Options/NCLH

NCLHNorwegian Cruise Line Holdings Ltd. Ordinary Shares

Options Analysis Report•WATER TRANSPORTATION

Market Cap $7.6B|NYSE

● 2026-08-28$16.65

NEUTRAL

Analysis: 2026-08-27 EOD data

1Y -34.4%YTD -26.9%7D -3.4%

Options Vol

22,220

30D

Implied Move

±11.7%

IV Rank

10%

NCLH Options Overview

IV is elevated. Conditions favor premium sellers.

REWARDS

RISK ANALYSIS

Snowflake Analysis

Favorable conditions for premium sellers

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NCLH Gamma Walls

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NCLH Hedge Radar

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Full Hedge Radar

Fragility reads high; protection is priced cheap. Neither axis is a forecast — this is where NCLH sits on protection cost vs. fragility today.

Protection is priced in the cheap band (1.55) — downside puts carry 0.6 IV points LESS than at-the-money, and near-dated vol is priced 12% below far-dated, measured against this name's own rolling 20-trading-day realized moves (484 overlapping windows). Fragility reads fragile (7.03): it is trading 8% below its hedge wall on a wall graded HIGH for reliability, and its realized-vol regime is stable.

Protection cost

1.55/ 10cheap

Basis: cross_sectional

Fragility

7.03/ 10fragile

Basis: per_ticker

Value

Is IV priced right?

5.5

ExpensiveCheap

Measures whether options are cheap, fair, or rich relative to historical and peer

levels.

Risk Checks5/9 checks passed

IV Rank

≤35%

IV Rank 79.3% — elevated vs history

IV/HV Ratio

<1.05x

IV/HV 0.91x — IV ≤ HV

Sector Relative≤50%

Sector percentile 79% — above sector median

Term Structure

<1.1x

Front/Back 0.88x — contango

Skew Normal

<1.25x

Put/Call IV 1.16x — elevated

Absolute IV

<80%

ATM IV 41.5% — normal range

Spread-Adjusted Value

<80%

Effective IV 60.3% (ATM 41.5% + spread 9.4% + bias) — good value

Execution Efficiency

<3.0%

Total drag 14.28% (spread 9.39% + slippage 4.89%) — high friction

Vega Efficiency

≥5.0

Vega efficiency 1.42 (vega 1.329 / spread 9.39%) — spread drag

Sentiment

Bullish or bearish?

5.5

BearishBullish

Analyzes

put/call ratios

open interest skew

, and flow direction to determine market bias.

Risk ChecksVery Bullish - Moderate signal (Conviction: +35%, Raw: +35%)

Flow Direction

|net sentiment| ≥25%

Conviction-weighted: +35% (strong bullish) — Raw: +35%

OI Skew Magnitude

≥15%

|OI skew| 4.5% — balanced

Volume-OI Alignment

Same sign, |vol skew| ≥10%

Vol skew -17.7%, OI skew +4.5% — divergent (opposite)

Conviction Quality

≥2/3 conditions

0-DTE 15%, far-OTM 15%, avg DTE 30

OI Momentum

|change| ≥3%

OI change +0.0% (5d) — stable

Smart Money Flow

|weighted flow| ≥20%

ITM: -8%, ATM: +46%, OTM: +43% — bullish (ITM/ATM divergent)

Sector Relative≤40% or ≥60%

Sector P/C percentile 74% — very bearish vs sector

Activity

Unusual activity?

4.6

QuietActive

Detects volume surges,

block trades

, and unusual options activity that may signal moves.

Risk Checks2/8 checks passed

Volume Surge

≥1.5x

Volume 1.1x avg — normal

Turnover Rate

≥15%

Vol/OI 3.8% — normal turnover

Multi-Day Persistence

≥2 days

1 day(s) elevated — may be one-day event

OI Build

≥5%

OI change -1.2% (5d) — stable

Sector Relative≥60%

Sector activity percentile 46% — neutral vs sector

Trade Quality

≥30%

Large trade volume 45% — institutional presence

Execution Urgency

≥60%

Aggressive execution 52% — patient

Flow Conviction

≥30

Conviction +35 (bullish) — moderate

Liquidity

Can I trade efficiently?

4.6

IlliquidLiquid

Evaluates

bid-ask spreads

, volume depth, and open interest for trade execution quality.

Risk Checks4/8 checks passed

Tradeable Spread

≤5.0%

Spread 9.4% — wide

Adequate OI

≥10,000

OI 581,558 — deep

Active Volume

≥500

Volume 22,220/day — active

Reasonable Cost

≤$0.50

$0.47 to cross — cheap

Strike Coverage

≥5 strikes

0 liquid strikes — limited options

Sector Relative≤40%

Sector spread percentile 80% — much wider than sector

Order Book Depth

≥100 contracts

Depth 475.7 contracts (bid:248.6 ask:227.1) — adequate

Execution Quality

<1.0%

Avg slippage 4.89% — poor

Timing

Is now a good time?

8.1

RiskyFavorable

Considers earnings proximity,

time decay

, and event calendar for optimal entry timing.

Risk Checks8/9 checks passed

Term Structure Clarity

|slope| ≥5%

Slope -11.7% — contango

IV Percentile Clarity

<30 or >70

IV percentile 79% — seller opportunity

Event Detection

≥10pts kink

IV kink -1.6pts — no clear event

Theta/Vega Clarity

<0.5 or >2.0

θ/ν ratio 65.16 — favors income trades

Expiration Distribution

≥3 expirations

4 liquid expirations — flexible

Event Risk

≥60% (safe)

safe window: No events detected

Spread Momentum

<1.2 ratio

Spread ratio 1.00x — stable

Flow Momentum

≥25% strength + ≥50% consistency

Flow +35% @ 68% consistency — moderate (bullish)

Smart Money Timing

≥40 composite score

Score 75 (ITM 20% + inst 45%) — HIGH institutional

Directional Strategy Fit

Option Buyers

Long Calls5.8

bullishIV fair, mixed flow

Long Puts5.4

bearishIV fair, mixed flow

Premium Sellers

Cash-Secured Put5.4

bullishIV fair, mixed flow

Covered Call5.0

bearishIV fair, mixed flow

For educational purposes only. Not investment advice.