NBIXNeurocrine Biosciences Inc
Options Analysis Report•BIOLOGICAL PRODUCTS, (NO DIAGNOSTIC SUBSTANCES)
Market Cap $16.0B|NASDAQ
● 2026-05-15$159.05
BULLISH
Analysis: 2026-05-14 EOD data
1Y +32.2%YTD +13.1%7D +4.5%
Options Vol
1,490
30D
Implied Move
±8.6%
IV Rank
39%
NBIX Options Overview
bullish flow with unusual activity. No clear edge detected.
REWARDS
RISK ANALYSIS
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Value
Is IV priced right?
7.1
ExpensiveCheap
Measures whether options are cheap, fair, or rich relative to historical and peer
IV
levels.Risk Checks7/9 checks passed
IV Rank
≤35%IV Rank 41.3% — elevated vs history
IV/HV Ratio
<1.05xIV/HV 0.99x — IV ≤ HV
Sector Relative≤50%
Sector percentile 21% — below sector median
Term Structure
<1.1xFront/Back 0.95x — contango
Skew Normal
<1.25xPut/Call IV 1.16x — elevated
Absolute IV
<80%ATM IV 38.1% — normal range
Spread-Adjusted Value
<80%Effective IV 63.3% (ATM 38.1% + spread 12.6% + bias) — good value
Execution Efficiency
<3.0%Total drag 18.37% (spread 12.60% + slippage 5.77%) — high friction
Vega Efficiency
≥5.0Vega efficiency 15.58 (vega 19.635 / spread 12.60%) — efficient
Sentiment
Bullish or bearish?
5.6
BearishBullish
Analyzes
put/call ratios
, open interest skew
, and flow direction to determine market bias.Risk ChecksBearish - Moderate signal (Conviction: -22%, Raw: +28%)
Flow Direction
|net sentiment| ≥25%Conviction-weighted: -22% (bearish) — Raw: +28%
OI Skew Magnitude
≥15%|OI skew| 6.7% — balanced
Volume-OI Alignment
Same sign, |vol skew| ≥10%Vol skew +38.1%, OI skew +6.7% — aligned
Conviction Quality
≥2/3 conditions0-DTE 34%, far-OTM 15%, avg DTE 30
OI Momentum
|change| ≥3%OI change +0.0% (5d) — stable
Smart Money Flow
|weighted flow| ≥20%ITM: -2%, ATM: -16%, OTM: +92% — neutral (ITM/ATM aligned)
Sector Relative≤40% or ≥60%
Sector P/C percentile 46% — neutral vs sector
Activity
Unusual activity?
6.8
QuietActive
Detects volume surges,
block trades
, and unusual options activity that may signal moves.Risk Checks5/9 checks passed
Volume Surge
≥1.5xVolume 4.5x avg — hot
Turnover Rate
≥15%Vol/OI 10.2% — normal turnover
Strike Concentration
≥60%Top 3 strikes = 50% — dispersed
Multi-Day Persistence
≥2 days2 day(s) elevated — sustained
OI Build
≥5%OI change +10.2% (5d) — building
Sector Relative≥60%
Sector activity percentile 89% — very active vs sector
Trade Quality
≥30%Large trade volume 57% — heavy institutional
Execution Urgency
≥60%Aggressive execution 18% — patient
Flow Conviction
≥30Conviction -22 (bearish) — mixed
Liquidity
Can I trade efficiently?
3.0
IlliquidLiquid
Evaluates
bid-ask spreads
, volume depth, and open interest for trade execution quality.Risk Checks2/8 checks passed
Tradeable Spread
≤5.0%Spread 12.6% — wide
Adequate OI
≥10,000OI 14,551 — adequate
Active Volume
≥500Volume 1,490/day — adequate
Reasonable Cost
≤$0.50$0.63 to cross — expensive
Strike Coverage
≥5 strikes0 liquid strikes — limited options
Sector Relative≤40%
Sector spread percentile 68% — wider than sector
Order Book Depth
≥100 contractsDepth 45.5 contracts (bid:27.0 ask:18.5) — thin
Execution Quality
<1.0%Avg slippage 5.77% — poor
Timing
Is now a good time?
6.8
RiskyFavorable
Considers earnings proximity,
time decay
, and event calendar for optimal entry timing.Risk Checks5/9 checks passed
Term Structure Clarity
|slope| ≥5%Slope -5.0% — flat/unclear
IV Percentile Clarity
<30 or >70IV percentile 41% — neutral
Event Detection
≥10pts kinkIV kink -0.1pts — no clear event
Theta/Vega Clarity
<0.5 or >2.0θ/ν ratio 174.07 — favors income trades
Expiration Distribution
≥3 expirations3 liquid expirations — flexible
Event Risk
≥60% (safe)safe window: No earnings detected
Spread Momentum
<1.2 ratioSpread ratio 1.00x — stable
Flow Momentum
≥25% strength + ≥50% consistencyFlow -22% @ 61% consistency — unclear
Smart Money Timing
≥40 composite scoreScore 87 (ITM 20% + inst 57%) — HIGH institutional
Directional Strategy Fit
Option Buyers
Long Calls5.9
bullishIV cheap, mixed flow
Long Puts5.5
bearishIV cheap, mixed flow
Premium Sellers
Cash-Secured Put4.5
bullishIV too cheap, mixed flow
Covered Call4.0
bearishIV too cheap, mixed flow
For educational purposes only. Not investment advice.