bearish flow. Conditions favor premium sellers.
Is IV priced right?
Measures whether options are cheap, fair, or rich relative to historical and peer
IV Rank 56.6% — elevated vs history
IV/HV 1.28x — IV premium over HV
Sector percentile 47% — below sector median
Front/Back 0.95x — contango
Put/Call IV 1.16x — elevated
ATM IV 36.9% — normal range
Effective IV 51.9% (ATM 36.9% + spread 7.5% + bias) — good value
Total drag 11.59% (spread 7.52% + slippage 4.07%) — high friction
Vega efficiency 50.68 (vega 38.113 / spread 7.52%) — efficient
Bullish or bearish?
Analyzes
Conviction-weighted: -47% (strong bearish) — Raw: -42%
|OI skew| 16.3% — call-heavy
Vol skew +3.5%, OI skew +16.3% — weak (same direction)
0-DTE 31%, far-OTM 15%, avg DTE 30
OI change +0.0% (5d) — stable
ITM: +27%, ATM: +6%, OTM: -52% — bullish (ITM/ATM aligned)
Sector P/C percentile 75% — very bearish vs sector
Unusual activity?
Detects volume surges,
Volume 0.5x avg — normal
Vol/OI 2.0% — normal turnover
Top 3 strikes = 50% — dispersed
1 day(s) elevated — may be one-day event
OI change +2.9% (5d) — building
Sector activity percentile 20% — quiet vs sector
Large trade volume 0% — mostly retail
Aggressive execution 52% — patient
Conviction -47 (bearish) — moderate
Can I trade efficiently?
Evaluates
Spread 7.5% — wide
OI 75,232 — deep
Volume 1,509/day — adequate
$0.38 to cross — cheap
0 liquid strikes — limited options
Sector spread percentile 50% — neutral vs sector
Depth 88.7 contracts (bid:43.1 ask:45.6) — thin
Avg slippage 4.07% — poor
Is now a good time?
Considers earnings proximity,
Slope -5.5% — contango
IV percentile 57% — neutral
IV kink -1.2pts — no clear event
θ/ν ratio 337.29 — favors income trades
3 liquid expirations — flexible
safe window: No events detected
Spread ratio 1.00x — stable
Flow -47% @ 74% consistency — STRONG directional (bearish)
Score 30 (ITM 20% + inst 0%) — retail dominated
For educational purposes only. Not investment advice.