IV is low with bearish flow and unusual activity. Conditions favor option buyers.
Is IV priced right?
Measures whether options are cheap, fair, or rich relative to historical and peer
IV Rank 19.8% — cheap vs history
IV/HV 1.27x — IV premium over HV
Sector percentile 29% — below sector median
Front/Back 1.02x — flat
Put/Call IV 1.16x — elevated
ATM IV 27.9% — normal range
Effective IV 48.3% (ATM 27.9% + spread 10.2% + bias) — excellent value
Total drag 16.34% (spread 10.20% + slippage 6.14%) — high friction
Vega efficiency 49.50 (vega 50.487 / spread 10.20%) — efficient
Bullish or bearish?
Analyzes
Conviction-weighted: -50% (strong bearish) — Raw: -54%
|OI skew| 87.4% — put-heavy
Vol skew -85.1%, OI skew -87.4% — aligned
0-DTE 6%, far-OTM 15%, avg DTE 30
OI change +0.0% (5d) — stable
ITM: +33%, ATM: -73%, OTM: -53% — neutral (ITM/ATM divergent)
Sector P/C percentile 98% — very bearish vs sector
Unusual activity?
Detects volume surges,
Volume 4.4x avg — hot
Vol/OI 35.7% — high turnover
Top 3 strikes = 50% — dispersed
1 day(s) elevated — may be one-day event
OI change +54.3% (5d) — building
Sector activity percentile 96% — very active vs sector
Large trade volume 85% — heavy institutional
Aggressive execution 82% — highly urgent
Conviction -50 (bearish) — strong conviction
Can I trade efficiently?
Evaluates
Spread 10.2% — wide
OI 134,511 — deep
Volume 48,020/day — active
$0.51 to cross — expensive
0 liquid strikes — limited options
Sector spread percentile 41% — neutral vs sector
Depth 64.1 contracts (bid:30.6 ask:33.5) — thin
Avg slippage 6.14% — poor
Is now a good time?
Considers earnings proximity,
Slope +1.5% — flat/unclear
IV percentile 20% — buyer opportunity
IV kink 0.5pts — no clear event
θ/ν ratio 436.36 — favors income trades
3 liquid expirations — flexible
safe window: No earnings detected
Spread ratio 1.00x — stable
Flow -50% @ 75% consistency — STRONG directional (bearish)
Score 115 (ITM 20% + inst 85%) — HIGH institutional
For educational purposes only. Not investment advice.