Options/NBIX

NBIXNeurocrine Biosciences Inc

Options Analysis Report•BIOLOGICAL PRODUCTS, (NO DIAGNOSTIC SUBSTANCES)

Market Cap $15.9B|NASDAQ

● 2026-09-11$156.57

VERY BULLISH

Analysis: 2026-09-10 EOD data

1Y +9.0%YTD +11.4%7D +0.6%

Options Vol

141

30D

Implied Move

±8.6%

IV Rank

18%

NBIX Options Overview

bullish flow. No clear edge detected.

REWARDS

RISK ANALYSIS

Snowflake Analysis

Balanced conditions with no clear edge

Learn

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NBIX Gamma Walls

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Value

Is IV priced right?

6.4

ExpensiveCheap

Measures whether options are cheap, fair, or rich relative to historical and peer

levels.

Risk Checks6/9 checks passed

IV Rank

≤35%

IV Rank 50.0% — elevated vs history

IV/HV Ratio

<1.05x

IV/HV 1.65x — IV premium over HV

Sector Relative≤50%

Sector percentile 21% — below sector median

Term Structure

<1.1x

Front/Back 0.61x — contango

Skew Normal

<1.25x

Put/Call IV 1.16x — elevated

Absolute IV

<80%

ATM IV 34.9% — normal range

Spread-Adjusted Value

<80%

Effective IV 59.1% (ATM 34.9% + spread 12.1% + bias) — good value

Execution Efficiency

<3.0%

Total drag 24.07% (spread 12.11% + slippage 11.96%) — high friction

Vega Efficiency

≥5.0

Vega efficiency 15.79 (vega 19.123 / spread 12.11%) — efficient

Sentiment

Bullish or bearish?

9.4

BearishBullish

Analyzes

put/call ratios

open interest skew

, and flow direction to determine market bias.

Risk ChecksVery Bullish - Strong signal (Conviction: +82%, Raw: +71%)

Flow Direction

|net sentiment| ≥25%

Conviction-weighted: +82% (strong bullish) — Raw: +71%

OI Skew Magnitude

≥15%

|OI skew| 18.1% — call-heavy

Volume-OI Alignment

Same sign, |vol skew| ≥10%

Vol skew +68.8%, OI skew +18.1% — aligned

Conviction Quality

≥2/3 conditions

0-DTE 0%, far-OTM 15%, avg DTE 30

OI Momentum

|change| ≥3%

OI change +0.0% (5d) — stable

Smart Money Flow

|weighted flow| ≥20%

ITM: -83%, ATM: +98%, OTM: +22% — bearish (ITM/ATM divergent)

Sector Relative≤40% or ≥60%

Sector P/C percentile 27% — very bullish vs sector

Activity

Unusual activity?

3.4

QuietActive

Detects volume surges,

block trades

, and unusual options activity that may signal moves.

Risk Checks2/8 checks passed

Volume Surge

≥1.5x

Volume 0.4x avg — normal

Turnover Rate

≥15%

Vol/OI 0.8% — normal turnover

Multi-Day Persistence

≥2 days

1 day(s) elevated — may be one-day event

OI Build

≥5%

OI change +3.6% (5d) — building

Sector Relative≥60%

Sector activity percentile 35% — below sector avg

Trade Quality

≥30%

Large trade volume 71% — heavy institutional

Execution Urgency

≥60%

Aggressive execution 43% — patient

Flow Conviction

≥30

Conviction +82 (bullish) — strong conviction

Liquidity

Can I trade efficiently?

2.9

IlliquidLiquid

Evaluates

bid-ask spreads

, volume depth, and open interest for trade execution quality.

Risk Checks1/8 checks passed

Tradeable Spread

≤5.0%

Spread 12.1% — wide

Adequate OI

≥10,000

OI 18,205 — adequate

Active Volume

≥500

Volume 141/day — thin

Reasonable Cost

≤$0.50

$0.61 to cross — expensive

Strike Coverage

≥5 strikes

0 liquid strikes — limited options

Sector Relative≤40%

Sector spread percentile 69% — wider than sector

Order Book Depth

≥100 contracts

Depth 38.5 contracts (bid:17.4 ask:21.1) — thin

Execution Quality

<1.0%

Avg slippage 11.96% — poor

Timing

Is now a good time?

6.6

RiskyFavorable

Considers earnings proximity,

time decay

, and event calendar for optimal entry timing.

Risk Checks6/9 checks passed

Term Structure Clarity

|slope| ≥5%

Slope -39.2% — contango

IV Percentile Clarity

<30 or >70

IV percentile 50% — neutral

Event Detection

≥10pts kink

IV kink -11.6pts — no clear event

Theta/Vega Clarity

<0.5 or >2.0

θ/ν ratio 213.43 — favors income trades

Expiration Distribution

≥3 expirations

4 liquid expirations — flexible

Event Risk

≥60% (safe)

caution advised: FOMC in 5d; CPI in 0d (HIGH)

Spread Momentum

<1.2 ratio

Spread ratio 1.00x — stable

Flow Momentum

≥25% strength + ≥50% consistency

Flow +82% @ 91% consistency — STRONG directional (bullish)

Smart Money Timing

≥40 composite score

Score 101 (ITM 20% + inst 71%) — HIGH institutional

Directional Strategy Fit

Option Buyers

Long Calls7.8

bullishIV cheap, bullish flow

Long Puts3.9

bearishIV cheap, bullish flow

Premium Sellers

Cash-Secured Put5.9

bullishIV too cheap, bullish flow

Covered Call2.9

bearishIV too cheap, bullish flow

For educational purposes only. Not investment advice.

The Options Desk tracks the move options price into every US earnings report the week of Sep 7, next to how much each stock has actually moved on its past prints — plus the SPY, QQQ and IWM expected ranges and the gamma walls that box them in.

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