TGTTarget Corporation
Options Analysis Report•RETAIL-VARIETY STORES
Market Cap $55.9B|NYSE
● 2026-05-15$123.08
NEUTRAL
Analysis: 2026-05-14 EOD data
1Y +26.8%YTD +22.5%7D -1.7%
Options Vol
24,643
30D
Implied Move
±14.4%
IV Rank
48%
TGT Options Overview
IV is elevated. Conditions favor premium sellers.
REWARDS
RISK ANALYSIS
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Value
Is IV priced right?
3.0
ExpensiveCheap
Measures whether options are cheap, fair, or rich relative to historical and peer
IV
levels.Risk Checks4/9 checks passed
IV Rank
≤35%IV Rank 76.8% — elevated vs history
IV/HV Ratio
<1.05xIV/HV 1.44x — IV premium over HV
Sector Relative≤50%
Sector percentile 91% — above sector median
Term Structure
<1.1xFront/Back 1.90x — backwardation
Skew Normal
<1.25xPut/Call IV 1.16x — elevated
Absolute IV
<80%ATM IV 46.8% — normal range
Spread-Adjusted Value
<80%Effective IV 64.3% (ATM 46.8% + spread 8.7% + bias) — good value
Execution Efficiency
<3.0%Total drag 13.14% (spread 8.73% + slippage 4.41%) — high friction
Vega Efficiency
≥5.0Vega efficiency 50.70 (vega 44.264 / spread 8.73%) — efficient
Sentiment
Bullish or bearish?
6.0
BearishBullish
Analyzes
put/call ratios
, open interest skew
, and flow direction to determine market bias.Risk ChecksVery Bullish - Moderate signal (Conviction: +35%, Raw: +28%)
Flow Direction
|net sentiment| ≥25%Conviction-weighted: +35% (strong bullish) — Raw: +28%
OI Skew Magnitude
≥15%|OI skew| 6.1% — balanced
Volume-OI Alignment
Same sign, |vol skew| ≥10%Vol skew +3.6%, OI skew +6.1% — weak (same direction)
Conviction Quality
≥2/3 conditions0-DTE 17%, far-OTM 15%, avg DTE 30
OI Momentum
|change| ≥3%OI change +0.0% (5d) — stable
Smart Money Flow
|weighted flow| ≥20%ITM: +16%, ATM: +12%, OTM: +31% — bullish (ITM/ATM aligned)
Sector Relative≤40% or ≥60%
Sector P/C percentile 69% — bearish vs sector
Activity
Unusual activity?
4.3
QuietActive
Detects volume surges,
block trades
, and unusual options activity that may signal moves.Risk Checks2/9 checks passed
Volume Surge
≥1.5xVolume 0.8x avg — normal
Turnover Rate
≥15%Vol/OI 4.6% — normal turnover
Strike Concentration
≥60%Top 3 strikes = 50% — dispersed
Multi-Day Persistence
≥2 days1 day(s) elevated — may be one-day event
OI Build
≥5%OI change +5.8% (5d) — building
Sector Relative≥60%
Sector activity percentile 49% — neutral vs sector
Trade Quality
≥30%Large trade volume 23% — mixed
Execution Urgency
≥60%Aggressive execution 28% — patient
Flow Conviction
≥30Conviction +35 (bullish) — moderate
Liquidity
Can I trade efficiently?
4.7
IlliquidLiquid
Evaluates
bid-ask spreads
, volume depth, and open interest for trade execution quality.Risk Checks4/8 checks passed
Tradeable Spread
≤5.0%Spread 8.7% — wide
Adequate OI
≥10,000OI 532,449 — deep
Active Volume
≥500Volume 24,643/day — active
Reasonable Cost
≤$0.50$0.44 to cross — cheap
Strike Coverage
≥5 strikes0 liquid strikes — limited options
Sector Relative≤40%
Sector spread percentile 91% — much wider than sector
Order Book Depth
≥100 contractsDepth 205.7 contracts (bid:49.1 ask:156.6) — adequate
Execution Quality
<1.0%Avg slippage 4.41% — poor
Timing
Is now a good time?
7.9
RiskyFavorable
Considers earnings proximity,
time decay
, and event calendar for optimal entry timing.Risk Checks8/9 checks passed
Term Structure Clarity
|slope| ≥5%Slope +89.7% — backwardation
IV Percentile Clarity
<30 or >70IV percentile 77% — seller opportunity
Event Detection
≥10pts kinkIV kink 30.0pts — event priced
Theta/Vega Clarity
<0.5 or >2.0θ/ν ratio 1510.72 — favors income trades
Expiration Distribution
≥3 expirations5 liquid expirations — flexible
Event Risk
≥60% (safe)caution advised: Earnings in 5d (elevated risk)
Spread Momentum
<1.2 ratioSpread ratio 1.00x — stable
Flow Momentum
≥25% strength + ≥50% consistencyFlow +35% @ 67% consistency — moderate (bullish)
Smart Money Timing
≥40 composite scoreScore 53 (ITM 20% + inst 23%) — moderate institutional
Directional Strategy Fit
Option Buyers
Long Calls5.0
bullishIV expensive, mixed flow
Long Puts4.3
bearishIV expensive, mixed flow
Premium Sellers
Cash-Secured Put6.3
bullishIV rich premium, mixed flow
Covered Call5.6
bearishIV rich premium, mixed flow
For educational purposes only. Not investment advice.