IV is low with unusual activity. Conditions favor option buyers.
Is IV priced right?
Measures whether options are cheap, fair, or rich relative to historical and peer
IV Rank 3.1% — cheap vs history
IV/HV 1.65x — IV premium over HV
Sector percentile 5% — below sector median
Front/Back 0.90x — contango
Put/Call IV 1.16x — elevated
ATM IV 16.6% — normal range
Effective IV 42.2% (ATM 16.6% + spread 12.8% + bias) — excellent value
Total drag 14.13% (spread 12.81% + slippage 1.32%) — high friction
Vega efficiency 80.13 (vega 102.648 / spread 12.81%) — efficient
Bullish or bearish?
Analyzes
Conviction-weighted: +17% (bullish) — Raw: +17%
|OI skew| 17.7% — call-heavy
Vol skew -17.7%, OI skew +17.7% — divergent (opposite)
0-DTE 9%, far-OTM 15%, avg DTE 30
OI change +0.0% (5d) — stable
ITM: -63%, ATM: +25%, OTM: +14% — strong bearish (ITM/ATM divergent)
Sector P/C percentile 89% — very bearish vs sector
Unusual activity?
Detects volume surges,
Volume 1.1x avg — normal
Vol/OI 7.8% — normal turnover
Top 3 strikes = 50% — dispersed
1 day(s) elevated — may be one-day event
OI change +4.8% (5d) — building
Sector activity percentile 76% — active vs sector
Large trade volume 0% — mostly retail
Aggressive execution 6% — patient
Conviction +17 (bullish) — mixed
Can I trade efficiently?
Evaluates
Spread 12.8% — wide
OI 23,035 — adequate
Volume 1,787/day — adequate
$0.64 to cross — expensive
0 liquid strikes — limited options
Sector spread percentile 20% — tighter than sector
Depth 312.5 contracts (bid:123.5 ask:189.0) — adequate
Avg slippage 1.32% — fair
Is now a good time?
Considers earnings proximity,
Slope -10.5% — contango
IV percentile 3% — buyer opportunity
IV kink -0.2pts — no clear event
θ/ν ratio 488.57 — favors income trades
5 liquid expirations — flexible
safe window: No earnings detected
Spread ratio 1.00x — stable
Flow +17% @ 58% consistency — unclear
Score 30 (ITM 20% + inst 0%) — retail dominated
For educational purposes only. Not investment advice.