MOSThe Mosaic Company
Options Analysis Report•AGRICULTURAL CHEMICALS
Market Cap $7.2B|NYSE
● 2026-05-15$22.68
NEUTRAL
Analysis: 2026-05-14 EOD data
1Y -34.6%YTD -9.4%7D +2.2%
Options Vol
10,799
30D
Implied Move
±13.6%
IV Rank
53%
MOS Options Overview
IV is elevated. Conditions favor premium sellers.
REWARDS
RISK ANALYSIS
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Value
Is IV priced right?
3.1
ExpensiveCheap
Measures whether options are cheap, fair, or rich relative to historical and peer
IV
levels.Risk Checks3/9 checks passed
IV Rank
≤35%IV Rank 81.7% — elevated vs history
IV/HV Ratio
<1.05xIV/HV 1.87x — IV premium over HV
Sector Relative≤50%
Sector percentile 74% — above sector median
Term Structure
<1.1xFront/Back 1.03x — flat
Skew Normal
<1.25xPut/Call IV 1.16x — elevated
Absolute IV
<80%ATM IV 49.6% — normal range
Spread-Adjusted Value
<80%Effective IV 86.6% (ATM 49.6% + spread 18.5% + bias) — expensive
Execution Efficiency
<3.0%Total drag 24.38% (spread 18.48% + slippage 5.90%) — high friction
Vega Efficiency
≥5.0Vega efficiency 0.24 (vega 0.452 / spread 18.48%) — spread drag
Sentiment
Bullish or bearish?
6.2
BearishBullish
Analyzes
put/call ratios
, open interest skew
, and flow direction to determine market bias.Risk ChecksNeutral - Moderate signal (Conviction: +1%, Raw: +4%)
Flow Direction
|net sentiment| ≥25%Conviction-weighted: +1% (neutral) — Raw: +4%
OI Skew Magnitude
≥15%|OI skew| 29.1% — call-heavy
Volume-OI Alignment
Same sign, |vol skew| ≥10%Vol skew +21.3%, OI skew +29.1% — aligned
Conviction Quality
≥2/3 conditions0-DTE 18%, far-OTM 15%, avg DTE 30
OI Momentum
|change| ≥3%OI change +0.0% (5d) — stable
Smart Money Flow
|weighted flow| ≥20%ITM: +4%, ATM: -20%, OTM: +13% — neutral (ITM/ATM divergent)
Sector Relative≤40% or ≥60%
Sector P/C percentile 50% — neutral vs sector
Activity
Unusual activity?
3.1
QuietActive
Detects volume surges,
block trades
, and unusual options activity that may signal moves.Risk Checks1/9 checks passed
Volume Surge
≥1.5xVolume 0.6x avg — normal
Turnover Rate
≥15%Vol/OI 2.2% — normal turnover
Strike Concentration
≥60%Top 3 strikes = 50% — dispersed
Multi-Day Persistence
≥2 days1 day(s) elevated — may be one-day event
OI Build
≥5%OI change +8.4% (5d) — building
Sector Relative≥60%
Sector activity percentile 25% — below sector avg
Trade Quality
≥30%Large trade volume 22% — mixed
Execution Urgency
≥60%Aggressive execution 38% — patient
Flow Conviction
≥30Conviction +1 (bullish) — mixed
Liquidity
Can I trade efficiently?
3.7
IlliquidLiquid
Evaluates
bid-ask spreads
, volume depth, and open interest for trade execution quality.Risk Checks3/8 checks passed
Tradeable Spread
≤5.0%Spread 18.5% — wide
Adequate OI
≥10,000OI 499,999 — deep
Active Volume
≥500Volume 10,799/day — active
Reasonable Cost
≤$0.50$0.92 to cross — expensive
Strike Coverage
≥5 strikes0 liquid strikes — limited options
Sector Relative≤40%
Sector spread percentile 75% — wider than sector
Order Book Depth
≥100 contractsDepth 968.8 contracts (bid:504.5 ask:464.3) — deep
Execution Quality
<1.0%Avg slippage 5.90% — poor
Timing
Is now a good time?
7.0
RiskyFavorable
Considers earnings proximity,
time decay
, and event calendar for optimal entry timing.Risk Checks6/9 checks passed
Term Structure Clarity
|slope| ≥5%Slope +2.9% — flat/unclear
IV Percentile Clarity
<30 or >70IV percentile 82% — seller opportunity
Event Detection
≥10pts kinkIV kink 1.8pts — no clear event
Theta/Vega Clarity
<0.5 or >2.0θ/ν ratio 3.77 — favors income trades
Expiration Distribution
≥3 expirations5 liquid expirations — flexible
Event Risk
≥60% (safe)safe window: No events detected
Spread Momentum
<1.2 ratioSpread ratio 1.00x — stable
Flow Momentum
≥25% strength + ≥50% consistencyFlow +1% @ 50% consistency — unclear
Smart Money Timing
≥40 composite scoreScore 52 (ITM 20% + inst 22%) — moderate institutional
Directional Strategy Fit
Option Buyers
Long Calls4.9
bullishIV expensive, bullish flow
Long Puts4.0
bearishIV expensive, bullish flow
Premium Sellers
Cash-Secured Put6.0
bullishIV rich premium, bullish flow
Covered Call5.2
bearishIV rich premium, bullish flow
For educational purposes only. Not investment advice.