PONYPony AI Inc. American Depositary Shares
Options Analysis Report
Market Cap $3.8B|NASDAQ
● 2026-05-15$8.79
BULLISH
Analysis: 2026-05-14 EOD data
1Y -45.7%YTD -45.3%7D -5.4%
Options Vol
1,868
30D
Implied Move
±29.0%
IV Rank
52%
PONY Options Overview
Mixed signals. No clear edge detected.
REWARDS
RISK ANALYSIS
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Value
Is IV priced right?
5.6
ExpensiveCheap
Measures whether options are cheap, fair, or rich relative to historical and peer
IV
levels.Risk Checks6/9 checks passed
IV Rank
≤35%IV Rank 50.0% — elevated vs history
IV/HV Ratio
<1.05xIV/HV 1.00x — IV ≤ HV
Sector Relative≤50%
Sector percentile 50% — below sector median
Term Structure
<1.1xFront/Back 0.99x — contango
Skew Normal
<1.25xPut/Call IV 1.00x — normal
Absolute IV
<80%ATM IV 0.0% — normal range
Spread-Adjusted Value
<80%Effective IV 36.5% (ATM 0.0% + spread 18.2% + bias) — excellent value
Execution Efficiency
<3.0%Total drag 28.03% (spread 18.25% + slippage 9.78%) — high friction
Vega Efficiency
≥5.0Vega efficiency 0.00 (vega 0.000 / spread 18.25%) — spread drag
Sentiment
Bullish or bearish?
5.6
BearishBullish
Analyzes
put/call ratios
, open interest skew
, and flow direction to determine market bias.Risk ChecksBearish - Strong signal (Conviction: -25%, Raw: -21%)
Flow Direction
|net sentiment| ≥25%Conviction-weighted: -25% (bearish) — Raw: -21%
OI Skew Magnitude
≥15%|OI skew| 77.8% — call-heavy
Volume-OI Alignment
Same sign, |vol skew| ≥10%Vol skew +38.3%, OI skew +77.8% — aligned
Conviction Quality
≥2/3 conditions0-DTE 18%, far-OTM 15%, avg DTE 30
OI Momentum
|change| ≥3%OI change +0.0% (5d) — stable
Smart Money Flow
|weighted flow| ≥20%ITM: -17%, ATM: +100%, OTM: -24% — strong bullish (ITM/ATM divergent)
Sector Relative≤40% or ≥60%
Sector P/C percentile 45% — neutral vs sector
Activity
Unusual activity?
2.8
QuietActive
Detects volume surges,
block trades
, and unusual options activity that may signal moves.Risk Checks0/9 checks passed
Volume Surge
≥1.5xVolume 0.3x avg — normal
Turnover Rate
≥15%Vol/OI 1.5% — normal turnover
Strike Concentration
≥60%Top 3 strikes = 50% — dispersed
Multi-Day Persistence
≥2 days1 day(s) elevated — may be one-day event
OI Build
≥5%OI change +4.1% (5d) — building
Sector Relative≥60%
Sector activity percentile 39% — below sector avg
Trade Quality
≥30%Large trade volume 5% — mostly retail
Execution Urgency
≥60%Aggressive execution 30% — patient
Flow Conviction
≥30Conviction -25 (bearish) — mixed
Liquidity
Can I trade efficiently?
3.7
IlliquidLiquid
Evaluates
bid-ask spreads
, volume depth, and open interest for trade execution quality.Risk Checks4/8 checks passed
Tradeable Spread
≤5.0%Spread 18.2% — wide
Adequate OI
≥10,000OI 127,940 — deep
Active Volume
≥500Volume 1,868/day — adequate
Reasonable Cost
≤$0.50$0.91 to cross — expensive
Strike Coverage
≥5 strikes0 liquid strikes — limited options
Sector Relative≤40%
Sector spread percentile 0% — much tighter than sector
Order Book Depth
≥100 contractsDepth 804.6 contracts (bid:353.6 ask:451.0) — deep
Execution Quality
<1.0%Avg slippage 9.78% — poor
Timing
Is now a good time?
6.3
RiskyFavorable
Considers earnings proximity,
time decay
, and event calendar for optimal entry timing.Risk Checks4/9 checks passed
Term Structure Clarity
|slope| ≥5%Slope -1.3% — flat/unclear
IV Percentile Clarity
<30 or >70IV percentile 50% — neutral
Event Detection
≥10pts kinkIV kink -6.6pts — no clear event
Theta/Vega Clarity
<0.5 or >2.0θ/ν ratio 1.00 — favors mixed
Expiration Distribution
≥3 expirations3 liquid expirations — flexible
Event Risk
≥60% (safe)safe window: No earnings detected
Spread Momentum
<1.2 ratioSpread ratio 1.00x — stable
Flow Momentum
≥25% strength + ≥50% consistencyFlow -25% @ 62% consistency — moderate (bearish)
Smart Money Timing
≥40 composite scoreScore 35 (ITM 20% + inst 5%) — retail dominated
Directional Strategy Fit
Option Buyers
Long Calls5.4
bullishIV fair, mixed flow
Long Puts5.0
bearishIV fair, mixed flow
Premium Sellers
Cash-Secured Put5.0
bullishIV fair, mixed flow
Covered Call4.6
bearishIV fair, mixed flow
For educational purposes only. Not investment advice.