AALAmerican Airlines Group Inc.
Options Analysis Report•AIR TRANSPORTATION, SCHEDULED
Market Cap $9.9B|NASDAQ
● 2026-06-12$14.98
NEUTRAL
Analysis: 2026-06-11 EOD data
1Y +37.4%YTD -3.2%7D +10.1%
Options Vol
94,112
30D
Implied Move
±14.9%
IV Rank
57%
AAL Options Overview
IV is elevated. Conditions favor premium sellers.
REWARDS
RISK ANALYSIS
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Value
Is IV priced right?
4.2
ExpensiveCheap
Measures whether options are cheap, fair, or rich relative to historical and peer
IV
levels.Risk Checks4/9 checks passed
IV Rank
≤35%IV Rank 75.3% — elevated vs history
IV/HV Ratio
<1.05xIV/HV 0.99x — IV ≤ HV
Sector Relative≤50%
Sector percentile 71% — above sector median
Term Structure
<1.1xFront/Back 1.07x — backwardation
Skew Normal
<1.25xPut/Call IV 1.16x — elevated
Absolute IV
<80%ATM IV 60.0% — normal range
Spread-Adjusted Value
<80%Effective IV 84.6% (ATM 60.0% + spread 12.3% + bias) — expensive
Execution Efficiency
<3.0%Total drag 18.77% (spread 12.31% + slippage 6.46%) — high friction
Vega Efficiency
≥5.0Vega efficiency 0.95 (vega 1.169 / spread 12.31%) — spread drag
Sentiment
Bullish or bearish?
5.4
BearishBullish
Analyzes
put/call ratios
, open interest skew
, and flow direction to determine market bias.Risk ChecksNeutral - Moderate signal (Conviction: +4%, Raw: +5%)
Flow Direction
|net sentiment| ≥25%Conviction-weighted: +4% (neutral) — Raw: +5%
OI Skew Magnitude
≥15%|OI skew| 29.7% — put-heavy
Volume-OI Alignment
Same sign, |vol skew| ≥10%Vol skew +17.3%, OI skew -29.7% — divergent (opposite)
Conviction Quality
≥2/3 conditions0-DTE 34%, far-OTM 15%, avg DTE 30
OI Momentum
|change| ≥3%OI change +0.0% (5d) — stable
Smart Money Flow
|weighted flow| ≥20%ITM: +37%, ATM: -23%, OTM: +15% — bullish (ITM/ATM divergent)
Sector Relative≤40% or ≥60%
Sector P/C percentile 52% — neutral vs sector
Activity
Unusual activity?
4.3
QuietActive
Detects volume surges,
block trades
, and unusual options activity that may signal moves.Risk Checks3/9 checks passed
Volume Surge
≥1.5xVolume 0.8x avg — normal
Turnover Rate
≥15%Vol/OI 3.4% — normal turnover
Strike Concentration
≥60%Top 3 strikes = 50% — dispersed
Multi-Day Persistence
≥2 days1 day(s) elevated — may be one-day event
OI Build
≥5%OI change +3.2% (5d) — building
Sector Relative≥60%
Sector activity percentile 65% — active vs sector
Trade Quality
≥30%Large trade volume 33% — institutional presence
Execution Urgency
≥60%Aggressive execution 65% — urgent
Flow Conviction
≥30Conviction +4 (bullish) — mixed
Liquidity
Can I trade efficiently?
4.6
IlliquidLiquid
Evaluates
bid-ask spreads
, volume depth, and open interest for trade execution quality.Risk Checks3/8 checks passed
Tradeable Spread
≤5.0%Spread 12.3% — wide
Adequate OI
≥10,000OI 2,811,231 — deep
Active Volume
≥500Volume 94,112/day — active
Reasonable Cost
≤$0.50$0.62 to cross — expensive
Strike Coverage
≥5 strikes0 liquid strikes — limited options
Sector Relative≤40%
Sector spread percentile 82% — much wider than sector
Order Book Depth
≥100 contractsDepth 630.5 contracts (bid:318.6 ask:311.9) — deep
Execution Quality
<1.0%Avg slippage 6.46% — poor
Timing
Is now a good time?
7.0
RiskyFavorable
Considers earnings proximity,
time decay
, and event calendar for optimal entry timing.Risk Checks7/9 checks passed
Term Structure Clarity
|slope| ≥5%Slope +7.4% — backwardation
IV Percentile Clarity
<30 or >70IV percentile 75% — seller opportunity
Event Detection
≥10pts kinkIV kink 2.6pts — no clear event
Theta/Vega Clarity
<0.5 or >2.0θ/ν ratio 55.92 — favors income trades
Expiration Distribution
≥3 expirations5 liquid expirations — flexible
Event Risk
≥60% (safe)acceptable: FOMC in 5d
Spread Momentum
<1.2 ratioSpread ratio 1.00x — stable
Flow Momentum
≥25% strength + ≥50% consistencyFlow +4% @ 52% consistency — unclear
Smart Money Timing
≥40 composite scoreScore 63 (ITM 20% + inst 33%) — HIGH institutional
Directional Strategy Fit
Option Buyers
Long Calls5.1
bullishIV fair, mixed flow
Long Puts4.8
bearishIV fair, mixed flow
Premium Sellers
Cash-Secured Put5.6
bullishIV fair, mixed flow
Covered Call5.3
bearishIV fair, mixed flow
For educational purposes only. Not investment advice.