Options/TGT

TGTTarget Corporation

Options Analysis Report•RETAIL-VARIETY STORES

Market Cap $74.1B|NYSE

● 2026-08-28$163.18

NEUTRAL

Analysis: 2026-08-27 EOD data

1Y +70.0%YTD +62.4%7D -1.4%

Options Vol

16,948

30D

Implied Move

±8.1%

IV Rank

TGT Options Overview

Mixed signals. No clear edge detected.

REWARDS

RISK ANALYSIS

Snowflake Analysis

Balanced conditions with no clear edge

Learn

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TGT Gamma Walls

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TGT Hedge Radar

No action needed

Full Hedge Radar

Fragility reads low; protection is priced cheap. Neither axis is a forecast — this is where TGT sits on protection cost vs. fragility today.

Protection is priced in the cheap band (2.11) — near-dated vol is priced 20% below far-dated, and implied vol sits in the 5th percentile of its own past year, measured against this name's own rolling 20-trading-day realized moves (484 overlapping windows). Fragility reads resilient (2.5): it is trading 19% above its hedge wall on a wall graded HIGH for reliability, and its realized-vol regime is stable.

Protection cost

2.11/ 10cheap

Basis: cross_sectional

Fragility

2.50/ 10resilient

Basis: per_ticker

Value

Is IV priced right?

6.6

ExpensiveCheap

Measures whether options are cheap, fair, or rich relative to historical and peer

levels.

Risk Checks6/9 checks passed

IV Rank

≤35%

IV Rank 52.4% — elevated vs history

IV/HV Ratio

<1.05x

IV/HV 1.00x — IV ≤ HV

Sector Relative≤50%

Sector percentile 73% — above sector median

Term Structure

<1.1x

Front/Back 0.80x — contango

Skew Normal

<1.25x

Put/Call IV 1.16x — elevated

Absolute IV

<80%

ATM IV 31.9% — normal range

Spread-Adjusted Value

<80%

Effective IV 45.3% (ATM 31.9% + spread 6.7% + bias) — excellent value

Execution Efficiency

<3.0%

Total drag 11.52% (spread 6.71% + slippage 4.81%) — high friction

Vega Efficiency

≥5.0

Vega efficiency 27.54 (vega 18.481 / spread 6.71%) — efficient

Sentiment

Bullish or bearish?

5.3

BearishBullish

Analyzes

put/call ratios

open interest skew

, and flow direction to determine market bias.

Risk ChecksBullish - Weak signal (Conviction: +21%, Raw: +18%)

Flow Direction

|net sentiment| ≥25%

Conviction-weighted: +21% (bullish) — Raw: +18%

OI Skew Magnitude

≥15%

|OI skew| 1.1% — balanced

Volume-OI Alignment

Same sign, |vol skew| ≥10%

Vol skew -2.5%, OI skew -1.1% — weak (same direction)

Conviction Quality

≥2/3 conditions

0-DTE 32%, far-OTM 15%, avg DTE 30

OI Momentum

|change| ≥3%

OI change +0.0% (5d) — stable

Smart Money Flow

|weighted flow| ≥20%

ITM: -2%, ATM: +25%, OTM: +15% — neutral (ITM/ATM divergent)

Sector Relative≤40% or ≥60%

Sector P/C percentile 63% — bearish vs sector

Activity

Unusual activity?

2.6

QuietActive

Detects volume surges,

block trades

, and unusual options activity that may signal moves.

Risk Checks0/8 checks passed

Volume Surge

≥1.5x

Volume 0.5x avg — normal

Turnover Rate

≥15%

Vol/OI 3.7% — normal turnover

Multi-Day Persistence

≥2 days

1 day(s) elevated — may be one-day event

OI Build

≥5%

OI change -6.5% (5d) — unwinding

Sector Relative≥60%

Sector activity percentile 46% — neutral vs sector

Trade Quality

≥30%

Large trade volume 12% — mostly retail

Execution Urgency

≥60%

Aggressive execution 26% — patient

Flow Conviction

≥30

Conviction +21 (bullish) — mixed

Liquidity

Can I trade efficiently?

5.0

IlliquidLiquid

Evaluates

bid-ask spreads

, volume depth, and open interest for trade execution quality.

Risk Checks4/8 checks passed

Tradeable Spread

≤5.0%

Spread 6.7% — wide

Adequate OI

≥10,000

OI 459,718 — deep

Active Volume

≥500

Volume 16,948/day — active

Reasonable Cost

≤$0.50

$0.34 to cross — cheap

Strike Coverage

≥5 strikes

0 liquid strikes — limited options

Sector Relative≤40%

Sector spread percentile 74% — wider than sector

Order Book Depth

≥100 contracts

Depth 158.6 contracts (bid:73.8 ask:84.8) — adequate

Execution Quality

<1.0%

Avg slippage 4.81% — poor

Timing

Is now a good time?

7.2

RiskyFavorable

Considers earnings proximity,

time decay

, and event calendar for optimal entry timing.

Risk Checks6/9 checks passed

Term Structure Clarity

|slope| ≥5%

Slope -20.3% — contango

IV Percentile Clarity

<30 or >70

IV percentile 52% — neutral

Event Detection

≥10pts kink

IV kink -4.0pts — no clear event

Theta/Vega Clarity

<0.5 or >2.0

θ/ν ratio 194.94 — favors income trades

Expiration Distribution

≥3 expirations

5 liquid expirations — flexible

Event Risk

≥60% (safe)

safe window: No events detected

Spread Momentum

<1.2 ratio

Spread ratio 1.00x — stable

Flow Momentum

≥25% strength + ≥50% consistency

Flow +21% @ 60% consistency — unclear

Smart Money Timing

≥40 composite score

Score 42 (ITM 20% + inst 12%) — moderate institutional

Directional Strategy Fit

Option Buyers

Long Calls6.0

bullishIV cheap, mixed flow

Long Puts5.8

bearishIV cheap, mixed flow

Premium Sellers

Cash-Secured Put5.0

bullishIV too cheap, mixed flow

Covered Call4.7

bearishIV too cheap, mixed flow

For educational purposes only. Not investment advice.

The Options Desk tracks the move options price into every US earnings report the week of Aug 31, next to how much each stock has actually moved on its past prints — plus the SPY, QQQ and IWM expected ranges and the gamma walls that box them in.