NCLHNorwegian Cruise Line Holdings Ltd. Ordinary Shares
Options Analysis Report•WATER TRANSPORTATION
Market Cap $7.3B|NYSE
● 2026-05-15$15.93
NEUTRAL
Analysis: 2026-05-14 EOD data
1Y -16.6%YTD -30.1%7D -6.7%
Options Vol
27,276
30D
Implied Move
±16.0%
IV Rank
54%
NCLH Options Overview
IV is elevated. Conditions favor premium sellers.
REWARDS
RISK ANALYSIS
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Value
Is IV priced right?
4.0
ExpensiveCheap
Measures whether options are cheap, fair, or rich relative to historical and peer
IV
levels.Risk Checks3/9 checks passed
IV Rank
≤35%IV Rank 91.3% — elevated vs history
IV/HV Ratio
<1.05xIV/HV 1.09x — IV premium over HV
Sector Relative≤50%
Sector percentile 94% — above sector median
Term Structure
<1.1xFront/Back 1.01x — flat
Skew Normal
<1.25xPut/Call IV 1.16x — elevated
Absolute IV
<80%ATM IV 56.9% — normal range
Spread-Adjusted Value
<80%Effective IV 82.5% (ATM 56.9% + spread 12.8% + bias) — expensive
Execution Efficiency
<3.0%Total drag 17.82% (spread 12.82% + slippage 5.00%) — high friction
Vega Efficiency
≥5.0Vega efficiency 3.70 (vega 4.737 / spread 12.82%) — spread drag
Sentiment
Bullish or bearish?
5.7
BearishBullish
Analyzes
put/call ratios
, open interest skew
, and flow direction to determine market bias.Risk ChecksBullish - Moderate signal (Conviction: +13%, Raw: +15%)
Flow Direction
|net sentiment| ≥25%Conviction-weighted: +13% (bullish) — Raw: +15%
OI Skew Magnitude
≥15%|OI skew| 17.1% — call-heavy
Volume-OI Alignment
Same sign, |vol skew| ≥10%Vol skew +4.3%, OI skew +17.1% — weak (same direction)
Conviction Quality
≥2/3 conditions0-DTE 19%, far-OTM 15%, avg DTE 30
OI Momentum
|change| ≥3%OI change +0.0% (5d) — stable
Smart Money Flow
|weighted flow| ≥20%ITM: -24%, ATM: +12%, OTM: +21% — neutral (ITM/ATM divergent)
Sector Relative≤40% or ≥60%
Sector P/C percentile 60% — bearish vs sector
Activity
Unusual activity?
4.4
QuietActive
Detects volume surges,
block trades
, and unusual options activity that may signal moves.Risk Checks1/9 checks passed
Volume Surge
≥1.5xVolume 0.7x avg — normal
Turnover Rate
≥15%Vol/OI 4.2% — normal turnover
Strike Concentration
≥60%Top 3 strikes = 50% — dispersed
Multi-Day Persistence
≥2 days1 day(s) elevated — may be one-day event
OI Build
≥5%OI change +4.8% (5d) — building
Sector Relative≥60%
Sector activity percentile 48% — neutral vs sector
Trade Quality
≥30%Large trade volume 36% — institutional presence
Execution Urgency
≥60%Aggressive execution 58% — patient
Flow Conviction
≥30Conviction +13 (bullish) — mixed
Liquidity
Can I trade efficiently?
4.0
IlliquidLiquid
Evaluates
bid-ask spreads
, volume depth, and open interest for trade execution quality.Risk Checks3/8 checks passed
Tradeable Spread
≤5.0%Spread 12.8% — wide
Adequate OI
≥10,000OI 654,304 — deep
Active Volume
≥500Volume 27,276/day — active
Reasonable Cost
≤$0.50$0.64 to cross — expensive
Strike Coverage
≥5 strikes0 liquid strikes — limited options
Sector Relative≤40%
Sector spread percentile 94% — much wider than sector
Order Book Depth
≥100 contractsDepth 530.7 contracts (bid:251.0 ask:279.7) — deep
Execution Quality
<1.0%Avg slippage 5.00% — poor
Timing
Is now a good time?
7.2
RiskyFavorable
Considers earnings proximity,
time decay
, and event calendar for optimal entry timing.Risk Checks6/9 checks passed
Term Structure Clarity
|slope| ≥5%Slope +0.5% — flat/unclear
IV Percentile Clarity
<30 or >70IV percentile 91% — seller opportunity
Event Detection
≥10pts kinkIV kink 2.3pts — no clear event
Theta/Vega Clarity
<0.5 or >2.0θ/ν ratio 667.25 — favors income trades
Expiration Distribution
≥3 expirations5 liquid expirations — flexible
Event Risk
≥60% (safe)safe window: No events detected
Spread Momentum
<1.2 ratioSpread ratio 1.00x — stable
Flow Momentum
≥25% strength + ≥50% consistencyFlow +13% @ 56% consistency — unclear
Smart Money Timing
≥40 composite scoreScore 66 (ITM 20% + inst 36%) — HIGH institutional
Directional Strategy Fit
Option Buyers
Long Calls5.1
bullishIV fair, mixed flow
Long Puts4.6
bearishIV fair, mixed flow
Premium Sellers
Cash-Secured Put5.7
bullishIV fair, mixed flow
Covered Call5.2
bearishIV fair, mixed flow
For educational purposes only. Not investment advice.