XOMExxon Mobil Corporation
Options Analysis Report•PETROLEUM REFINING
Market Cap $633.3B|NYSE
● 2026-05-15$152.78
BULLISH
Analysis: 2026-05-14 EOD data
1Y +40.7%YTD +24.6%7D +5.7%
Options Vol
438,190
30D
Implied Move
±8.2%
IV Rank
66%
XOM Options Overview
IV is low with bullish flow and unusual activity. Conditions favor option buyers.
REWARDS
RISK ANALYSIS
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Value
Is IV priced right?
7.2
ExpensiveCheap
Measures whether options are cheap, fair, or rich relative to historical and peer
IV
levels.Risk Checks8/9 checks passed
IV Rank
≤35%IV Rank 28.9% — cheap vs history
IV/HV Ratio
<1.05xIV/HV 1.04x — IV ≤ HV
Sector Relative≤50%
Sector percentile 18% — below sector median
Term Structure
<1.1xFront/Back 1.00x — contango
Skew Normal
<1.25xPut/Call IV 1.16x — elevated
Absolute IV
<80%ATM IV 30.0% — normal range
Spread-Adjusted Value
<80%Effective IV 38.4% (ATM 30.0% + spread 4.2% + bias) — excellent value
Execution Efficiency
<3.0%Total drag 7.46% (spread 4.20% + slippage 3.26%) — high friction
Vega Efficiency
≥5.0Vega efficiency 215.72 (vega 90.602 / spread 4.20%) — efficient
Sentiment
Bullish or bearish?
6.5
BearishBullish
Analyzes
put/call ratios
, open interest skew
, and flow direction to determine market bias.Risk ChecksNeutral - Moderate signal (Conviction: +1%, Raw: -9%)
Flow Direction
|net sentiment| ≥25%Conviction-weighted: +1% (neutral) — Raw: -9%
OI Skew Magnitude
≥15%|OI skew| 14.1% — balanced
Volume-OI Alignment
Same sign, |vol skew| ≥10%Vol skew +93.5%, OI skew +14.1% — aligned
Conviction Quality
≥2/3 conditions0-DTE 56%, far-OTM 15%, avg DTE 30
OI Momentum
|change| ≥3%OI change +0.0% (5d) — stable
Smart Money Flow
|weighted flow| ≥20%ITM: -14%, ATM: +23%, OTM: -13% — neutral (ITM/ATM divergent)
Sector Relative≤40% or ≥60%
Sector P/C percentile 0% — very bullish vs sector
Activity
Unusual activity?
6.5
QuietActive
Detects volume surges,
block trades
, and unusual options activity that may signal moves.Risk Checks4/9 checks passed
Volume Surge
≥1.5xVolume 4.6x avg — hot
Turnover Rate
≥15%Vol/OI 38.3% — high turnover
Strike Concentration
≥60%Top 3 strikes = 50% — dispersed
Multi-Day Persistence
≥2 days1 day(s) elevated — may be one-day event
OI Build
≥5%OI change -1.6% (5d) — stable
Sector Relative≥60%
Sector activity percentile 95% — very active vs sector
Trade Quality
≥30%Large trade volume 87% — heavy institutional
Execution Urgency
≥60%Aggressive execution 33% — patient
Flow Conviction
≥30Conviction +1 (bullish) — mixed
Liquidity
Can I trade efficiently?
7.2
IlliquidLiquid
Evaluates
bid-ask spreads
, volume depth, and open interest for trade execution quality.Risk Checks6/8 checks passed
Tradeable Spread
≤5.0%Spread 4.2% — acceptable
Adequate OI
≥10,000OI 1,143,263 — deep
Active Volume
≥500Volume 438,190/day — active
Reasonable Cost
≤$0.50$0.21 to cross — cheap
Strike Coverage
≥5 strikes1 liquid strikes — limited options
Sector Relative≤40%
Sector spread percentile 18% — much tighter than sector
Order Book Depth
≥100 contractsDepth 247.10000000000002 contracts (bid:128.4 ask:118.7) — adequate
Execution Quality
<1.0%Avg slippage 3.26% — poor
Timing
Is now a good time?
7.0
RiskyFavorable
Considers earnings proximity,
time decay
, and event calendar for optimal entry timing.Risk Checks6/9 checks passed
Term Structure Clarity
|slope| ≥5%Slope -0.3% — flat/unclear
IV Percentile Clarity
<30 or >70IV percentile 29% — buyer opportunity
Event Detection
≥10pts kinkIV kink 0.3pts — no clear event
Theta/Vega Clarity
<0.5 or >2.0θ/ν ratio 5147.84 — favors income trades
Expiration Distribution
≥3 expirations5 liquid expirations — flexible
Event Risk
≥60% (safe)safe window: No events detected
Spread Momentum
<1.2 ratioSpread ratio 1.00x — stable
Flow Momentum
≥25% strength + ≥50% consistencyFlow +1% @ 50% consistency — unclear
Smart Money Timing
≥40 composite scoreScore 117 (ITM 20% + inst 87%) — HIGH institutional
Directional Strategy Fit
Option Buyers
Long Calls6.9
bullishIV cheap, bullish flow
Long Puts5.8
bearishIV cheap, bullish flow
Premium Sellers
Cash-Secured Put5.6
bullishIV too cheap, bullish flow
Covered Call4.5
bearishIV too cheap, bullish flow
For educational purposes only. Not investment advice.