IV is elevated with unusual activity. Conditions favor premium sellers.
Is IV priced right?
Measures whether options are cheap, fair, or rich relative to historical and peer
IV Rank 81.1% — elevated vs history
IV/HV 1.28x — IV premium over HV
Sector percentile 79% — above sector median
Front/Back 1.24x — backwardation
Put/Call IV 1.16x — elevated
ATM IV 66.7% — normal range
Effective IV 82.0% (ATM 66.7% + spread 7.7% + bias) — expensive
Total drag 11.45% (spread 7.67% + slippage 3.78%) — high friction
Vega efficiency 115.55 (vega 88.629 / spread 7.67%) — efficient
Bullish or bearish?
Analyzes
Conviction-weighted: -20% (bearish) — Raw: -22%
|OI skew| 5.1% — balanced
Vol skew -6.8%, OI skew -5.1% — weak (same direction)
0-DTE 0%, far-OTM 15%, avg DTE 30
OI change +0.0% (5d) — stable
ITM: +7%, ATM: +8%, OTM: -33% — neutral (ITM/ATM aligned)
Sector P/C percentile 79% — very bearish vs sector
Unusual activity?
Detects volume surges,
Volume 1.0x avg — normal
Vol/OI 8.2% — normal turnover
Top 3 strikes = 50% — dispersed
1 day(s) elevated — may be one-day event
OI change +3.8% (5d) — building
Sector activity percentile 85% — very active vs sector
Large trade volume 21% — mixed
Aggressive execution 30% — patient
Conviction -20 (bearish) — mixed
Can I trade efficiently?
Evaluates
Spread 7.7% — wide
OI 468,875 — deep
Volume 38,325/day — active
$0.38 to cross — cheap
4 liquid strikes — limited options
Sector spread percentile 87% — much wider than sector
Depth 143.8 contracts (bid:62.3 ask:81.5) — adequate
Avg slippage 3.78% — poor
Is now a good time?
Considers earnings proximity,
Slope +24.4% — backwardation
IV percentile 81% — seller opportunity
IV kink 14.7pts — event priced
θ/ν ratio 592.44 — favors income trades
5 liquid expirations — flexible
HIGH RISK: No earnings detected; FOMC in 0d (HIGH)
Spread ratio 1.00x — stable
Flow -20% @ 60% consistency — unclear
Score 51 (ITM 20% + inst 21%) — moderate institutional
For educational purposes only. Not investment advice.