VSTVistra Corp.
Options Analysis Report•ELECTRIC SERVICES
Market Cap $47.8B|NYSE
● 2026-05-15$141.90
NEUTRAL
Analysis: 2026-05-14 EOD data
1Y -6.7%YTD -14.1%7D -3.9%
Options Vol
54,800
30D
Implied Move
±13.9%
IV Rank
27%
VST Options Overview
IV is elevated with unusual activity. Conditions favor premium sellers.
REWARDS
RISK ANALYSIS
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Value
Is IV priced right?
5.3
ExpensiveCheap
Measures whether options are cheap, fair, or rich relative to historical and peer
IV
levels.Risk Checks5/9 checks passed
IV Rank
≤35%IV Rank 84.9% — elevated vs history
IV/HV Ratio
<1.05xIV/HV 1.19x — IV premium over HV
Sector Relative≤50%
Sector percentile 90% — above sector median
Term Structure
<1.1xFront/Back 0.98x — contango
Skew Normal
<1.25xPut/Call IV 1.16x — elevated
Absolute IV
<80%ATM IV 51.1% — normal range
Spread-Adjusted Value
<80%Effective IV 65.9% (ATM 51.1% + spread 7.4% + bias) — fair
Execution Efficiency
<3.0%Total drag 14.13% (spread 7.39% + slippage 6.74%) — high friction
Vega Efficiency
≥5.0Vega efficiency 87.95 (vega 64.994 / spread 7.39%) — efficient
Sentiment
Bullish or bearish?
4.6
BearishBullish
Analyzes
put/call ratios
, open interest skew
, and flow direction to determine market bias.Risk ChecksBullish - Moderate signal (Conviction: +17%, Raw: +12%)
Flow Direction
|net sentiment| ≥25%Conviction-weighted: +17% (bullish) — Raw: +12%
OI Skew Magnitude
≥15%|OI skew| 2.1% — balanced
Volume-OI Alignment
Same sign, |vol skew| ≥10%Vol skew -21.6%, OI skew +2.1% — divergent (opposite)
Conviction Quality
≥2/3 conditions0-DTE 41%, far-OTM 15%, avg DTE 30
OI Momentum
|change| ≥3%OI change +0.0% (5d) — stable
Smart Money Flow
|weighted flow| ≥20%ITM: +19%, ATM: +22%, OTM: +7% — bullish (ITM/ATM aligned)
Sector Relative≤40% or ≥60%
Sector P/C percentile 69% — bearish vs sector
Activity
Unusual activity?
6.2
QuietActive
Detects volume surges,
block trades
, and unusual options activity that may signal moves.Risk Checks5/9 checks passed
Volume Surge
≥1.5xVolume 1.6x avg — elevated
Turnover Rate
≥15%Vol/OI 11.4% — normal turnover
Strike Concentration
≥60%Top 3 strikes = 50% — dispersed
Multi-Day Persistence
≥2 days2 day(s) elevated — sustained
OI Build
≥5%OI change +22.1% (5d) — building
Sector Relative≥60%
Sector activity percentile 97% — very active vs sector
Trade Quality
≥30%Large trade volume 59% — heavy institutional
Execution Urgency
≥60%Aggressive execution 43% — patient
Flow Conviction
≥30Conviction +17 (bullish) — mixed
Liquidity
Can I trade efficiently?
5.1
IlliquidLiquid
Evaluates
bid-ask spreads
, volume depth, and open interest for trade execution quality.Risk Checks4/8 checks passed
Tradeable Spread
≤5.0%Spread 7.4% — wide
Adequate OI
≥10,000OI 482,501 — deep
Active Volume
≥500Volume 54,800/day — active
Reasonable Cost
≤$0.50$0.37 to cross — cheap
Strike Coverage
≥5 strikes2 liquid strikes — limited options
Sector Relative≤40%
Sector spread percentile 91% — much wider than sector
Order Book Depth
≥100 contractsDepth 156.1 contracts (bid:66.6 ask:89.5) — adequate
Execution Quality
<1.0%Avg slippage 6.74% — poor
Timing
Is now a good time?
7.0
RiskyFavorable
Considers earnings proximity,
time decay
, and event calendar for optimal entry timing.Risk Checks6/9 checks passed
Term Structure Clarity
|slope| ≥5%Slope -1.6% — flat/unclear
IV Percentile Clarity
<30 or >70IV percentile 85% — seller opportunity
Event Detection
≥10pts kinkIV kink 1.0pts — no clear event
Theta/Vega Clarity
<0.5 or >2.0θ/ν ratio 1889.36 — favors income trades
Expiration Distribution
≥3 expirations5 liquid expirations — flexible
Event Risk
≥60% (safe)safe window: No events detected
Spread Momentum
<1.2 ratioSpread ratio 1.00x — stable
Flow Momentum
≥25% strength + ≥50% consistencyFlow +17% @ 58% consistency — unclear
Smart Money Timing
≥40 composite scoreScore 89 (ITM 20% + inst 59%) — HIGH institutional
Directional Strategy Fit
Option Buyers
Long Calls5.3
bullishIV fair, mixed flow
Long Puts5.6
bearishIV fair, mixed flow
Premium Sellers
Cash-Secured Put5.1
bullishIV fair, mixed flow
Covered Call5.4
bearishIV fair, mixed flow
For educational purposes only. Not investment advice.