URBNUrban Outfitters Inc
Options Analysis Report•RETAIL-FAMILY CLOTHING STORES
Market Cap $5.9B|NASDAQ
● 2026-05-15$68.79
NEUTRAL
Analysis: 2026-05-14 EOD data
1Y +11.4%YTD -8.7%7D -3.8%
Options Vol
6,721
30D
Implied Move
±20.7%
IV Rank
47%
URBN Options Overview
IV is elevated. Conditions favor premium sellers.
REWARDS
RISK ANALYSIS
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Value
Is IV priced right?
2.0
ExpensiveCheap
Measures whether options are cheap, fair, or rich relative to historical and peer
IV
levels.Risk Checks2/9 checks passed
IV Rank
≤35%IV Rank 79.0% — elevated vs history
IV/HV Ratio
<1.05xIV/HV 1.60x — IV premium over HV
Sector Relative≤50%
Sector percentile 82% — above sector median
Term Structure
<1.1xFront/Back 1.83x — backwardation
Skew Normal
<1.25xPut/Call IV 1.16x — elevated
Absolute IV
<80%ATM IV 69.0% — normal range
Spread-Adjusted Value
<80%Effective IV 194.4% (ATM 69.0% + spread 62.7% + bias) — expensive
Execution Efficiency
<3.0%Total drag 71.01% (spread 62.68% + slippage 8.33%) — high friction
Vega Efficiency
≥5.0Vega efficiency 2.56 (vega 16.031 / spread 62.68%) — spread drag
Sentiment
Bullish or bearish?
3.3
BearishBullish
Analyzes
put/call ratios
, open interest skew
, and flow direction to determine market bias.Risk ChecksVery Bearish - Strong signal (Conviction: -92%, Raw: -81%)
Flow Direction
|net sentiment| ≥25%Conviction-weighted: -92% (strong bearish) — Raw: -81%
OI Skew Magnitude
≥15%|OI skew| 48.6% — call-heavy
Volume-OI Alignment
Same sign, |vol skew| ≥10%Vol skew +77.0%, OI skew +48.6% — aligned
Conviction Quality
≥2/3 conditions0-DTE 2%, far-OTM 15%, avg DTE 30
OI Momentum
|change| ≥3%OI change +0.0% (5d) — stable
Smart Money Flow
|weighted flow| ≥20%ITM: +0%, ATM: -99%, OTM: -74% — strong bearish (ITM/ATM divergent)
Sector Relative≤40% or ≥60%
Sector P/C percentile 18% — very bullish vs sector
Activity
Unusual activity?
7.3
QuietActive
Detects volume surges,
block trades
, and unusual options activity that may signal moves.Risk Checks6/9 checks passed
Volume Surge
≥1.5xVolume 2.0x avg — elevated
Turnover Rate
≥15%Vol/OI 40.6% — high turnover
Strike Concentration
≥60%Top 3 strikes = 50% — dispersed
Multi-Day Persistence
≥2 days1 day(s) elevated — may be one-day event
OI Build
≥5%OI change +76.2% (5d) — building
Sector Relative≥60%
Sector activity percentile 98% — very active vs sector
Trade Quality
≥30%Large trade volume 85% — heavy institutional
Execution Urgency
≥60%Aggressive execution 12% — patient
Flow Conviction
≥30Conviction -92 (bearish) — strong conviction
Liquidity
Can I trade efficiently?
3.1
IlliquidLiquid
Evaluates
bid-ask spreads
, volume depth, and open interest for trade execution quality.Risk Checks3/8 checks passed
Tradeable Spread
≤5.0%Spread 62.7% — wide
Adequate OI
≥10,000OI 16,576 — adequate
Active Volume
≥500Volume 6,721/day — active
Reasonable Cost
≤$0.50$3.13 to cross — expensive
Strike Coverage
≥5 strikes0 liquid strikes — limited options
Sector Relative≤40%
Sector spread percentile 90% — much wider than sector
Order Book Depth
≥100 contractsDepth 146.7 contracts (bid:89.1 ask:57.6) — adequate
Execution Quality
<1.0%Avg slippage 8.33% — poor
Timing
Is now a good time?
8.4
RiskyFavorable
Considers earnings proximity,
time decay
, and event calendar for optimal entry timing.Risk Checks9/9 checks passed
Term Structure Clarity
|slope| ≥5%Slope +83.4% — backwardation
IV Percentile Clarity
<30 or >70IV percentile 79% — seller opportunity
Event Detection
≥10pts kinkIV kink 37.0pts — event priced
Theta/Vega Clarity
<0.5 or >2.0θ/ν ratio 442.85 — favors income trades
Expiration Distribution
≥3 expirations5 liquid expirations — flexible
Event Risk
≥60% (safe)safe window: No earnings detected
Spread Momentum
<1.2 ratioSpread ratio 1.00x — stable
Flow Momentum
≥25% strength + ≥50% consistencyFlow -92% @ 96% consistency — STRONG directional (bearish)
Smart Money Timing
≥40 composite scoreScore 115 (ITM 20% + inst 85%) — HIGH institutional
Directional Strategy Fit
Option Buyers
Long Calls3.6
bullishIV expensive, bearish flow
Long Puts4.8
bearishIV expensive, bearish flow
Premium Sellers
Cash-Secured Put5.4
bullishIV rich premium, bearish flow
Covered Call6.6
bearishIV rich premium, bearish flow
For educational purposes only. Not investment advice.