MRNAModerna, Inc. Common Stock
Options Analysis Report•BIOLOGICAL PRODUCTS, (NO DIAGNOSTIC SUBSTANCES)
Market Cap $19.9B|NASDAQ
● 2026-05-15$50.03
BULLISH
Analysis: 2026-05-14 EOD data
1Y +111.5%YTD +62.1%7D -7.9%
Options Vol
60,252
30D
Implied Move
±22.0%
IV Rank
46%
MRNA Options Overview
IV is elevated. Conditions favor premium sellers.
REWARDS
RISK ANALYSIS
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Value
Is IV priced right?
3.6
ExpensiveCheap
Measures whether options are cheap, fair, or rich relative to historical and peer
IV
levels.Risk Checks4/9 checks passed
IV Rank
≤35%IV Rank 98.1% — elevated vs history
IV/HV Ratio
<1.05xIV/HV 1.22x — IV premium over HV
Sector Relative≤50%
Sector percentile 98% — above sector median
Term Structure
<1.1xFront/Back 0.90x — contango
Skew Normal
<1.25xPut/Call IV 1.16x — elevated
Absolute IV
<80%ATM IV 76.5% — normal range
Spread-Adjusted Value
<80%Effective IV 100.9% (ATM 76.5% + spread 12.2% + bias) — expensive
Execution Efficiency
<3.0%Total drag 18.47% (spread 12.21% + slippage 6.26%) — high friction
Vega Efficiency
≥5.0Vega efficiency 8.28 (vega 10.111 / spread 12.21%) — efficient
Sentiment
Bullish or bearish?
5.5
BearishBullish
Analyzes
put/call ratios
, open interest skew
, and flow direction to determine market bias.Risk ChecksBearish - Strong signal (Conviction: -28%, Raw: -25%)
Flow Direction
|net sentiment| ≥25%Conviction-weighted: -28% (bearish) — Raw: -25%
OI Skew Magnitude
≥15%|OI skew| 12.2% — balanced
Volume-OI Alignment
Same sign, |vol skew| ≥10%Vol skew +77.9%, OI skew +12.2% — aligned
Conviction Quality
≥2/3 conditions0-DTE 41%, far-OTM 15%, avg DTE 30
OI Momentum
|change| ≥3%OI change +0.0% (5d) — stable
Smart Money Flow
|weighted flow| ≥20%ITM: -44%, ATM: -20%, OTM: -24% — strong bearish (ITM/ATM aligned)
Sector Relative≤40% or ≥60%
Sector P/C percentile 5% — very bullish vs sector
Activity
Unusual activity?
5.2
QuietActive
Detects volume surges,
block trades
, and unusual options activity that may signal moves.Risk Checks3/9 checks passed
Volume Surge
≥1.5xVolume 1.0x avg — normal
Turnover Rate
≥15%Vol/OI 7.9% — normal turnover
Strike Concentration
≥60%Top 3 strikes = 50% — dispersed
Multi-Day Persistence
≥2 days1 day(s) elevated — may be one-day event
OI Build
≥5%OI change +7.9% (5d) — building
Sector Relative≥60%
Sector activity percentile 83% — very active vs sector
Trade Quality
≥30%Large trade volume 57% — heavy institutional
Execution Urgency
≥60%Aggressive execution 42% — patient
Flow Conviction
≥30Conviction -28 (bearish) — mixed
Liquidity
Can I trade efficiently?
4.3
IlliquidLiquid
Evaluates
bid-ask spreads
, volume depth, and open interest for trade execution quality.Risk Checks3/8 checks passed
Tradeable Spread
≤5.0%Spread 12.2% — wide
Adequate OI
≥10,000OI 766,833 — deep
Active Volume
≥500Volume 60,252/day — active
Reasonable Cost
≤$0.50$0.61 to cross — expensive
Strike Coverage
≥5 strikes0 liquid strikes — limited options
Sector Relative≤40%
Sector spread percentile 98% — much wider than sector
Order Book Depth
≥100 contractsDepth 222.39999999999998 contracts (bid:120.6 ask:101.8) — adequate
Execution Quality
<1.0%Avg slippage 6.26% — poor
Timing
Is now a good time?
7.8
RiskyFavorable
Considers earnings proximity,
time decay
, and event calendar for optimal entry timing.Risk Checks8/9 checks passed
Term Structure Clarity
|slope| ≥5%Slope -10.0% — contango
IV Percentile Clarity
<30 or >70IV percentile 98% — seller opportunity
Event Detection
≥10pts kinkIV kink -5.3pts — no clear event
Theta/Vega Clarity
<0.5 or >2.0θ/ν ratio 232.97 — favors income trades
Expiration Distribution
≥3 expirations5 liquid expirations — flexible
Event Risk
≥60% (safe)safe window: No events detected
Spread Momentum
<1.2 ratioSpread ratio 1.00x — stable
Flow Momentum
≥25% strength + ≥50% consistencyFlow -28% @ 64% consistency — moderate (bearish)
Smart Money Timing
≥40 composite scoreScore 87 (ITM 20% + inst 57%) — HIGH institutional
Directional Strategy Fit
Option Buyers
Long Calls5.0
bullishIV expensive, mixed flow
Long Puts4.7
bearishIV expensive, mixed flow
Premium Sellers
Cash-Secured Put6.0
bullishIV rich premium, mixed flow
Covered Call5.5
bearishIV rich premium, mixed flow
For educational purposes only. Not investment advice.