Mixed signals. Conditions favor premium sellers.
Is IV priced right?
Measures whether options are cheap, fair, or rich relative to historical and peer
IV Rank 65.5% — elevated vs history
IV/HV 1.26x — IV premium over HV
Sector percentile 65% — above sector median
Front/Back 0.93x — contango
Put/Call IV 1.16x — elevated
ATM IV 53.3% — normal range
Effective IV 64.4% (ATM 53.3% + spread 5.5% + bias) — good value
Total drag 12.79% (spread 5.54% + slippage 7.25%) — high friction
Vega efficiency 96.92 (vega 53.695 / spread 5.54%) — efficient
Bullish or bearish?
Analyzes
Conviction-weighted: -47% (strong bearish) — Raw: -27%
|OI skew| 19.5% — call-heavy
Vol skew +16.9%, OI skew +19.5% — aligned
0-DTE 28%, far-OTM 15%, avg DTE 30
OI change +0.0% (5d) — stable
ITM: -75%, ATM: -19%, OTM: -7% — strong bearish (ITM/ATM aligned)
Sector P/C percentile 55% — bearish vs sector
Unusual activity?
Detects volume surges,
Volume 0.6x avg — normal
Vol/OI 4.0% — normal turnover
Top 3 strikes = 50% — dispersed
1 day(s) elevated — may be one-day event
OI change +5.6% (5d) — building
Sector activity percentile 65% — active vs sector
Large trade volume 0% — mostly retail
Aggressive execution 35% — patient
Conviction -47 (bearish) — moderate
Can I trade efficiently?
Evaluates
Spread 5.5% — wide
OI 24,369 — adequate
Volume 987/day — adequate
$0.28 to cross — cheap
2 liquid strikes — limited options
Sector spread percentile 78% — wider than sector
Depth 23.8 contracts (bid:12.4 ask:11.4) — thin
Avg slippage 7.25% — poor
Is now a good time?
Considers earnings proximity,
Slope -7.0% — contango
IV percentile 66% — neutral
IV kink -1.7pts — no clear event
θ/ν ratio 132.03 — favors income trades
3 liquid expirations — flexible
safe window: No earnings detected
Spread ratio 1.00x — stable
Flow -47% @ 73% consistency — STRONG directional (bearish)
Score 30 (ITM 20% + inst 0%) — retail dominated
For educational purposes only. Not investment advice.