NVAXNovavax Inc
Options Analysis Report•BIOLOGICAL PRODUCTS, (NO DIAGNOSTIC SUBSTANCES)
Market Cap $1.5B|NASDAQ
● 2026-05-15$9.35
BULLISH
Analysis: 2026-05-14 EOD data
1Y +48.6%YTD +31.1%7D -7.5%
Options Vol
14,097
30D
Implied Move
±21.7%
IV Rank
34%
NVAX Options Overview
IV is elevated with bullish flow. Conditions favor premium sellers.
REWARDS
RISK ANALYSIS
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Value
Is IV priced right?
3.8
ExpensiveCheap
Measures whether options are cheap, fair, or rich relative to historical and peer
IV
levels.Risk Checks2/9 checks passed
IV Rank
≤35%IV Rank 87.5% — elevated vs history
IV/HV Ratio
<1.05xIV/HV 1.21x — IV premium over HV
Sector Relative≤50%
Sector percentile 68% — above sector median
Term Structure
<1.1xFront/Back 0.96x — contango
Skew Normal
<1.25xPut/Call IV 1.16x — elevated
Absolute IV
<80%ATM IV 86.6% — crisis-level IV
Spread-Adjusted Value
<80%Effective IV 116.2% (ATM 86.6% + spread 14.8% + bias) — expensive
Execution Efficiency
<3.0%Total drag 24.13% (spread 14.81% + slippage 9.32%) — high friction
Vega Efficiency
≥5.0Vega efficiency 0.62 (vega 0.916 / spread 14.81%) — spread drag
Sentiment
Bullish or bearish?
7.4
BearishBullish
Analyzes
put/call ratios
, open interest skew
, and flow direction to determine market bias.Risk ChecksBullish - Strong signal (Conviction: +26%, Raw: +25%)
Flow Direction
|net sentiment| ≥25%Conviction-weighted: +26% (bullish) — Raw: +25%
OI Skew Magnitude
≥15%|OI skew| 39.2% — call-heavy
Volume-OI Alignment
Same sign, |vol skew| ≥10%Vol skew +64.5%, OI skew +39.2% — aligned
Conviction Quality
≥2/3 conditions0-DTE 29%, far-OTM 15%, avg DTE 30
OI Momentum
|change| ≥3%OI change +0.0% (5d) — stable
Smart Money Flow
|weighted flow| ≥20%ITM: +10%, ATM: +34%, OTM: +24% — bullish (ITM/ATM aligned)
Sector Relative≤40% or ≥60%
Sector P/C percentile 32% — bullish vs sector
Activity
Unusual activity?
4.6
QuietActive
Detects volume surges,
block trades
, and unusual options activity that may signal moves.Risk Checks2/9 checks passed
Volume Surge
≥1.5xVolume 0.8x avg — normal
Turnover Rate
≥15%Vol/OI 5.1% — normal turnover
Strike Concentration
≥60%Top 3 strikes = 50% — dispersed
Multi-Day Persistence
≥2 days1 day(s) elevated — may be one-day event
OI Build
≥5%OI change +7.6% (5d) — building
Sector Relative≥60%
Sector activity percentile 76% — active vs sector
Trade Quality
≥30%Large trade volume 27% — mixed
Execution Urgency
≥60%Aggressive execution 35% — patient
Flow Conviction
≥30Conviction +26 (bullish) — mixed
Liquidity
Can I trade efficiently?
3.6
IlliquidLiquid
Evaluates
bid-ask spreads
, volume depth, and open interest for trade execution quality.Risk Checks3/8 checks passed
Tradeable Spread
≤5.0%Spread 14.8% — wide
Adequate OI
≥10,000OI 274,468 — deep
Active Volume
≥500Volume 14,097/day — active
Reasonable Cost
≤$0.50$0.74 to cross — expensive
Strike Coverage
≥5 strikes0 liquid strikes — limited options
Sector Relative≤40%
Sector spread percentile 87% — much wider than sector
Order Book Depth
≥100 contractsDepth 656.7 contracts (bid:319.5 ask:337.2) — deep
Execution Quality
<1.0%Avg slippage 9.32% — poor
Timing
Is now a good time?
7.7
RiskyFavorable
Considers earnings proximity,
time decay
, and event calendar for optimal entry timing.Risk Checks7/9 checks passed
Term Structure Clarity
|slope| ≥5%Slope -4.3% — flat/unclear
IV Percentile Clarity
<30 or >70IV percentile 88% — seller opportunity
Event Detection
≥10pts kinkIV kink -0.9pts — no clear event
Theta/Vega Clarity
<0.5 or >2.0θ/ν ratio 59.46 — favors income trades
Expiration Distribution
≥3 expirations3 liquid expirations — flexible
Event Risk
≥60% (safe)safe window: No earnings detected
Spread Momentum
<1.2 ratioSpread ratio 1.00x — stable
Flow Momentum
≥25% strength + ≥50% consistencyFlow +26% @ 63% consistency — moderate (bullish)
Smart Money Timing
≥40 composite scoreScore 57 (ITM 20% + inst 27%) — moderate institutional
Directional Strategy Fit
Option Buyers
Long Calls5.6
bullishIV expensive, bullish flow
Long Puts3.9
bearishIV expensive, bullish flow
Premium Sellers
Cash-Secured Put6.2
bullishIV rich premium, bullish flow
Covered Call4.6
bearishIV rich premium, bullish flow
For educational purposes only. Not investment advice.