IV is low with bearish flow. Conditions favor option buyers.
Is IV priced right?
Measures whether options are cheap, fair, or rich relative to historical and peer
IV Rank 6.9% — cheap vs history
IV/HV 1.64x — IV premium over HV
Sector percentile 11% — below sector median
Front/Back 1.22x — backwardation
Put/Call IV 1.16x — elevated
ATM IV 21.3% — normal range
Effective IV 55.9% (ATM 21.3% + spread 17.3% + bias) — good value
Total drag 21.89% (spread 17.31% + slippage 4.58%) — high friction
Vega efficiency 6.35 (vega 11.000 / spread 17.31%) — acceptable
Bullish or bearish?
Analyzes
Conviction-weighted: +18% (bullish) — Raw: +17%
|OI skew| 68.8% — put-heavy
Vol skew -62.8%, OI skew -68.8% — aligned
0-DTE 31%, far-OTM 15%, avg DTE 30
OI change +0.0% (5d) — stable
ITM: -86%, ATM: -24%, OTM: +38% — strong bearish (ITM/ATM aligned)
Sector P/C percentile 96% — very bearish vs sector
Unusual activity?
Detects volume surges,
Volume 1.2x avg — normal
Vol/OI 2.3% — normal turnover
Top 3 strikes = 50% — dispersed
1 day(s) elevated — may be one-day event
OI change +3.1% (5d) — building
Sector activity percentile 42% — neutral vs sector
Large trade volume 60% — heavy institutional
Aggressive execution 19% — patient
Conviction +18 (bullish) — mixed
Can I trade efficiently?
Evaluates
Spread 17.3% — wide
OI 789,900 — deep
Volume 18,068/day — active
$0.87 to cross — expensive
0 liquid strikes — limited options
Sector spread percentile 25% — tighter than sector
Depth 216.9 contracts (bid:97.4 ask:119.5) — adequate
Avg slippage 4.58% — poor
Is now a good time?
Considers earnings proximity,
Slope +21.8% — backwardation
IV percentile 7% — buyer opportunity
IV kink 1.8pts — no clear event
θ/ν ratio 342.68 — favors income trades
5 liquid expirations — flexible
safe window: No earnings detected
Spread ratio 1.00x — stable
Flow +18% @ 59% consistency — unclear
Score 90 (ITM 20% + inst 60%) — HIGH institutional
For educational purposes only. Not investment advice.