clear edge detected.
REWARDS
RISK ANALYSIS
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Value
Is IV priced right?
7.2
ExpensiveCheap
Measures whether options are cheap, fair, or rich relative to historical and peer
IV
levels.Risk Checks7/9 checks passed
IV Rank
≤35%IV Rank 29.4% — cheap vs history
IV/HV Ratio
<1.05xIV/HV 1.28x — IV premium over HV
Sector Relative≤50%
Sector percentile 41% — below sector median
Term Structure
<1.1xFront/Back 0.96x — contango
Skew Normal
<1.25xPut/Call IV 1.16x — elevated
Absolute IV
<80%ATM IV 30.0% — normal range
Spread-Adjusted Value
<80%Effective IV 60.5% (ATM 30.0% + spread 15.3% + bias) — good value
Execution Efficiency
<3.0%Total drag 22.28% (spread 15.26% + slippage 7.02%) — high friction
Vega Efficiency
≥5.0Vega efficiency 37.57 (vega 57.335 / spread 15.26%) — efficient
Sentiment
Bullish or bearish?
4.0
BearishBullish
Analyzes
put/call ratios
, open interest skew
, and flow direction to determine market bias.Risk ChecksVery Bearish - Moderate signal (Conviction: -63%, Raw: -65%)
Flow Direction
|net sentiment| ≥25%Conviction-weighted: -63% (strong bearish) — Raw: -65%
OI Skew Magnitude
≥15%|OI skew| 3.5% — balanced
Volume-OI Alignment
Same sign, |vol skew| ≥10%Vol skew +81.8%, OI skew +3.5% — aligned
Conviction Quality
≥2/3 conditions0-DTE 75%, far-OTM 15%, avg DTE 30
OI Momentum
|change| ≥3%OI change +0.0% (5d) — stable
Smart Money Flow
|weighted flow| ≥20%ITM: -70%, ATM: -80%, OTM: -7% — strong bearish (ITM/ATM aligned)
Sector Relative≤40% or ≥60%
Sector P/C percentile 14% — very bullish vs sector
Activity
Unusual activity?
6.2
QuietActive
Detects volume surges,
block trades
, and unusual options activity that may signal moves.Risk Checks3/9 checks passed
Volume Surge
≥1.5xVolume 2.3x avg — hot
Turnover Rate
≥15%Vol/OI 12.8% — normal turnover
Strike Concentration
≥60%Top 3 strikes = 50% — dispersed
Multi-Day Persistence
≥2 days1 day(s) elevated — may be one-day event
OI Build
≥5%OI change +4.5% (5d) — building
Sector Relative≥60%
Sector activity percentile 89% — very active vs sector
Trade Quality
≥30%Large trade volume 16% — mixed
Execution Urgency
≥60%Aggressive execution 36% — patient
Flow Conviction
≥30Conviction -63 (bearish) — strong conviction
Liquidity
Can I trade efficiently?
3.4
IlliquidLiquid
Evaluates
bid-ask spreads
, volume depth, and open interest for trade execution quality.Risk Checks2/8 checks passed
Tradeable Spread
≤5.0%Spread 15.3% — wide
Adequate OI
≥10,000OI 32,181 — adequate
Active Volume
≥500Volume 4,125/day — adequate
Reasonable Cost
≤$0.50$0.76 to cross — expensive
Strike Coverage
≥5 strikes0 liquid strikes — limited options
Sector Relative≤40%
Sector spread percentile 43% — neutral vs sector
Order Book Depth
≥100 contractsDepth 46.2 contracts (bid:26.9 ask:19.3) — thin
Execution Quality
<1.0%Avg slippage 7.02% — poor
Timing
Is now a good time?
7.8
RiskyFavorable
Considers earnings proximity,
time decay
, and event calendar for optimal entry timing.Risk Checks7/9 checks passed
Term Structure Clarity
|slope| ≥5%Slope -3.7% — flat/unclear
IV Percentile Clarity
<30 or >70IV percentile 29% — buyer opportunity
Event Detection
≥10pts kinkIV kink 0.1pts — no clear event
Theta/Vega Clarity
<0.5 or >2.0θ/ν ratio 1291.33 — favors income trades
Expiration Distribution
≥3 expirations5 liquid expirations — flexible
Event Risk
≥60% (safe)safe window: No events detected
Spread Momentum
<1.2 ratioSpread ratio 1.00x — stable
Flow Momentum
≥25% strength + ≥50% consistencyFlow -63% @ 81% consistency — STRONG directional (bearish)
Smart Money Timing
≥40 composite scoreScore 46 (ITM 20% + inst 16%) — moderate institutional
Directional Strategy Fit
Option Buyers
Long Calls5.6
bullishIV cheap, mixed flow
Long Puts6.3
bearishIV cheap, mixed flow
Premium Sellers
Cash-Secured Put4.1
bullishIV too cheap, mixed flow
Covered Call4.8
bearishIV too cheap, mixed flow
For educational purposes only. Not investment advice.