UPSTUpstart Holdings, Inc. Common stock
Options Analysis Report•FINANCE SERVICES
Market Cap $2.8B|NASDAQ
● 2026-05-15$29.71
BULLISH
Analysis: 2026-05-14 EOD data
1Y -37.3%YTD -35.2%7D +2.6%
Options Vol
33,459
30D
Implied Move
±19.8%
IV Rank
13%
UPST Options Overview
IV is elevated with bullish flow and unusual activity. Conditions favor premium sellers.
REWARDS
RISK ANALYSIS
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Value
Is IV priced right?
5.2
ExpensiveCheap
Measures whether options are cheap, fair, or rich relative to historical and peer
IV
levels.Risk Checks4/9 checks passed
IV Rank
≤35%IV Rank 82.7% — elevated vs history
IV/HV Ratio
<1.05xIV/HV 1.07x — IV premium over HV
Sector Relative≤50%
Sector percentile 89% — above sector median
Term Structure
<1.1xFront/Back 0.91x — contango
Skew Normal
<1.25xPut/Call IV 1.16x — elevated
Absolute IV
<80%ATM IV 75.3% — normal range
Spread-Adjusted Value
<80%Effective IV 98.4% (ATM 75.3% + spread 11.5% + bias) — expensive
Execution Efficiency
<3.0%Total drag 18.63% (spread 11.53% + slippage 7.10%) — high friction
Vega Efficiency
≥5.0Vega efficiency 6.49 (vega 7.486 / spread 11.53%) — acceptable
Sentiment
Bullish or bearish?
8.1
BearishBullish
Analyzes
put/call ratios
, open interest skew
, and flow direction to determine market bias.Risk ChecksVery Bullish - Strong signal (Conviction: +44%, Raw: +42%)
Flow Direction
|net sentiment| ≥25%Conviction-weighted: +44% (strong bullish) — Raw: +42%
OI Skew Magnitude
≥15%|OI skew| 25.8% — call-heavy
Volume-OI Alignment
Same sign, |vol skew| ≥10%Vol skew +66.4%, OI skew +25.8% — aligned
Conviction Quality
≥2/3 conditions0-DTE 25%, far-OTM 15%, avg DTE 30
OI Momentum
|change| ≥3%OI change +0.0% (5d) — stable
Smart Money Flow
|weighted flow| ≥20%ITM: +24%, ATM: +40%, OTM: +45% — strong bullish (ITM/ATM aligned)
Sector Relative≤40% or ≥60%
Sector P/C percentile 14% — very bullish vs sector
Activity
Unusual activity?
5.9
QuietActive
Detects volume surges,
block trades
, and unusual options activity that may signal moves.Risk Checks3/9 checks passed
Volume Surge
≥1.5xVolume 1.4x avg — normal
Turnover Rate
≥15%Vol/OI 9.6% — normal turnover
Strike Concentration
≥60%Top 3 strikes = 50% — dispersed
Multi-Day Persistence
≥2 days1 day(s) elevated — may be one-day event
OI Build
≥5%OI change +12.4% (5d) — building
Sector Relative≥60%
Sector activity percentile 81% — very active vs sector
Trade Quality
≥30%Large trade volume 29% — mixed
Execution Urgency
≥60%Aggressive execution 42% — patient
Flow Conviction
≥30Conviction +44 (bullish) — moderate
Liquidity
Can I trade efficiently?
4.1
IlliquidLiquid
Evaluates
bid-ask spreads
, volume depth, and open interest for trade execution quality.Risk Checks3/8 checks passed
Tradeable Spread
≤5.0%Spread 11.5% — wide
Adequate OI
≥10,000OI 349,767 — deep
Active Volume
≥500Volume 33,459/day — active
Reasonable Cost
≤$0.50$0.58 to cross — expensive
Strike Coverage
≥5 strikes0 liquid strikes — limited options
Sector Relative≤40%
Sector spread percentile 90% — much wider than sector
Order Book Depth
≥100 contractsDepth 414.1 contracts (bid:214.1 ask:200.0) — adequate
Execution Quality
<1.0%Avg slippage 7.10% — poor
Timing
Is now a good time?
7.9
RiskyFavorable
Considers earnings proximity,
time decay
, and event calendar for optimal entry timing.Risk Checks8/9 checks passed
Term Structure Clarity
|slope| ≥5%Slope -9.4% — contango
IV Percentile Clarity
<30 or >70IV percentile 83% — seller opportunity
Event Detection
≥10pts kinkIV kink 0.1pts — no clear event
Theta/Vega Clarity
<0.5 or >2.0θ/ν ratio 398.18 — favors income trades
Expiration Distribution
≥3 expirations5 liquid expirations — flexible
Event Risk
≥60% (safe)safe window: No earnings detected
Spread Momentum
<1.2 ratioSpread ratio 1.00x — stable
Flow Momentum
≥25% strength + ≥50% consistencyFlow +44% @ 72% consistency — STRONG directional (bullish)
Smart Money Timing
≥40 composite scoreScore 59 (ITM 20% + inst 29%) — moderate institutional
Directional Strategy Fit
Option Buyers
Long Calls6.4
bullishIV fair, bullish flow
Long Puts4.3
bearishIV fair, bullish flow
Premium Sellers
Cash-Secured Put5.8
bullishIV fair, bullish flow
Covered Call4.1
bearishIV fair, bullish flow
For educational purposes only. Not investment advice.