Options/PONY

PONYPony AI Inc. American Depositary Shares

Options Analysis Report

Market Cap $2.9B|NASDAQ

● 2026-09-11$6.63

BULLISH

Analysis: 2026-09-10 EOD data

1Y -56.5%YTD -58.7%7D -9.8%

Options Vol

1,024

30D

Implied Move

±20.2%

IV Rank

14%

PONY Options Overview

IV is elevated with bullish flow. Conditions favor premium sellers.

REWARDS

RISK ANALYSIS

Snowflake Analysis

Favorable conditions for premium sellers

Learn

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PONY Gamma Walls

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Value

Is IV priced right?

2.4

ExpensiveCheap

Measures whether options are cheap, fair, or rich relative to historical and peer

levels.

Risk Checks1/9 checks passed

IV Rank

≤35%

IV Rank 95.6% — elevated vs history

IV/HV Ratio

<1.05x

IV/HV 1.88x — IV premium over HV

Sector Relative≤50%

Sector percentile 98% — above sector median

Term Structure

<1.1x

Front/Back 3.03x — backwardation

Skew Normal

<1.25x

Put/Call IV 1.16x — elevated

Absolute IV

<80%

ATM IV 104.9% — crisis-level IV

Spread-Adjusted Value

<80%

Effective IV 134.9% (ATM 104.9% + spread 15.0% + bias) — expensive

Execution Efficiency

<3.0%

Total drag 24.97% (spread 14.99% + slippage 9.98%) — high friction

Vega Efficiency

≥5.0

Vega efficiency 0.09 (vega 0.132 / spread 14.99%) — spread drag

Sentiment

Bullish or bearish?

7.0

BearishBullish

Analyzes

put/call ratios

open interest skew

, and flow direction to determine market bias.

Risk ChecksBullish - Strong signal (Conviction: +23%, Raw: +16%)

Flow Direction

|net sentiment| ≥25%

Conviction-weighted: +23% (bullish) — Raw: +16%

OI Skew Magnitude

≥15%

|OI skew| 59.3% — call-heavy

Volume-OI Alignment

Same sign, |vol skew| ≥10%

Vol skew +23.8%, OI skew +59.3% — aligned

Conviction Quality

≥2/3 conditions

0-DTE 30%, far-OTM 15%, avg DTE 30

OI Momentum

|change| ≥3%

OI change +0.0% (5d) — stable

Smart Money Flow

|weighted flow| ≥20%

ITM: +7%, ATM: +27%, OTM: +17% — bullish (ITM/ATM aligned)

Sector Relative≤40% or ≥60%

Sector P/C percentile 41% — bullish vs sector

Activity

Unusual activity?

2.5

QuietActive

Detects volume surges,

block trades

, and unusual options activity that may signal moves.

Risk Checks0/8 checks passed

Volume Surge

≥1.5x

Volume 0.2x avg — normal

Turnover Rate

≥15%

Vol/OI 1.4% — normal turnover

Multi-Day Persistence

≥2 days

1 day(s) elevated — may be one-day event

OI Build

≥5%

OI change -3.0% (5d) — unwinding

Sector Relative≥60%

Sector activity percentile 51% — neutral vs sector

Trade Quality

≥30%

Large trade volume 0% — mostly retail

Execution Urgency

≥60%

Aggressive execution 35% — patient

Flow Conviction

≥30

Conviction +23 (bullish) — mixed

Liquidity

Can I trade efficiently?

3.0

IlliquidLiquid

Evaluates

bid-ask spreads

, volume depth, and open interest for trade execution quality.

Risk Checks3/8 checks passed

Tradeable Spread

≤5.0%

Spread 15.0% — wide

Adequate OI

≥10,000

OI 71,202 — deep

Active Volume

≥500

Volume 1,024/day — adequate

Reasonable Cost

≤$0.50

$0.75 to cross — expensive

Strike Coverage

≥5 strikes

0 liquid strikes — limited options

Sector Relative≤40%

Sector spread percentile 98% — much wider than sector

Order Book Depth

≥100 contracts

Depth 430.4 contracts (bid:177.7 ask:252.7) — adequate

Execution Quality

<1.0%

Avg slippage 9.98% — poor

Timing

Is now a good time?

6.4

RiskyFavorable

Considers earnings proximity,

time decay

, and event calendar for optimal entry timing.

Risk Checks5/9 checks passed

Term Structure Clarity

|slope| ≥5%

Slope +202.5% — backwardation

IV Percentile Clarity

<30 or >70

IV percentile 96% — seller opportunity

Event Detection

≥10pts kink

IV kink 135.8pts — event priced

Theta/Vega Clarity

<0.5 or >2.0

θ/ν ratio 1.46 — favors mixed

Expiration Distribution

≥3 expirations

3 liquid expirations — flexible

Event Risk

≥60% (safe)

caution advised: FOMC in 5d; CPI in 0d (HIGH)

Spread Momentum

<1.2 ratio

Spread ratio 1.00x — stable

Flow Momentum

≥25% strength + ≥50% consistency

Flow +23% @ 62% consistency — unclear

Smart Money Timing

≥40 composite score

Score 30 (ITM 20% + inst 0%) — retail dominated

Directional Strategy Fit

Option Buyers

Long Calls5.5

bullishIV expensive, bullish flow

Long Puts3.3

bearishIV expensive, bullish flow

Premium Sellers

Cash-Secured Put6.3

bullishIV rich premium, bullish flow

Covered Call4.9

bearishIV rich premium, bullish flow

For educational purposes only. Not investment advice.

The Options Desk tracks the move options price into every US earnings report the week of Sep 7, next to how much each stock has actually moved on its past prints — plus the SPY, QQQ and IWM expected ranges and the gamma walls that box them in.

More on PONY

PONY gamma walls PONY option chain PONY max pain PONY expected move PONY IV rank PONY put/call ratio PONY options flow