UNPUnion Pacific Corp.
Options Analysis Report•RAILROADS, LINE-HAUL OPERATING
Market Cap $159.9B|NYSE
● 2026-05-15$269.34
BULLISH
Analysis: 2026-05-14 EOD data
1Y +16.7%YTD +16.1%7D +1.8%
Options Vol
22,540
30D
Implied Move
±6.8%
IV Rank
18%
UNP Options Overview
IV is low with bullish flow and unusual activity. Conditions favor option buyers.
REWARDS
RISK ANALYSIS
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Value
Is IV priced right?
8.9
ExpensiveCheap
Measures whether options are cheap, fair, or rich relative to historical and peer
IV
levels.Risk Checks8/9 checks passed
IV Rank
≤35%IV Rank 11.3% — cheap vs history
IV/HV Ratio
<1.05xIV/HV 0.75x — IV ≤ HV
Sector Relative≤50%
Sector percentile 7% — below sector median
Term Structure
<1.1xFront/Back 0.98x — contango
Skew Normal
<1.25xPut/Call IV 1.16x — elevated
Absolute IV
<80%ATM IV 25.3% — normal range
Spread-Adjusted Value
<80%Effective IV 52.0% (ATM 25.3% + spread 13.3% + bias) — good value
Execution Efficiency
<3.0%Total drag 17.64% (spread 13.33% + slippage 4.31%) — high friction
Vega Efficiency
≥5.0Vega efficiency 57.21 (vega 76.263 / spread 13.33%) — efficient
Sentiment
Bullish or bearish?
6.8
BearishBullish
Analyzes
put/call ratios
, open interest skew
, and flow direction to determine market bias.Risk ChecksNeutral - Strong signal (Conviction: +8%, Raw: +4%)
Flow Direction
|net sentiment| ≥25%Conviction-weighted: +8% (neutral) — Raw: +4%
OI Skew Magnitude
≥15%|OI skew| 33.1% — call-heavy
Volume-OI Alignment
Same sign, |vol skew| ≥10%Vol skew +94.1%, OI skew +33.1% — aligned
Conviction Quality
≥2/3 conditions0-DTE 5%, far-OTM 15%, avg DTE 30
OI Momentum
|change| ≥3%OI change +0.0% (5d) — stable
Smart Money Flow
|weighted flow| ≥20%ITM: +40%, ATM: +42%, OTM: +1% — strong bullish (ITM/ATM aligned)
Sector Relative≤40% or ≥60%
Sector P/C percentile 1% — very bullish vs sector
Activity
Unusual activity?
6.8
QuietActive
Detects volume surges,
block trades
, and unusual options activity that may signal moves.Risk Checks5/9 checks passed
Volume Surge
≥1.5xVolume 3.1x avg — hot
Turnover Rate
≥15%Vol/OI 17.8% — high turnover
Strike Concentration
≥60%Top 3 strikes = 50% — dispersed
Multi-Day Persistence
≥2 days1 day(s) elevated — may be one-day event
OI Build
≥5%OI change +22.2% (5d) — building
Sector Relative≥60%
Sector activity percentile 91% — very active vs sector
Trade Quality
≥30%Large trade volume 86% — heavy institutional
Execution Urgency
≥60%Aggressive execution 36% — patient
Flow Conviction
≥30Conviction +8 (bullish) — mixed
Liquidity
Can I trade efficiently?
4.3
IlliquidLiquid
Evaluates
bid-ask spreads
, volume depth, and open interest for trade execution quality.Risk Checks4/8 checks passed
Tradeable Spread
≤5.0%Spread 13.3% — wide
Adequate OI
≥10,000OI 126,341 — deep
Active Volume
≥500Volume 22,540/day — active
Reasonable Cost
≤$0.50$0.67 to cross — expensive
Strike Coverage
≥5 strikes0 liquid strikes — limited options
Sector Relative≤40%
Sector spread percentile 12% — much tighter than sector
Order Book Depth
≥100 contractsDepth 168.6 contracts (bid:81.5 ask:87.1) — adequate
Execution Quality
<1.0%Avg slippage 4.31% — poor
Timing
Is now a good time?
7.5
RiskyFavorable
Considers earnings proximity,
time decay
, and event calendar for optimal entry timing.Risk Checks6/9 checks passed
Term Structure Clarity
|slope| ≥5%Slope -2.4% — flat/unclear
IV Percentile Clarity
<30 or >70IV percentile 11% — buyer opportunity
Event Detection
≥10pts kinkIV kink 0.7pts — no clear event
Theta/Vega Clarity
<0.5 or >2.0θ/ν ratio 1303.65 — favors income trades
Expiration Distribution
≥3 expirations5 liquid expirations — flexible
Event Risk
≥60% (safe)safe window: No events detected
Spread Momentum
<1.2 ratioSpread ratio 1.00x — stable
Flow Momentum
≥25% strength + ≥50% consistencyFlow +8% @ 54% consistency — unclear
Smart Money Timing
≥40 composite scoreScore 116 (ITM 20% + inst 86%) — HIGH institutional
Directional Strategy Fit
Option Buyers
Long Calls7.7
bullishIV cheap, bullish flow
Long Puts6.0
bearishIV cheap, bullish flow
Premium Sellers
Cash-Secured Put4.7
bullishIV too cheap, bullish flow
Covered Call3.4
bearishIV too cheap, bullish flow
For educational purposes only. Not investment advice.