IV is low with bearish flow. Conditions favor option buyers.
Is IV priced right?
Measures whether options are cheap, fair, or rich relative to historical and peer
IV Rank 16.3% — cheap vs history
IV/HV 2.14x — IV premium over HV
Sector percentile 24% — below sector median
Front/Back 1.46x — backwardation
Put/Call IV 1.16x — elevated
ATM IV 26.0% — normal range
Effective IV 68.7% (ATM 26.0% + spread 21.4% + bias) — fair
Total drag 26.77% (spread 21.37% + slippage 5.40%) — high friction
Vega efficiency 16.88 (vega 36.074 / spread 21.37%) — efficient
Bullish or bearish?
Analyzes
Conviction-weighted: +11% (bullish) — Raw: +24%
|OI skew| 76.7% — put-heavy
Vol skew -65.8%, OI skew -76.7% — aligned
0-DTE 4%, far-OTM 15%, avg DTE 30
OI change +0.0% (5d) — stable
ITM: +38%, ATM: +4%, OTM: +29% — bullish (ITM/ATM aligned)
Sector P/C percentile 96% — very bearish vs sector
Unusual activity?
Detects volume surges,
Volume 0.4x avg — normal
Vol/OI 0.3% — normal turnover
Top 3 strikes = 50% — dispersed
1 day(s) elevated — may be one-day event
OI change +2.2% (5d) — building
Sector activity percentile 9% — quiet vs sector
Large trade volume 16% — mixed
Aggressive execution 25% — patient
Conviction +11 (bullish) — mixed
Can I trade efficiently?
Evaluates
Spread 21.4% — wide
OI 270,510 — deep
Volume 831/day — adequate
$1.07 to cross — expensive
0 liquid strikes — limited options
Sector spread percentile 36% — tighter than sector
Depth 123.8 contracts (bid:81.8 ask:42.0) — adequate
Avg slippage 5.40% — poor
Is now a good time?
Considers earnings proximity,
Slope +45.7% — backwardation
IV percentile 16% — buyer opportunity
IV kink 8.9pts — no clear event
θ/ν ratio 1785.82 — favors income trades
5 liquid expirations — flexible
safe window: No earnings detected
Spread ratio 1.00x — stable
Flow +11% @ 55% consistency — unclear
Score 46 (ITM 20% + inst 16%) — moderate institutional
For educational purposes only. Not investment advice.