UALUnited Airlines Holdings, Inc. Common Stock
Options Analysis Report•AIR TRANSPORTATION, SCHEDULED
Market Cap $31.2B|NASDAQ
● 2026-05-15$96.02
NEUTRAL
Analysis: 2026-05-14 EOD data
1Y +25.5%YTD -15.0%7D -3.6%
Options Vol
20,714
30D
Implied Move
±16.0%
IV Rank
41%
UAL Options Overview
IV is elevated. Conditions favor premium sellers.
REWARDS
RISK ANALYSIS
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Value
Is IV priced right?
4.5
ExpensiveCheap
Measures whether options are cheap, fair, or rich relative to historical and peer
IV
levels.Risk Checks4/9 checks passed
IV Rank
≤35%IV Rank 88.5% — elevated vs history
IV/HV Ratio
<1.05xIV/HV 1.09x — IV premium over HV
Sector Relative≤50%
Sector percentile 94% — above sector median
Term Structure
<1.1xFront/Back 1.00x — flat
Skew Normal
<1.25xPut/Call IV 1.16x — elevated
Absolute IV
<80%ATM IV 54.6% — normal range
Spread-Adjusted Value
<80%Effective IV 87.5% (ATM 54.6% + spread 16.4% + bias) — expensive
Execution Efficiency
<3.0%Total drag 25.81% (spread 16.44% + slippage 9.37%) — high friction
Vega Efficiency
≥5.0Vega efficiency 7.99 (vega 13.130 / spread 16.44%) — efficient
Sentiment
Bullish or bearish?
5.0
BearishBullish
Analyzes
put/call ratios
, open interest skew
, and flow direction to determine market bias.Risk ChecksNeutral - Weak signal (Conviction: +8%, Raw: +4%)
Flow Direction
|net sentiment| ≥25%Conviction-weighted: +8% (neutral) — Raw: +4%
OI Skew Magnitude
≥15%|OI skew| 6.1% — balanced
Volume-OI Alignment
Same sign, |vol skew| ≥10%Vol skew -11.7%, OI skew +6.1% — divergent (opposite)
Conviction Quality
≥2/3 conditions0-DTE 32%, far-OTM 15%, avg DTE 30
OI Momentum
|change| ≥3%OI change +0.0% (5d) — stable
Smart Money Flow
|weighted flow| ≥20%ITM: -28%, ATM: -1%, OTM: +9% — bearish (ITM/ATM aligned)
Sector Relative≤40% or ≥60%
Sector P/C percentile 72% — very bearish vs sector
Activity
Unusual activity?
3.6
QuietActive
Detects volume surges,
block trades
, and unusual options activity that may signal moves.Risk Checks1/9 checks passed
Volume Surge
≥1.5xVolume 0.6x avg — normal
Turnover Rate
≥15%Vol/OI 4.4% — normal turnover
Strike Concentration
≥60%Top 3 strikes = 50% — dispersed
Multi-Day Persistence
≥2 days1 day(s) elevated — may be one-day event
OI Build
≥5%OI change +3.3% (5d) — building
Sector Relative≥60%
Sector activity percentile 63% — active vs sector
Trade Quality
≥30%Large trade volume 27% — mixed
Execution Urgency
≥60%Aggressive execution 18% — patient
Flow Conviction
≥30Conviction +8 (bullish) — mixed
Liquidity
Can I trade efficiently?
3.7
IlliquidLiquid
Evaluates
bid-ask spreads
, volume depth, and open interest for trade execution quality.Risk Checks3/8 checks passed
Tradeable Spread
≤5.0%Spread 16.4% — wide
Adequate OI
≥10,000OI 468,178 — deep
Active Volume
≥500Volume 20,714/day — active
Reasonable Cost
≤$0.50$0.82 to cross — expensive
Strike Coverage
≥5 strikes0 liquid strikes — limited options
Sector Relative≤40%
Sector spread percentile 95% — much wider than sector
Order Book Depth
≥100 contractsDepth 328.1 contracts (bid:85.7 ask:242.4) — adequate
Execution Quality
<1.0%Avg slippage 9.37% — poor
Timing
Is now a good time?
6.8
RiskyFavorable
Considers earnings proximity,
time decay
, and event calendar for optimal entry timing.Risk Checks6/9 checks passed
Term Structure Clarity
|slope| ≥5%Slope +0.0% — flat/unclear
IV Percentile Clarity
<30 or >70IV percentile 88% — seller opportunity
Event Detection
≥10pts kinkIV kink -0.1pts — no clear event
Theta/Vega Clarity
<0.5 or >2.0θ/ν ratio 161.30 — favors income trades
Expiration Distribution
≥3 expirations5 liquid expirations — flexible
Event Risk
≥60% (safe)safe window: No events detected
Spread Momentum
<1.2 ratioSpread ratio 1.00x — stable
Flow Momentum
≥25% strength + ≥50% consistencyFlow +8% @ 54% consistency — unclear
Smart Money Timing
≥40 composite scoreScore 57 (ITM 20% + inst 27%) — moderate institutional
Directional Strategy Fit
Option Buyers
Long Calls4.9
bullishIV fair, mixed flow
Long Puts4.9
bearishIV fair, mixed flow
Premium Sellers
Cash-Secured Put5.2
bullishIV fair, mixed flow
Covered Call5.2
bearishIV fair, mixed flow
For educational purposes only. Not investment advice.